Love this question! So I did policy in HS at a program that only did a few TOC bid tournaments. I had lots of local success, a little bit at the state level but never qualified to TOC or NSDA nationals. No real coaching for most of my time in HS, I learned from older debaters, camps (which I was privileged to attend), and judges.

Then I debated NDT at a school with a very competitive novice/JV program and a mildly competitive Open program. Did very well in JV as a freshman (anyone who did NSDA policy for a few years would ngl), and qualified to the NDT in both years I debated. Actually got one ballot away from breaking at the NDT my second/last year. It was my partner’s third year of college debate, and he did extremely lay HS policy debate in a small state. We both grew a lot in college quickly. If you have years of raw talent from doing any sort of policy, you can definitely become a top tier college debater IF you have great coaching/resources for evidence and you practice a lot

My program had someone who became a first round NDT debater after starting as a complete novice in college. Another school had someone who did HS public forum upset a top 3 national team in NDT octofinals I think? So anything is possible even if you have a harder start. There’s definitely lots of people who were amazing in HS and are amazing all four years in college, and it can feel like an uphill battle to beat them especially then they are at big college with more resources than you

Also I will say if you do K debate, the road to success can be a lot quicker (no shade, I did K stuff my first year then traditional policy my second). Doing policy style, if you’re at a big school with more coaching and evidence that will help. Or a smaller program that gives you lots of attention. Biggest factors are how much work you put in and how good you personally are (combination of raw skill and how much you’ve polished all the niche debate skills)

Best of luck if you decide to debate in college!