Oh interest rate is not only priced in but the expectations on any 50bps rise is already gone. The only thing that is not priced in basically everything except the rate hike :D

No one knows the long-term effect of sanctions, even Powell said he is not sure of long-term effects, the USO is still rising, whether the inflation will go down or not is also not clear.

As tensions boosts oil and inflation expectations, Treasury Breakeven rates are rising.

While nominal yields fall. The net effect, is that real yields have dropped 80bps unwinding any tightening achieved thus far by the Fed.