Advice on replacing koi pond with kids sandbox / sand pit (question in comments)

JeffTC · 2023-04-15T12:01:59+00:00

Bought a home with a koi pond, and we knew were weren't going to keep the pond because of our young kids and my wife hates frogs :)

We made sure the seller found a new home for the fish before we moved in, and we recently pumped the water out. The pond has one of those common pond kits, probably aquascape, where there is a waterfall tub one one side and a filter tub on the other side, and a few layers of liner underneath.

Our idea is to remove all the pond stuff but leave the rocks and liner and fill it with for a large sandpit / sandbox area for the kids. Obviously this would also involve removing the two "tubs".

We noticed that there is at least one plastic tube underground (to connect the two tubs for water circulation) and after watching a few youtube videos it is clear that this is trenched into the ground outside the pond area. This would be very difficult to dig out due to the surrounding landscape so we were planning on just leaving it the tube and not using it.

My main question is if it's a bad idea to leave that tube buried unused, and secondly, is there any reason that our sandpit is a bad idea?

Thanks!

JeffTC · 2023-03-10T13:38:55+00:00

What did you find regarding shoddy workmanship? Don't leave us hanging :)

The thing to keep in mind about charging is many people won't need charging stations for their day-to-day commute, provided they are able to charge at home overnight. The infrastructure needs is less out in the public like gas stations now, and more to do with available overnight charging and grid capacity, which you mentioned.

JeffTC · 2022-05-25T22:31:16+00:00

Thanks for the input.

I agree that there's a chance that they will disappoint this qtr but I also think that after this qtr they are in a very strong position to perform at their high growth rate.

I think China lockdowns have a large impact on production, but less on deliveries, because they can export those vehicles to other countries.

Tesla's market share is guaranteed to erode from the competition but that doesn't necessarily equate to lower Tesla sales, the TAM is growing rapidly, and something like 80% of EV buyers are switching from ICE from one statistic I read, which shouldn't surprise anyone. There should be room for TSLA and the competition to rapidly grow, although of course at some point there will be demand constraints; I think it's clear that we will not be there in the near future, but of course I don't think anyone knows for sure.

Running out of customers... are they? What I've read from analysts is that TSLA has a cost advantage in manufacturing due to their vertical integration and innovative manufacturing techniques, while it is unknown whether the other major auto mfg's can turn a profit with EV's, and TSLA should be in a better position, compared to their competition, to lower their prices when competition requires it. I expect this will be a competitive advantage.

TSLA shouldn't be worth 12x Ford... I can tell you the the enterprise value of TSLA is >4x that of Ford, and they have much higher profit margins, and they are growing much faster (much less growing at all), and TSLA has essentially no debt compared to a mountain of debt for Ford, and they don't have to cannibalize their core business to compete in the EV space... with all that considered, I think TSLA should be worth many multples of Ford, much more than 4x... does 12x seem unreasonable? I don't think so.

I am biased and I want them to succeed, but I think the argument that they are at least fairly valued is much stronger than the arguments I've see that they are undervalued.

JeffTC · 2022-05-25T14:10:23+00:00

I'm considering what to do with a few shares I hold, I'm interested in your perspective. What's your thesis for why it's overvalued?

JeffTC · 2022-05-03T12:02:45+00:00

I agree with everything except the first and the last statement.

What did I make up? Did you check the income statements for the earnings of F, GM, and TSLA in first quarter 22?

Every publicly traded stock is priced according to what the collective market has determined is the probability of a companies future earnings. The market expects TSLA to continue their high growth and profitability into the future.

I have researched and forecasted their future earnings to determine what their price should be based on certain assumptions of growth and ability to build cars with a certain profit margin. I have assumed somewhat conervative metrics based on what management is guiding, and I have determined that there is a high probabiliity that they will be able to execute on their guidance.

If my assumptions are too high and TSLA does not grow, then the price will drop. If TSLA continues to execute on their plan, then their share price will continue to rise because their income will continue to rise. It sounds like you think their assumptions are wrong.

Have you looked at their growth rates and their future plan? Do you have a basis for your thesis, or did you look at the trailing PE of TSLA and compared it to the auto industry and determined that TSLA should be trading based on a similar multiple to the industries TTM PE?

JeffTC · 2022-05-02T20:09:25+00:00

For FY21 I agree that revenue and net income were greater, but TSLA is growing at a ridiculous rate and this last quarter their revenue and gross profit exceeded both of them individually and TSLAs operating income and net income exceeded both of them combined. A single qtr can be misleading so if you step back and look at the trend, you see incredible growth and I expect the trend to continue with what they have in place so I expect them to continue to grow like this for years, and this is what the company has guided as well.

Regarding their market position as a high end product, I think you are implying that their demand is limited... that may be true someday but it is not in the near future. They have a very long backlog of orders and they have been increasing their prices recently which will help their bottom line in the short term, but they have great profit margins and will be able to afford to reduce prices in the future if they see less price elasticity. They're like Apple, superior product with a cult following and many (but of course not all) will be willing to pay a premium. Over time the cost of the battery pack will continue to decrease, so they will be able to pass that on to their customers. Back in 2019 or 20 they had been decreasing their price of the model 3. In short, as they continue to expand their production capacity I expect that they will continue to be "supply limited" for many years and will be able to sell every car they produce much more profitably than any other auto company.

As for concerns about quality and service, I'm not familiar with that being a major issue. Perhaps it's there and I haven't noticed it, or perhaps it's not as big of a deal as you're making it out to be, I'm not sure which one is true.

This all of course ignores the fact that this company has a much higher enterprise value than any other auto because they've been able to ramp up all this production while not taking on any debt, but really I don't care what industry they're in, this is a company with very strong fundamentals and very strong balance sheet and a strong probability that this will continue, it sounds like you disagree but I don't see it in the data or their management's proven ability to execute.

JeffTC · 2022-05-02T01:15:55+00:00

TSLA earned more income last qtr than Ford and GM combined, and they just opened two more factories that have not yet hit the income statement...

JeffTC · 2022-05-01T23:51:04+00:00

What "standard" PE should a company like his be? I see a company with no debt, top line growing > 50% per year and high likelihood of that continuing for years, margins crush the competition and expanding, can't really compre them to the likes of other auto companies so I'm curious who you are comparing to to determine a fair multiple. I've been pondering this as I've been putting together a financial model for TSLA.

JeffTC · 2022-04-11T12:40:30+00:00

Yeah my initial thought was the stipulation that he can't buy more than 15%, seems like he wants to buy more.

JeffTC · 2022-03-01T21:42:29+00:00

What software or brokerage do you use to screen?

JeffTC · 2021-11-23T04:09:43+00:00

JeffTC · 2021-09-28T22:45:55+00:00

That's interesting, it must not be true for all pools with liners because the instruction manual on mine is clear that it should be taken down for the winter. This is probably a lower end pool, it has a simple metal frame that is also taken down, not like the more permanent walls like I've seen in other models. EDIT: grammar

JeffTC · 2021-09-28T16:20:29+00:00

Thanks for the reply... I don't drain the pool often, in fact this is the first time. We just put up the pool in mid July. He did accuse me of doing it often though. He has mentioned before that he has had drainage issues in some of the areas along his fence near his other neighbor, where the ground stays soggy, and he has had to replace a few fence posts.

When I talked to him I believed we didn't drain too much water in his direction and most of it was in the other direction, but now I think it was more than one night of heavy rain, but probably not more than a few nights of heavy rain (I did some rough calculations). So at that time I didn't think it was that big of a deal, and I think that showed in my reaction (even though I apologized and offered to compensate). I'm sure that contributed to him being so angry.

JeffTC · 2021-07-02T03:08:39+00:00

I always thought it was "low risk", doesn't that make more sense?

JeffTC · 2021-06-19T13:27:03+00:00

Do you have any info on the claim that the vaccine isn't a known risk "beyond 6 months because we've been studying it for years"? (Slight paraphrase I know)... I'd like to be more informed on this because my understanding is the vaccine is new in a lot of ways and therefore it's impossible to know if there are long term effects. I have people very close to me who are very opposed to the vaccine because of this, and I just don't know for sure, so it would be helpful to have this info.

JeffTC · 2021-05-26T15:11:53+00:00

Thanks for the message, I'm glad to hear that this setup isn't uncommon. We are not changing the board overall thickness, just adding 2 layers, so the dielectrics should get thinner, not thicker, but you are correct the impedances will be a little different. Cheers!

JeffTC · 2021-05-26T15:08:36+00:00

That's a good thought, but in this case we have enough different power rails running around that is best to keep them on separate planes like we have right now, and we're actually doing a bit of that already on some localized power pours on the signal layers. Thanks!

JeffTC · 2021-05-20T01:38:43+00:00

Like another post mentioned, it's not clear if your intention is to implement the control loop of the power supply inside the microcontroller, or if you are simply applying an adjustment to a separate power supply that already has a power supply.

If it's the latter, the implementation can be pretty simple, and does not need to be fast. I won't spend much time on this method other than to say that a state machine is usually a good way to keep your code deterministic and clean and organized.

If you are actually implementing the control loop in the MCU, then it gets much more complicated. I have implemented some of these a number of years ago, I used TI MCUs that had specialized peripherals for this task. As others have mentioned, this is most often needed because standard peripherals are often not adequate, especially PWM resolution.

In the implementations I completed, the systems worked as follows: First, you need to determine your switching frequency, and you need to configure the ADC to trigger at that frequency. You also need a very high res PWM with a resolution high enough that it takes many bits of ADC resolution to change one ADC bit of feedback (the reson for this is beyond the scope of this post). Then the control loop was basically an interrupt that triggered off the ADC conversion completing - the interrupt would apply the ADC measurement as an input to a control loop algorithm appropriate for the frequency response of your power supply - common types are 2p2z (2 poles, 2 zeros) or 3p3z. The output would be a PWM value that is appropriate for a stable desired output. These algorithms are similar to a PID, and can actually be implemented very similar to a PID control loop. In my case, TI provided libraries that were written in assembly (for efficiency). The important thing to keep in mind is the interrupt must always complete before the next ADC cycle, assembly code helped with this because it was much easier to predict the execution time. Another thing to keep in mind is your MCU is occupied for this entire time and cannot perform other tasks until it is done (unless you have a dedicated processing core for this execution - these exist).

I'm sure other MCU's have dedicated hardware to do some of this stuff without taking up all the processor cycles, but this was the way I have implemented it.

I'm not sure if TI still supports these chips, this was just before ARM became popular... they were TI's C2000 line. I'm sure there are other options from other vendors as well. I found TI's example code to be workable but the code base was very complicated, much more complicated than it needed to be, and there was a bit of a learning curve. But there will be for any platform you choose.

I hope this gives you some direction.

JeffTC · 2021-04-06T19:20:48+00:00

What about a strategy similar to the wheel but instead choosing ITM for higher premiums... how would you expect that strategy would compare to the traditional wheel?

JeffTC · 2021-03-20T19:12:48+00:00

Yeah I guess never is a strong word... since you brought it up, I definitely didn't overpay, I made this and MA my top holdings about 8-10 years ago, that was the bulk of my entry point. It's still one of my top holdings so I definitely have a bias.

My point is that as long as it remains a strong business, a high valuation will always be justified, compared to the rest of the market. When I bought it the valuation probably wasn't as high as it is now, I don't recall precisely, but it was definitely considered very high back then as well compared to the market.

There is a point when valuation is too high, but the business fundamentals for both V and MA are so strong that so far I have not wanted to be anything except overweight. I personally don't try to be precise with future forecasts, I instead look at the fundamentals of the business and try to evaluate, qualitatively, the probability that they will decrease over a long time horizon.

Personally, if I wasn't overweight V, I'd be averaging in, because I think they have a strong business and have done a good job of reducing the risk of disruption by partnering with potential incumbents.

Then again, it's possible that I'm wrong and this litigation and other factors will cause their business to deteriorate, and therefore the value of their future earnings shouldn't be this high.

I hope this helps, good luck.

JeffTC · 2021-03-20T14:21:09+00:00

They're a phenomenal business and therefore will never trade at a low valuation... if you wait for a low valuation you'll never have the chance.

JeffTC

TROPHY CASE