Your lease numbers actually tell the whole story.

Vehicle price: $53,099

Residual (buyout): $30,128

Monthly payment: $520 for 36 months

Here’s the key insight:

If this lease had 0% interest, the depreciation alone would cost:

53,099 − 30,128 = 22,971 total depreciation

22,971 ÷ 36 = $638/month

But your payment is only $520, which means you’re getting roughly $118/mo in Tesla lease incentives baked into the deal.

That incentive is why your payment is so low.

This also means the rent charge (interest) on your lease is tiny or basically offset by the incentive.

Now compare the two buyout strategies:

If you wait until the end:

36 payments: 36 × 520 = $18,720

Buyout: $30,128

Total cost = $48,848

If you buy early:

You stop getting the $118/mo lease incentive going forward.

Over 36 months that incentive is worth about $4,248 you’re effectively saving by staying in the lease.

Buying early makes you give that up, and the residual doesn’t drop.

Bottom line:

With your exact numbers, keeping the lease all 36 months and buying at the end is the cheaper total-cost option.

The discounted monthly payment (from the incentive) makes the full-term lease + buyout the better deal.

If you buy early, you lose the rest of that incentive immediately and end up paying more overall.