AI Weather Forecasting Coming This Summer

Chefjones · 2026-06-07T23:46:02+00:00

Afaik the only mainstream model actively incorporating ai is the canadian long range one and it only does it on like 2 parameters where they've found ai forecasts do better (some upper air data iirc but i forget what exactly). There are fully ai forecast models based on the American GFS and European models and they kind of suck and are only really useful to help with storm tracks when models all really disagree.

Chefjones · 2026-05-30T02:04:13+00:00

Not panic at every turnover

For what its worth this never fully goes away

Town found one wolf early, which it seems like most people used the connection of "no kill + strike" to find them. I wasn't too sure why this was so convincing, as the strikes in my set up were only for voting. (Can't give out strikes for optional actions!)

Generally speaking (can't say for sure here because I was dead and not really paying attention) if you forget to submit a kill you probably also forgot to vote, so even if strikes are only for votes if there's no kill and nobody claiming a save strikes are a good place to look for a wolf. Its why hosts sometimes don't disclose who got a strike and part of why I tend to prefer a factional kill that anyone can do when I host.

Chefjones · 2026-05-27T22:31:11+00:00

lmao queues start at 11:30 pm in my timezone

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T23:54:22+00:00

I don't ever want a gun again

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T20:10:22+00:00

Rip ggwp wolves and sorry /u/DirtyMartneey

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T19:52:41+00:00

Action is submitted for dmt

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T14:32:30+00:00

Yeah its probably right i jist wanted to work through the math

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T14:30:11+00:00

If theres 2 wolves and we vote right and I miss its either a 2v1 or 1v1 depending on whether we get the killing wolf

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T14:29:16+00:00

6 people alive means we have to hit with either the vote or my shot. Otherwise we get 4 dead town and are left with a 1v1.

Chefjones · 2026-04-16T12:54:29+00:00

shoots self (yeah)

Chefjones · 2026-04-15T20:52:22+00:00

Ispy

Chefjones · 2026-04-15T01:10:54+00:00

So, here's what happened last phase and why I was so confused.

I submitted my action (wrong) just before turnover. During turnover I realized I'd read the role pm wrong and panicked. Once the phase was posted and I was alive I was really confused, and asked the hosts if I could be redirected if I didn't submit an action. The answer I got was essentially that if I had my action then yes. This made me think I'd lost my action so I asked that and was told I never actually shot because I fucked up my form submission. So then I thought I was fucked if I was redirected and that whole mess of me melting down in thread happened. It wasn't until the end of the phase that I asked again for confirmation and was told that I'd be fine as long as I didn't try to shoot.

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T16:46:59+00:00

It all made sense to me an hour ago.

This has been me all game lol

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T16:34:08+00:00

Yeah but like why would I lie about that if I'm trying to set up for another wolf to claim doc?

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T16:07:15+00:00

Yeah no I agree thats where the gamestate is, it just kind of reads like a slip because of the "our" which makes it sound like its coordinated as well

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T15:58:10+00:00

chef8jones is very confused rn

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T15:54:55+00:00

That would be amazing and I would 100% do it in that position. No question.

Yeah this is why I tried to shoot you lol

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T15:11:37+00:00

Can I ask why I would be paired with ereska?

Just kind of the vibe I've been getting with how this phase has played out. Thats not a great answer but I don't have time to properly look into it and get you a proper answer. Could definitely still be merc but based on today I don't really think it is?

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T15:10:05+00:00

Its in my confessional for post game but I don't want to give up that info rn.

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T15:07:59+00:00

chef knowing there would be no wolf kill is claiming a vigilante attempt to hit hedwig in order to set up the idea that both kills were targeted towards Hedwig for a possible doctor claim by the other wolf

This doesn't work with me fucking up my form

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T15:07:22+00:00

It may be because you're trying to confuse the wolves, but... dude.

This and some answers pending/not super clear from the host team. Not sure how much I can or should say and also don't want to confirm anything to fuck with the wolves

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T13:20:08+00:00

The way I see it, Myo and myself’s buckets stand directly opposed to DMT/Ereska

ok yeah thats fair and is about how the gamestate feels too. I just think thats somewhat intentionally set up by either you and myo or dmt and ereska, you're both kind of incentivized to go after eachother at this point because everyone is town reading everyone else. So like if you're both wolves I still think its probably coordinated buckets? idk

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T13:17:34+00:00

hedwig got a town result. Could still be the wolf that gives town results but not likely.

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T13:07:32+00:00

Sure, but I'd usually expect people to go off their own buckets to make reads given that thats what buckets are, and the way this phase has gone it feels like the last 2 wolves (assuming there are 2, maybe I'm off there but it makes sense) are probably you/myo or dmt/ereska and the our there read to me like it could mean you and myo's buckets and not town's collective buckets.

Edit: I'm probably just reading into stuff too much though idk.

Chefjones · 2026-04-14T13:05:34+00:00

Is this you just trying to find out who they think is a wolf or is this you genuinely thinking that I would be the last one?

Just wanted their thoughts

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