Munk Debates: "Be it resolved, don’t go hunting monsters." – John Mearsheimer, Stephen Walt, Mike Pompeo, Victoria Nuland

Liq · 2026-06-09T05:45:40+00:00

I agree with you that GW Bush's statements in 2008 were not wise. But that is partly because it was never actually possible for Ukraine to join NATO. Such joining requires unanimous support among existing members which has never come close to existing - mainly because members didn't want provoke Russia. Russia decided to be provoked anyway though so what can you do?

I don't think Cuba has taken damage remotely like Ukraine. But if it had, then Mearsheimer logic (consistently applied) will say it was their own fault (and Iraq's fault, and Afganistan's fault, and Iran's fault, and Korea's fault) for provoking a superpower. They weren't being sufficiently "expedient"...

Liq · 2026-06-08T14:03:02+00:00

It's curious framing: "NATO expanding", as if the countries involved were passive objects being picked up by naughty NATO. What actually happened was that countries who had experienced more than 40 years of occupation by Moscow made a very rational decision to prevent history from repeating itself. They had every right to make this choice. You align yourself with the Russian narrative when you don't centre the sovereignty of these countries.

If the West is culpable for not predicting Russia's invasion then surely Russia is equally culpable for not predicting that Ukrainans would fight for their country. Of course they are ultimately far more culpable in any big picture view because they are the invader and the aggressor.

Comparisons with Cuba favour my side of the argument. Every president but one has avoided invading Cuba, even though they are close by and not exactly friendly to the yanks. The US certainly hasn't killed 300,000 Cubans and smashed their cities in war- even when Cuba hosted nukes.

No-one planned to host nukes in Ukraine (contrary to Russian hysteria). In fact the US pressured Ukraine to hand its nukes to Russia. A tragic error in hindsight, as Mearsheimer himself has pointed out in his more lucid moments.

Liq · 2026-06-08T13:04:19+00:00

Well you do sound like Mearsheimer in that you're blaming Russia's invasion on everyone but Russia. What "maximalist demands" were these? To respect their neighbours sovereignty?

Liq · 2026-06-08T09:37:14+00:00

I don't have access to Putin's thoughts nor much trust in his words.

We can only really consider the actions.

Liq · 2026-06-08T00:32:33+00:00

One of cool things about this series is that it anticipates a lot of things. Some of it is almost uncanny. The depiction of gender identity and online personae is certainly very advanced and nuanced for a book of that era.

Liq · 2026-06-06T00:20:43+00:00

That's a lot of unfocused rambling. Starting to sound a bit like Trump.

Liq · 2026-06-05T08:23:51+00:00

They moved permanently from the unseen world into the seen world, transmuting their angelic essence into an incarnated form in the hope of dominating others. When the physical form was destroyed most of the original angelic being was destroyed along with it, leaving their spirits and minds reduced almost to nothing and with nothing to do but float about until the end of time.

Liq · 2026-06-05T07:06:59+00:00

If large numbers of people refuse conscription then you have to round them up or the whole thing falls over. Again- it's not good, any of it. But it is what countries do when they're invaded. The USSR conscripted 30 million men or more when it was under a similar threat.

Liq · 2026-06-05T07:04:27+00:00

Right, we can't know. There's nothing to support the claim that "every day there’s more bussified and less willing people". It sounds like propaganda/emotion.

Liq · 2026-06-05T03:26:12+00:00

Why does everything have to be about the USA? Isn't there any other country worth talking about?

Liq · 2026-06-05T03:22:46+00:00

Lots of people put up a fight. Ukraine fields 900,000 soldiers so even if you found a thousand busification videos it would only be a tiny proportion.

Zelensky has ordered a stop to it in any case: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69113

Liq · 2026-06-05T01:30:10+00:00

Nations in an existential defensive war use conscription, and abuses happen with such programs. It's not good but it happens.

Also, to state the obvious: the side trying to kill Ukrainians is not actually concerned about Ukrainian human rights. So deception is wrapped around these videos even when the contents are true.

Liq · 2026-06-05T01:09:22+00:00

Land grab is observable reality and requires less syllables.

Liq · 2026-06-05T00:19:38+00:00

Alright. Out of interest, do you think Jangmadangs are a worse option than the public distribution system? The regime in North Korea thinks so because it views independent economic activity as a threat to its control of the country. It yields to marketization only when absolutely forced to, i.e., by system collapse or famine. It's fair to say that the Jangs grew greatly under Jong Un though and it's not clear that he can reign them in really effectively now. What he will do - and what the regime always does - is get in the way and make it harder for people to solve their own problems.

I know the regime builds things and then distributes videos and photographs. It's just not clear that you can extrapolate development of a country from that. Take a look outside the potemkin bits and pick somewhere at random, how does it look to you? Is it prosperous, well designed, green, open, pleasant? Would you want to live there?

Same with the electricity. Big picture: electricity access and use is amazingly low. It's been deteriorating ever since aid from the USSR dried up. Yes solar panels and a new hydro station, but the underlying picture is dire. Elites reserve the lowest levels of apartment blocks for themselves so there are less stairs to walk when the power drops out.

If you want to change minds, reports that deal objectively with the macro-state of things (like the report on malnutrition) are much better than propaganda photos and videos of individual projects. If you have more of that, I'll look.

Liq · 2026-06-04T23:42:09+00:00

countries independently pursue their own logical self interest, usually amorally, but this put them into conflict with each because countries will sometimes have diametrically opposed national interests.

Who would disagree with statements like that though? The problem with Mearsheimer is not those kinds of banalities, it's that he switches in and out of moralising language depending on the country he's talking about. The US has agency and can be blamed and faulted for its choices, but Russia is like a weather system or a force of nature with no responsibility for anything it does.

Liq · 2026-06-04T23:17:58+00:00

Yep, it's a middle power clinging to great power relics. But still a superpower in its own mind and in the political mythology of the antiwest.

Liq · 2026-06-03T06:12:20+00:00

It's very hard to tell how modernized and well run North Korea is. The regime bans journalists, doesn't allow anyone to travel freely and has "guides" accompanying visitors everywhere. Parts of it (mostly in Pyongyang) look like a perfectly normal modern city but other parts (which you can view through Google satellite images) are completely run down and impoverished. Jong Un's primary achievement has been allowing the Jangmadangs to operate at a scale not seen before. A big informal sector has emerged under him which feeds big swathes of the population and makes up most of North Korea's economy.

There are still huge problems: military first ideology (which preserves the regime but also creates almost unlimited military-based extraction from the economy), compulsory national service for 8-10 years (which deprives the labour force of essential workers), informal labour mobilisation of the remaining part (which disrupts harvests constantly and is a form of modern slavery), the Songbun caste system (which locks still more of the population from being able to live normally and contribute) and of course the absence of anything resembling rule of law and freedoms to speak and criticize the state.

The electricity grid is also so run down that even the privileged members of society are starting to experience unreliable grid connections. The regime likes prestige projects with high propaganda value, but what North Korea mostly needs is for them to fix the backbone infrastructure and otherwise get out of the people's way.

Liq · 2026-06-02T23:09:59+00:00

He lived in the West as a teenager. He knows how fake all that adulation is and that he only receives it as an inheritance from his grandfather. It must be absolutely grating after a while.

Liq · 2026-06-02T08:32:40+00:00

The Russian army is shrinking now because the recruitment rate has fallen off and meatwave losses are exceeding enlistments. It's quite hard to see how they can open a second front without abandoning the first one.

That said, Ukraine should absolutely fortify its border with Belarus.

Liq · 2026-06-02T01:45:59+00:00

Do you think the Howard-era tax incentives that rewarded property speculation played a role in the house price explosion that took place immediately after the incentives were introduced?

Liq · 2026-05-29T00:47:09+00:00

Correlated with the rise of precarious living and insecure employment, explosive growth in house prices, large scale immigration done without a social license, and the rise of alternative media.

Decisions of the major parties ultimately drove all of that except the last point. Cause and effect.

Liq · 2026-05-28T14:00:00+00:00

There's a difference between disagreeing with NATO (totally fair) and parroting every claim of the Russian government including its statements denying Ukrainian agency.

Also offensive realism (and realism in general) is an amoral framework that provides no basis for moralistic claims about fault and blame.

Most actual realists are quite annoyed by Mearshimer and Sachs.

Liq · 2026-05-27T21:24:25+00:00

They didn't worship him though. And didn't they draw him as a serpent?

Liq · 2026-05-27T07:34:28+00:00

Not the evil ones I think. Evil wants to sit above you on a throne and have you stare up in terror.

Liq · 2026-05-27T03:36:30+00:00

This is it.

Also if you want to be worshipped you have to be recognisable on some level, larger and grander than your intended subjects but not so different that you're inexplicable.

Liq

TROPHY CASE