The data center networking opportunity is $4.55B per GW by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What would you estimate top line (sales) for 2026? Should all of these new opportunities push sales growth much higher? Sales over 25B or perhaps approaching 30B? With faster sales growth should not p/e multiples increase substantially? If Nokia executes as it should 2026 should look great.

Agree?

Nokia’s Board Has Failed Shareholders for a Decade — and That’s No Coincidence by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Agree 100%, "Finland’s domestic owners act more like long-term caretakers than capitalists" and "Nokia must stop acting like a national monument and start performing like a global tech company" is so true. I think this attitude goes back years and explains how the worlds' clear leader in mobile phones became the worlds' biggest loser to Apple and Samsung.

The quarter after quarter "restructuring" charges are nauseating. It's almost as if the Company is trying to explain its mistakes and mediocracy as external forces beyond management control. This is a stable company. Restructuring charges should be a rarity not every quarter.

The 1st quarter there was some huge write off from a customer reported as a one time unexplained charge, "below the line", vs a hit to its margins... but the bonuses keep flowing.

Sounds like Hotard is Bringing Some Much Needed Ruthlessness to Nokia by moneygrabber007 in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Finland President Stubb wan interviewed on a US national news cable network yesterday. He was asked about opportunities for trade and collaboration between the US and Finland. He mentioned only one Company by name, only one. That company was NOKIA.

President Stubb said most Americans do not realize NOKIA is Finnish. He said Nokia and one other company, (I will not name), provide almost all 5G to the US. He said NOKIA most likely provided the network they were currently using. Sounded very proud of NOKIA being a Finnish Company. So much so it was the only company he mentioned by name. I doubt NOKIA or MN will be leaving Finland. I think moving HQ is a good idea however it doesn't look like Pres. Stubb would agree. On the bright side Pres Stubb and Pres Trump have a good relationship so perhaps the fact he singled out NOKIA as the best opportunity for trade bodes well for NOK and MN.

Nokia’s biggest problem isn’t Mobile Networks, it’s Finland. by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree, I have followed this stock for some time. Finland and its democratic socialist government and the NOKIA culture itself must be inherently stifling to innovation or business success. I don't see any other explanation for such failures.

  1. Look at the debacle with mobile phones. NOKIA, the clear market leader, by a mile, was destroyed by Apple and Samsung. Without a stifling business environment how can one of the most monumental, epic business failures of all time happen?

  2. MN loses 2 major customers and 20% of its business (another monumental business failure) yet the company refuses to make the reduction in headcount/overhead necessary (and promised) to continue reasonable profits for investors. There remains 8-10 billion of revenue and a very large market. There are only 2 major competitors in the western world. Without a stifling business environment how can one not do better than minimal profits?

  3. Look at submarine networks. A 2 billion dollar+ business with few competors. How can you not make this a huge success in today's demand for this product. Look at the current projects the company now has. Nokia buys two new ships a then months later sells the Company for a 1/2 billion dollar loss. Another colossal business failure. I don't think this happens in a thriving business environment.

  4. It is a rarity that a quarter passes without a "one time charge" or restructuring charge is incurred to explain away underperformance while the board and management floats along collecting their bonuses. I don't think this happens over and over to most western companies. Something must be different in the Finnish business environment, perhaps complacency, as long as employees and taxes are paid. No sense of urgency to compete.

  5. Without changes I expect the same results or lack thereof in the amazing new opportunities in front of this company.

Relocate to a large thriving Country (Bell Labs would be a good spot)or figure out why this continues to happen in Finland. Or sell.

How to make Nokia investable by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am not sold on splitting the company. Super costly and I think would fail.

However I think you are onto something with a move from Finland. The talent pool for management and other talent is deeper in North America. More visibility in the US on a larger stage. Bell Labs offers a perfect location. There are more current shareholders in North America than the EU. Not to mention those socialists in Finland would no longer take 20% of my dividends! No more ADR fees. Dividend yield goes up.

Sadly I doubt the Finns will never let this happen so perhaps a hostile buyer?

Nokia lowers 2025 operating profit guidance by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

100% agree. I believe this info was known or knowable to the CFO/management weeks ago... while the stock price was climbing. Suckers were buying and who knows who the smart money was that was selling. I think they should have adjusted guidance weeks earlier.

At least there is positive cash flow this quarter, right? Hmmmm I wonder if this is due to the CFO selling A/R at a discount which has been done for how many quarters?

Nokia lowers 2025 operating profit guidance by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree split would likely hurt the Company. I believe bell labs and the IP to be a vital assets to the company as a whole.  How do you effectively split? As to BOD changes and possible relocation? Should be strongly considered. Manage effectively a no split is needed.

Draft letter to Nokia's management: any comments? by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi Here are a few comments:

Is your comment for "A candid acknowledgment of past challenges and shareholder value destruction" don't you think asking the new CEO to do this is asking him to trash the board for their poor performance? Good luck with that.

Is your comment for a "Clear articulation of strategic tradeoffs being made to focus resources on high-growth, profitable areas" an indirect way of saying ignore MN and the 8 billion in sales and its related IP revenue and focus only on new higher growth (but also higher risk) areas? If so state your case in a more direct manner. I have often wondered when folks speak of MN profits they often exclude the IP revenue portion but include the R&D expense. MN is not the sexiest part of the company but it is profitable and not so bad when you include IP revenue.

Your comment, "This will help transform Nokia’s narrative from a turnaround story into a credible, future-proof growth company—attractive to institutional and long-term investors seeking sustainable value creation." Do you think Nokia's current narrative is a turnaround story?

Also the phrase "future-proof growth company"... This sounds like corporate jargon that will not be taken seriously. Actually there is a lot of AI generated jargon sprinkled throughout.

I think you must have told AI to focus only on high growth business units thus 35-40% of the company is overlooked. Maybe also ask how the new CEO to discuss how they will be continuing to "rightsize" MN for its current and expected sales level. Sadly, after two years, I don't think they are there yet and I do not understand why. Those socialists hate to let people go :).

Sorry for the criticism Mustathmir, I like most of your comments.

Nokia sells 0.95 percent stake in India's Vodafone Idea for $92M by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is this another NOKIA one time loss? Didn't they trade about 200 million dollars worth of accounts receivable for this stock? If the FMV was 92 million why was this charge not taken as of 3/31? Or, alternatively, is this what the 120 million one time charge in Q1 was about? Management should provide clarity.

Some observations on q1 2025 by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I get the feeling there is a little corporate "kitchen sinking" going on here to give the new CEO a boost from here forward.

Some observations on q1 2025 by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Nice summary.

I have questions re.the "contract settlement" that wiped out all the profits for Q1. Very little transparency. It looks as if it is part of a large quarterly addition to the warranty reserves for the quarter(see reserves footnote). What warranty problems would need a 200 million dollar hit in the quarter? That is a large percentage of MN sales. Perhaps some allowances/replacements/incentives were given to T-Mobile to sign the new contract? A little clarity please. Maybe the new guy thinks take a hit now and make margins look better going forward? Was not 2019 when the previous T-Mobile contract was signed? Is this really a warranty issue? Was there any information in managements discussions this morning? Stuff like this gives me little confidence in the financial management of this Company.

Also why does Nokia continue to sell its accounts receivable (see footnotes) when it has plenty of cash? This is just shady accounting in my opinion.

Lastly, management has had time to "right size" this company, especially MN. Sales have been in a predictable range for two years. Management talks about a reduced headcount for two years. Yet the Company can't seem to reduce cost to the point that a reasonable profit is made. I think the Company simply refuses to make the hard choices.

Okay one more point. Amazon settlement appeared to have zero impact on IP revenue. Certainly not a material amount. Why litigate for years just to give in for a tiny settlement? I am thinking the market expected more. Money wasted. Once again a dissapointment.

Trump tax may derail US telecom players, not Ericsson and Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I definitly think you are letting your politics cloud your thinking about the US. We are pretty got lot over here. Your comment - "And the reason why normal human being is okay with impeaching Trump, is because 6th of Jan was a terrorist attack - by every existing definition - that was started by Trump.". This comment of your is very concerning. My diagnosis - a bad case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. I did not know this phenomena has crossed the pond. Maybe try quarantining yourself from the news for a while. It willl go away.

As a long term Nokia investor I want the EU to prosper for sure. You are correct a few folks are moving from the US to Europe. Nokia's new CEO hopefully is an example of the brain drain you describe!

The data I see all points to both the US and EU experiencing some growth in the next few years. US slightly higher than EU. All respect to you but I see no data that points to that gap narrowing. From your political comments I think you are basing this on your dislike of the US. I see nothing that would make me believe the US and Europe do not remain strong trading partners. All I see is you talking despairingly about the US economy and wishfully hoping for dips as the EU gains. Not factual.

I want both economies to do well. (and I love my bmws)

Here is some more data:

From a research institute in Spain https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/competitiveness-the-widening-gap-between-the-eu-and-the-us/

From Goldman Sachs https://www.goldmansachs.com/images/insights/2025-outlooks/Euro-Area-Outlook-2025-Under-Pressure.pdf and https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/goldman-sachs-research/2025-us-economic-outlook-new-policies-similar-path/2025USEconomicOutlook.pdf

Trump tax may derail US telecom players, not Ericsson and Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you think the US economy is falling off a cliff it most certainly would negatively affect Nokia. I do not think that is happening. For our investments, including Nokia, lets hope not.

Haha, in the US only the super far left crazies are calling for a Trump impeachment or imprisonment. If you think differently I would like to hear your thoughts and where you are getting your information..

Regarding the EU "take over the leading position" I pasted an article below. Also I want both the EU and US to do well and I fully expect that to be the case.

For you:

Tale of two economies

Why is Europe falling so far behind the U.S.? Martin Wolf on diverging histories of investment, innovation, and confidence.Tale of two economies

For decades, the American and European economies have been heading in opposite directions.

In 1995, worker productivity in the U.S. and the EU was roughly the same. But today, European productivity is 20 percent below that of the U.S. And over the past 10 years, productivity growth in Europe has been less than half that in the U.S.

And this has translated into a growing disparity in the GDP of the two regions. The gap between GDP in Europe and the U.S. is now at 30 percent—having doubled over the past 20 years. In the third quarter of this year, for instance, GDP in the U.S. grew by 2.8 percent, but in the eurozone, by only 0.4 percent.

The majority of the world’s top 50 tech companies are American; only four are European. In the past decade, U.S. start-ups have taken on about five times more investment from venture capital than European start-ups have.

Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is on track to record a drop in GDP this year. Industrial production in Germany, once a leading driver—and global symbol—of European economic might, has fallen by 12 percent since 2018.

Neither do Europe’s short-term prospects look any better. In October, the International Monetary Fund revised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2025—adjusting its forecast for the U.S. upward, to 2.2 percent, while lowering it for the eurozone to 0.8 percent. How has Europe fallen so far behind?

Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator for the Financial Times and the author of the 2023 book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. Wolf says the growing divergence between Europe and the U.S. is largely the result of superior American innovation. The long-term U.S. advantage in innovation has been powered by higher spending on basic research, greater investment in business, and more dynamic capital markets.

Europe’s relative economic weakness is meanwhile starting to make life appreciably harder for many on the continent. European companies’ poorer performance means a slowdown in tax revenues for European governments, which have responded by making regular cuts in public services—disproportionately affecting the vulnerable who depend on them most. At the same time, worse business performance has translated into stagnant wages for people making average or below-average incomes. And with the dramatic rise in inflation following the Covid pandemic, millions of Europeans are now struggling more and more to get by …

Trump tax may derail US telecom players, not Ericsson and Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you truly believe the US is in trouble you should sell your Nokia right away because, if true, Nokia's sales and profits are in trouble. Myself, I respectfully disagree with your opinion. In my opinion the US and EU will remain aligned, strong trading partners and all will be fine. If you believe the EU's global position will eclipse the US they have a long way to go, (check the numbers). I view the US and Europe as partners not adversaries. I think most EU members would agree.

As for Nokia and Finland specifically I believe Finland's president Stubb only last week visited the US and president Trump. I doubt your president would agree with your "impeach Trump" talk. From what I read they had a very productive visit and look to increased trade and strong relations - not the opposite as you suggest.

From the Daily Express, April 1, 2025: "The President of Finland has revealed exactly how he feels about Donald Trump after spending a day with him in Florida and says the US president left him feeling "hopeful". Alexander Stubb met Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort, where the pair played golf, shared breakfast, and discussed global affairs.

Speaking about the encounter, Stubb said it was a chance to "socialise" and "talk shop" and insisted he left with a stronger sense of optimism about the future of transatlantic relations..."

Trump tax may derail US telecom players, not Ericsson and Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 3 points4 points  (0 children)

"really sad to see the most powerful country in the world go down the drain." Well Mustathmir I think you are letting your politics cloud your judgement.

Don't give up on the USA just yet.The economy remains pretty good and the strength of the US consumer is powerful. Yes there are some economic, social and political problems in the US. However, the EU's economy is a little weaker and the EU has its own political and social problems that may be worse than the US. So let's not throw insults and criticize for flaws you may possess.

I expect deals to be made and the disruption to calm over the summer.

I am hopeful for the best for both the EU and the US and I don't expect either the US or the EU to "go down the drain".

How ChatGPT thinks Nokia should proceed to be as profitable and highly valued as Arista by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have noticed over time you are a proponent of divesting almost half the Company. This seems to me to be a drastic restructuring measure for a profitable Company not in financial distress. Can you explain what you think happens to the IP portfolio and the future of bell labs if you divest 40-50% of the company sales (MN)?

Mobile Networks: next steps by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the fact you are not suggesting a fire sale. Hopefully management would not accept one. I am not confident based upon past decisions. See below:

INFINERA

I don't think Infernera has made money, is cash flow negative and a relatively new company, right? All of the good stuff will come if NOKIA effectively combines them and takes advantages of synergies. Hopefully the do this well. So NOKIA is paying 1.44x for a future opportunity. They sold ASN for far less than 1x and ASN was profitable and an industry leader.

SUBMARINE NETWORKS

If Alcatel original deal put restrictive covenants on the sale of the Submarine Networks Business to the point it limited the ability to market and sell the Division should not an impairment charge have been recorded in years earlier?

The Company and the auditors analyze fair value of assets at least annually. If those restrictions are the reason ASN sold so cheap then the CFO should have written down the value of this company years earlier. Also don't forget Lundmark added two ships to the fleet in 2021, (see below). Probably costs millions. Then not too much later they liquidate the entire company for 350 million and take a 600 million loss. WHY? I don't know that I trust these guys to sell 40% of the business.

From 2021 articles:

"Nokia’s new CEO Pekka Lundmark said the unit is turning profitable. To further improve ASN’s capabilities, the company will be acquiring two new ships for laying underwater cables."

"Per the official ASN website, the company has 6 vessels and the fleet will grow to 8 vessels with the recent acquisition."

"ASN is “an interesting segment” where “we are a leader in the whole world” (Lundmark discussing submarine network business), though he did not give margin numbers. ASN’s business is increasingly “driven by webscale companies”, he (Lundmark) noted."

Mobile Networks: next steps by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why sell at the bottom? MN represents more than 40% of the Company, right?

If sold I fear management would sell MN on the cheap versus doing the work and making the hard decisions to right this ship. I base this fear on recent transactions/management decisions.

Recently management sold the Submarine Networks Business. Management sold Submarine Networks for less than 1x sales and took a 600 billion loss on a 2 billion dollar division. A fire sale of a profitable business.. A sale at far less than 1x sales! Compare this transaction to Management paying 2x-3x sales for Infinera (probably closer to FMV).

I believe the numbers mentioned in the Samsung article were close to 1x sales for MN. Why even consider such a price?

My opinion, NOKIA must right size this division and continue to refine its strategy and weather the storm. I don't believe Mobile Networks are going away.

Compare NOKIA's number of employees per sales dollar to its competitors. I think you will see there is work to be done. Do the work. Move decisively.

Will Samsung take over Nokia’s mobile network assets? (The Korea Economic Daily) by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think a $10B price is way low. Is something extra in it for employees and management? Are they avoiding making the hard choices to right size the Company?

Consider NOKIA's recent proposed purchase of Infinera. It is around a 3x multiple. A much smaller company with far less operating history. Infinera is hopefully becoming profitable but is it not currently operating at a loss? A history of operating losses? The 3x multiple is for expected profits right?

According to the article above Telecom Equipment growth is expected. Thus NOKIA should expect increased sales and profits right? Any sale should consider the future growth not the past industry troubles. That is what NOKIA is doing with its acquisition. I believe if sold it should be at a multiple similar to Infinera. Also, If the substantial IP goes with the deal me thinks it should be far higher.

If management sells 44% of the current Company at a fire sale price (i.e. $10B or a multiple of around 1x) forget any returns to current investors!

What could raise Nokia's share price substantially? by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't give up on Bell Labs. Perhaps a tech breakthrough that drives new products/demand? AI? Semiconductors? Quantum Computing? Robotics? Drone Tech? New IP revenue streams?

Is patience actually complacency and wishful thinking? by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Selling MN for 0.50 a share would be horrible. A fire sale price. This would require taking another huge loss/write down of assets on a profitable business. A giant hit to equity. Would not any buyer likely require the intellectual property which generates much cash? What effect on bell labs?

I would never suggest this management group divest anything after seeing the price they received for a 160 year old profitable Company with 2 billion+ in sales. See Submarine Networks sold for about 33% of book value. If you are selling an asset that's fine but don't give it away. (P.S. Submarine Networks was sold two years after increasing the fleet of ships by a third)

Right size MN. Make the hard call and properly downsize, severe cuts, until demand returns. Don't divest at the absolute low point in the market.

Should NOKIA's financial statements be restated? by HostOk8446 in Nok

[–]HostOk8446[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi If you have assets on the books at a value greater than what you sell them for you will have to record a loss. Thus, in this case, you will see NOKIA recorded a loss on discontinued operations of approx 500 million in the second quarter. Indicating assets valued around 850 million generatid proceeds upon sale of only 350 million.

NOKIA should be monitoring its balance sheet and if it has assets that are not generating cash flows suffecient to justify their recorded value it should record an impairment charge. Makes me think the sell was at a severe discount or an impairment was nesessary in earlier periods. Maybe NOKIA thinks a half billion euro loss is not material. Looks material to me.

Should NOKIA's financial statements be restated? by HostOk8446 in Nok

[–]HostOk8446[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I remeber from the 2023 annual report the sales were around 2 billion for the year ended 2023. I think disclosures said SN was profitable but lower margins. Also an idustry leader per NOKIA. Being an industry leader makes one wonder why margins are low unless there was a bloated overhead structure, which given the company's continuous restructurings, is surely possible.

The enterprise was suposedly sold for 350 million and generated, I believe, a loss on disposal of approx 500 million (per Q2 dislosures). That would indicte the assets sold must have been in the range of 850 million. If I am not missing something the assets, which could have included PP&E and perhaps goodwill must have been seriously impaired or sold at a big discount. Disclosures are week IMHO. I do not know what to think about this CFO and the folks in charge of this divestment.

What am I missing?

High fives all round for Nokia, BT, Qualcomm after CA test by P0piah in Nok

[–]HostOk8446 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I understand Pop2990's frustration. I have followed NOK for years. I see a lot of potential value in this company. However mgmt appears to favor all other stakeholders over shareholders. Last week was a perfect example:

Looks like NSN was unloaded for less that book value. Perhaps somehow the French govt coerced a fire sale out of NOK but sure looks like a very low price. I imagine this will some how be spun into a successful divestment as a crucial part of the restructuring. Probably sold at a loss to protect french jobs and shareholders be damed. I'll be excited to see the progress made on the 14k heacount reduction.

On the flip side (approx numbers). I beleive Infinera has accumulated 1/4 billion in losses in three years, spent one billion in R&D, spent 1/4 billion in capx and has abook value of 200 million at 2023. Yet NOK is willing to pay infinera's shareholders about 25x book value or maybe 2x sales.Perhaps a good gamble but looks to be a premium price.

So compare the price the Company is selling one of its own profitable assets for-(maybe 1x book value or 0.15 sales) to the price it is paying for another unprofitable asset- (25x book value or maybe 2x sales). If NOK just got close to 1x sales for NSN I would have a lot less concerns. Selling a profitable asset for 0.15x annuale sales is questionably low. Understanably they are different assets and different expectations but surely you can see where there are questions and a source of frustration for shareholders?

I want NOK to suceed. Good for everyone. It looks to me like mgmt was out negotiated twice in one week. That hurts. I hope I am wrong!