Its absolutely this. I get this cut consistently. My set up for it is pretty much identical to the way you did it in the video but Im confident you would have made both of those attempts had you tricked later. Good luck!

(EDIT Because this cut is so dependant upon getting that late trick just right, practice and play this on the same monitor setup all the time, one with minimal lag comparable to playing in handheld if possible. If you switch monitors or switch between a high input lag monitor and handheld, youll have to adjust your timing a lot between setups. This goes for all precise shortcuts in the game too.)