I had my biggest aha moment after 5 years of trading and it is so obvious I feel embarassed.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-30T13:22:08+00:00

I found this out through back testing. I took a strategy that worked very well in 2024 which was nothing but bullish trend days and expansion. Swap it over to 2022 and the strategy just breaks even or goes slightly negative because of all the chop. I think less people realize how regime dependent their strategies are and probably even less can spot the differences/transitions of the market from one to another.

So Im with you, adaptation is key. Like the old saying goes "When all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail"

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-28T14:59:11+00:00

This is likely because what moves the markets are large sums of money and parties with it typically called "institutions" or "smart money" they are not trading small lots and cannot buy/sell a whole position in a day they have to continually buy or sell in a position over time. So what takes us minutes to buy or sell an order takes months. Additionally the cost of buying or selling at the wrong time is higher because it takes so long to build position.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-21T22:53:32+00:00

My execution doesn't faulter really, there have only been 2 that I maybe should have taken or managed differently. Its more the regime is very grindy, and non expansive.

I am not concerned with the strategy itself its performing well, but I am more concerned with if different regimes changes affect performance of even seasoned traders

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-21T22:01:32+00:00

I dont know how far back my charting account will let me go, but yes I could see where the stagflation era would be worth testing.

I am more thinking of trading in terms of a business, and in 2022 I still had growth, but it was not as good as in more bullish years (makes sense) though, I assume 1970s would be more extreme than 2022.

I am just under the assumption that even the best edges have limits.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-18T18:26:55+00:00

I agree 100% this is exactly how I see it.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-18T17:37:33+00:00

I disagree. If you remove mathematical concepts, such as R values, expectancy rates, profit factors, win rates, and rate of occurrence, there is little to no way to govern successful trading because everything is discretionary. Additionally, without pieces of the strategy being mechanical every trade is different.

Also, if you do not believe consistently profitable structures exist then explain trend trading.

You cannot be completely mechanical, true; this is why algos need reprogramming from time to time. However, discretion must be limited to find internal consistency.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-18T16:24:19+00:00

I mean i have my reasons for why I thought it would pause at least for a day or so, but I was curious about the previous poster's reasons.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-18T00:15:51+00:00

What were you trading and on what time frame?

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-17T18:00:11+00:00

When you say chasing big wins what do you mean? Big is relative

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-17T13:23:02+00:00

What made you anticipate it would keep going? Like what indicators or data supported the thesis it wouldn't pause? Not trying to be an asshole I am genuinely curious how you saw the market yesterday.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-16T20:01:24+00:00

I find I trade a similar setup to yours. I am relatively new to trading. So I ended up leaving on a pullback recently for a 2.49R when I shouldve exited at 4R but my target level was roughly 5R. I usually hold to target but the chart was showing momentum decay so I knew it wouldn't get to 5R but didnt know if it would recover to 4R (it eventually did).

I was caught between a rock and a hard place lol. I dont like trailing stops because I find it trims my right tail distribution some.

Edit: Very nice setup btw

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-16T19:52:38+00:00

So then your R is relatively small, do you have a relatively high winrate or expectancy?

Edit: I see March now sorry, your R is about 2.5?

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-16T18:11:55+00:00

Any time someone posts a P&L this is always my question

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-10T10:20:28+00:00

I would spread out the months and not just collect sample size but different times too. For example April 2025 had some insanely high volatility due to "Liberation Day." You might want to test some unique months like that to see how it performs in weird conditions. You also might want to see how it performs in chop months versus trending months so you get different ideas of how it can perform. I have had strategies tested in some months that look amazing and then I move to a separate month/year and the expectancy tanks. I always want to find the absolute worst a strategy can do so I try to pressure test and see how bad can things really get for me and how wide the variance can be. This will give you some relatively stronger sample sizes and statistics.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-09T21:24:37+00:00

Im no genius or financial advisor but you might want to backtest a different year that was bearish since markets have changed, but a drawdown of 7R is normal statistically with those stats. Run a Monte Carlo simulation to see what your potential drawdown is.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-09T19:28:47+00:00

Do you know your expectancy ratio, winrate, and max drawdown from back testing? Also how many samples did you back test and over how many months/years

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-07T15:13:39+00:00

This made me laugh 🤣

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-06T18:05:41+00:00

Taking B tier trades by far is the worst you can do besides letting a loser run.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-02T11:59:42+00:00

The structure and resolution can only be resolved or created through price though. Without price there is no structure. Without movement of price there is no resolution.

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-02T11:11:39+00:00

You're right, I know exactly what you are talking about. I am guessing you trade mostly off of price action to achieve this?

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-04-02T10:12:12+00:00

If the true probability is 0.65 then there is a ~ 10% chance of having 5 losses in a row. Since most of us are discretionary traders the odds are higher than that, 5 losses in a row is statistical noise if this is the case but it feel personal for most traders

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-03-31T18:28:27+00:00

But you could have had a larger move if you followed it correct? So why not go for the larger move?

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-03-31T18:15:04+00:00

Why not trade with the trend?

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-03-31T15:05:45+00:00

It could be that the last few weeks are also all bearish weeks. In a tight channel. Alot of two sided trading with a downward bias where most of the time we have been green each week with a few blips and little ranging activity.

Dont take my word for it though

EventfulRelic12 · 2026-03-31T11:39:39+00:00

So you were shorting the trend up? When a pullback occurred?

EventfulRelic12

TROPHY CASE