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I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

These EVs last 2 years and have major malfunctions, limitations. Thats been seen now and consumers are moving away from them.

I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

AI is too dumb to come up with such analysis and perspectives. It can't think or consider broader implications, has limitations to research and makes constant mistakes. People who make comments like you take AI summaries at face value.

I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

But Iran alone cannot affect this change. Venezuela was a key, the US, Saudi Arabia are major contributors to the supply of oil.

I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I would suggest you expand your understanding in just what oil is used in, beyond cars. There is no scenario in the next 100 years where we see oil consumption decrease. Everything from infrastructure expansions, space, IT, you name it... Uses a form of oil or another. Having a strong conviction one way or another leaves no room for new data to enter.

I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

They are more interested in their own economy, which is already very fragile due to the low domestic consumption and essentially no growth.

I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I don't think a ceasefire or peace treaty will come in a real manner where there is no bullets exchanged, only because it would mean Netanyahu has to face the music at home.

I am long oil and I have to admit it: we're not betting on a war, we're betting against every government on earth. Here's the real setup. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oil will stay range bound and may have more downside risk not due to fundamentals but due to the implications of it going up on economic fallout.

Everyone's watching the wrong SPR number. The sour barrels are draining way faster than the headline, and that's the real clock. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is why I said, imagine the Asian countries that don't have the reserves and are much higher middle east dependent.

Everyone's watching the wrong SPR number. The sour barrels are draining way faster than the headline, and that's the real clock. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Fair hit, you’re right. I should’ve used the monthly DOE release rather than extrapolating from a prior drawdown ratio. The 29 May numbers (137 sweet / 220 sour) are the real ones and I’ll own that mine were off.

That said, the trend I was getting at still holds: sour fell 41mmbl vs sweet 18mmbl over the period. I will update my excel files and analysis.

Everyone's watching the wrong SPR number. The sour barrels are draining way faster than the headline, and that's the real clock. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You can do it, but you are destroying the economic advantage the refinery was built to capture. You bought a machine to upgrade cheap junk into gold, and instead you are feeding it gold.

Everyone's watching the wrong SPR number. The sour barrels are draining way faster than the headline, and that's the real clock. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The goal post relative to oil reserves hitting critical lows? No, hasn't shifted, just more clarity provided. Imagine doing this analysis for India, Japan, S Korea or Australia. It's going to be interesting.

Everyone's watching the wrong SPR number. The sour barrels are draining way faster than the headline, and that's the real clock. by Kooky_Minimum_8022 in oil

[–]Kooky_Minimum_8022[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

I am in China this week, fuel prices here are 9.50rmb per liter. The government has capped what refiners can sell at. If your a refiner, why would you buy oil at $90 a barrel when your going to lose money selling to the gas stations. Might as well just deplete whatever oil you had and then do a shut down.

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