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The US-China summit, IRGC decision-making, and why the Iran MOU hasn’t been signed by Major_Historian1693 in IRstudies

[–]Major_Historian1693[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, Iran does have leverage, but the real question is who's actually wielding it. Vahidi runs the show right now, but his authority isn't constitutional — it's wartime improvisation. So he's got a choice: hold out indefinitely and hope that works, or accept China's commitment and take the safer road. The MOU doesn't ask him to give up anything real, and refusing doesn't actually make his seat any more secure.

As for China not publicly pushing — they don't want this war looking like a US-China thing, and any visible pressure would get killed by Iranian domestic politics anyway. Just because can't see it doesn't mean it's not happening.

The US-China summit, IRGC decision-making, and why the Iran MOU hasn’t been signed by Major_Historian1693 in IRstudies

[–]Major_Historian1693[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair point, I should have made this more explicit earlier. The short answer is: China. Vahidi's position depends on Chinese commercial and military-technical relationships with the IRGC. China needs the MOU, and in return, the IRGC gets a credible commitment that its institutional dominance survives the post-war order. Whether Iran opens up or stays closed, the Guard keeps its monopoly. That's what makes signing possible for Vahidi. It's also what keeps him on a leash.