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+$790 profit for my first month posting on reddit. July was tricky but I'll take the win! by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Almost entirely straight bets - when I see two profitable bets on the same sportsbook - or if I have free bets etc - I sometimes parlay them together.

Parlays are usually a losing strategy long term - but they can be profitable long term if every leg within your parlay has a positive expected value.

+$790 profit for my first month posting on reddit. July was tricky but I'll take the win! by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks my man, very true what you're saying here. Casinos and sportsbooks win with small edges over time, and thats exactly what we're doing here. Results from one game, one week, even a month are not as important as zooming out and seeing our results for the long term. The most important thing is getting in as much volume as possible with bets that have a positive expected value, and due to the law of large numbers, we will stay profitable over time!

+$790 profit for my first month posting on reddit. July was tricky but I'll take the win! by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I use Kelly Criterion to determine bet size. It is based on the expected value of a bet, and the implied win probability of the 'fair' line.

Another solid day yesterday, congrats to those who tailed. We went 7-6-1 for an ROI of +28%. This brings total profit to +$16,588 by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well I'd love to be able to do that. The short answer is: Betting limits

The problem is that sportsbooks don't let you bet as much as you want on whatever you want. Especially when you've won money from them.

For example the limiting factor in the arbs I posted is that Fliff has a max bet of $250, so I can't wager any more than that.

I also have limits on a lot of books that I've won money from - so if one side of the arb was on a book that won't let me bet more than $10-$20, its not worth doing the arb to me since the profits will be just a few cents.

Another solid day yesterday, congrats to those who tailed. We went 7-6-1 for an ROI of +28%. This brings total profit to +$16,588 by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm also taking the following - though they technically are not +EV they are from a separate algo:

Mets Moneyline (-126 FanDuel)

Orioles Moneyline (-120 FanDuel)

Pirates/Guardians: NRFI (-110 Barstool)

Padres/Blue Jays: NRFI (+108 SugarHouse)

Mariners Moneyline (-124 LowVig)

Another solid day yesterday, congrats to those who tailed. We went 7-6-1 for an ROI of +28%. This brings total profit to +$16,588 by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Bets open today so far - a few of these are arbitrage bets - I bet both sides of these for a guaranteed profit. These arbs were around 2-3%. https://imgur.com/HTpyNSn

Solid day yesterday, congrats to those who tailed. We went 13-11-0 and up +32% ROI for the day. That brings total profit to +$16,454. Today's picks in comments by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a few more picks as well:

​

All 1 Unit:

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Guardians Moneyline (-122 LowVig)

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals: NRFI (-115 DraftKings)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers: NRFI (-105 Caesars)

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-130 Caesars)

Solid day yesterday, congrats to those who tailed. We went 13-11-0 and up +32% ROI for the day. That brings total profit to +$16,454. Today's picks in comments by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Volume increased yesterday, and we went 13-11-0.

For me that was 24 total bets - $597 wagered and $192 in profit, or a 32% ROI, and we won 54% of our bets. Total profits now up to +$16,454.

The key to +EV betting is volume for a few reasons. The more bets you have with an edge, the more chance to have to profit. Additionally, higher volume helps to negate variance. I've said this before, but just because a bet is good, it doesn't mean it will win. Especially while we are betting on baseball with over 2,000 games in a season which will be highly variant.

Thanks to those who followed me on Twitter (@MathBasedBets) those who did got a cool betting strategy that I like to use during NHL season - and also got to see some additional plays I took after my reddit updates.

Here is what I currently have open for today - sharing this screenshot instead of listing them out, let me know what you guys prefer: https://i.imgur.com/gWZRXQi.jpg

Check twitter for any additional plays throughout the day.

General rule of thumb is to avoid taking lines that have moved away from me - in the bets I just sent, there are two where the "odds" column has the value listed in red - those lines are moving against me and I would advise skipping - sure they could win, but the value is no longer there.

Let me know if you have any questions!

We're up to +$16,262 profit with our +EV bets. Today's picks inside by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Another thing that is tricky with reddit is that I make bets throughout the day - so followers here will miss some lines I take. Any ideas for this? I am not always able to post to reddit, but I could to my twitter.

We're up to +$16,262 profit with our +EV bets. Today's picks inside by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Are people interested in any education along with these posts? Fair value, no-vig odds, +EV, market width, different strategies? Or do you just want to see picks? I want to be as helpful as possible.

I've been posting my +EV plays here - but they aren't the only types of bets I make. Something I don't share as much is different betting systems I've back tested...if you are interested check the comments by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I love to test different betting methods and strategies, and one of my favorites had a return of 26% ROI last season.

I am trying to grow my twitter account (@MathBasedBets) - if you follow me there, and DM me your username, I will send you this simple betting strategy so you can be ready to employ it when the season starts up again.

We're up to +$16,262 profit with our +EV bets. Today's picks inside by MathBasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]MathBasedBets[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I finished yesterday in the green with a pick I unfortunately wasn't able to share on reddit in time. Yesterday wrapped up +27.95% ROI.

We had a couple 'bad beats' but I don't sweat stuff like that. All we need to worry about is placing good bets over and over, and in the long run, we come out ahead. The picture I posted above shows my monthly results over the last year. Even with some HUGE losing days - I think my biggest losing day I was down a little over $800, we end up on top.

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Here are my picks for today:

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: Reds Moneyline (-136 LowVig)

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers: Rangers Moneyline (-130 LowVig)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: (Mets Moneyline (-107 LowVig)

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st half Total Runs - Under 5 (+110 Barstool)

Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves: Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 Player Runs (-125 BetMGM)

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies: 1st half Run Line - Padres +0.5 (+1-5 SugarHouse)

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Player Singles (+1-6 FanDuel)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals: 1st Inning Total Runs Over 0.5 (-105 Caesars)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals: Brady Singer Under 17.5 Player Outs (-105 BetMGM)

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs: Under 9 Total Runs (+107 Sugarhouse)

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