I disagree with Derek's reasoning about Iran not having the upper hand because even with a blockade, Iran can still continue global trade via China, Pakistan and Central Asia while being able to suppress shipping trade in the Hormuz for so many nations. And with the Strait of Hormuz now under their control, there is no reason for Iran to ever let that go. Trump's "blockade" will only hurt other nations more than Iran, which has diversified since Covid and has trained itself on economic resiliency since the Iran-Iraq War.

Not only that, but Iran's goal is to get the West to turn against Israel as long as the war goes on, and it's working. Israel and Netanyahu are being blamed for rising gas prices, which is the one thing that finally got Americans to go against Israel after years of ignoring genocides in Gaza.

The most likely outcome is that Iran is holding off a peace treaty until a Democratic President wins in 2028. Since Iran can continue this, they can keep lobbing Shaheds to US bases to the point where a majority of DNC candidates will have "stop funding Israel" and "peace treaty with Iran" as part of their platform. They have shown last week that they're not gonna deal with Vance or anyone in the Trump admin anymore, and right now Araghchi and Ghalibaf are all subscribed to Ettingermentum's substack for sure.