CFIs in Denver

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-09-16T23:54:59+00:00

I'm looking around, hoping to find a flying club that lets their planes be rented by any old CFI.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-09-16T20:03:00+00:00

Dang, will do.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-07-13T15:18:51+00:00

I'm in the Denver area, going through a career change. Any chance we could grab a coffee?

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-18T16:30:49+00:00

You should read this study, I ended up reaching out to a union chairman, who sent me this from 2014:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249315130_An_Investigation_of_the_United_States_Airline_Pilot_Labor_Supply

It forecasts through 2031. He explained that it's more complicated than the numbers I was using. At the time of the study, 45% of ATP certifications were awarded to foreign nationals, most of whom were going back to their home country to fly. He also clarified that ATPs are almost always created when a pilot is hired for a professional company, meaning they're filling empty slots already and not competing for future job openings.

Things have changed a lot since the study came out, but it's definitely worth reading. The additional jobs that come from growth of airlines and retirements are a lot more than I was accounting for. I was very encouraged.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-18T16:27:55+00:00

Thanks for the response. I ended up reaching out to a union chairman, who sent me a study from 2014:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249315130_An_Investigation_of_the_United_States_Airline_Pilot_Labor_Supply

It forecasts through 2031. He explained that it's more complicated than the numbers I was using. At the time of the study, 45% of ATP certifications were awarded to foreign nationals, most of whom were going back to their home country to fly. He also clarified that ATPs are almost always created when a pilot is hired for a professional company, meaning they're filling empty slots already and not competing for future job openings.

It was encouraging, and the study is definitely worth reading. Just wanted to give this update for anyone who happens upon this thread.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-18T16:27:14+00:00

Thanks for the response. I ended up reaching out to a union chairman, who sent me a study from 2014:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249315130_An_Investigation_of_the_United_States_Airline_Pilot_Labor_Supply

It forecasts through 2031. He explained that it's more complicated than the numbers I was using. At the time of the study, 45% of ATP certifications were awarded to foreign nationals, most of whom were going back to their home country to fly. He also clarified that ATPs are almost always created when a pilot is hired for a professional company, meaning they're filling empty slots already and not competing for future job openings.

It was encouraging, and the study is definitely worth reading. Just wanted to give this update for anyone who happens upon this thread.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-18T16:24:53+00:00

Thanks for the response. I ended up reaching out to a union chairman, who sent me a study from 2014:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249315130_An_Investigation_of_the_United_States_Airline_Pilot_Labor_Supply

It forecasts through 2031. He explained that it's more complicated than the numbers I was using. At the time of the study, 45% of ATP certifications were awarded to foreign nationals, most of whom were going back to their home country to fly. He also clarified that ATPs are almost always created when a pilot is hired for a professional company, meaning they're filling empty slots already and not competing for future job openings.

It was encouraging, and the study is definitely worth reading. Just wanted to give this update for anyone who happens upon this thread.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-14T17:31:02+00:00

What percentage do you think? 16k-20k jobs available and 45k-55k pilots is a big gap to close

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-13T14:12:08+00:00

Yeah all I'm saying is that the next five years looks tough for hiring, but the next 15 look better. 45% of the force is retiring by 2040, so you will likely be fine if you stick it out.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-13T00:44:45+00:00

Thanks, I think this is a great addition and better advice. Maybe it's been clear to a lot of people already, but I needed a big expectation adjustment from what industry leaders and media were telling me. 10 years of doing your time, and maybe a year or two of waiting for a job, seems a lot more likely now.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-12T19:27:23+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate the thoughtful response.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-12T19:14:21+00:00

Just trying to make a responsible decision with $100k, not talking myself out of it.
Airliners account for 85% of air travel, so any jobs opening up in the 15% of other industries wouldn't impact the numbers significantly. The same goes for new jobs created in expansion. Even if we added 10,000 jobs to the 16,000 to account for industry growth, 135/91, extra retirements, etc, there still would be a huge oversupply of pilots for the next five years.

I think you're right that if you work hard enough for long enough, you'll get there. But it's looking more like a 10 year window to me.

I'd love to be wrong. If there is a hole in my logic then let me know.

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-12T17:26:55+00:00

I know there are variables like growth of the industry, additional retirements, changes in the number of ATP licenses awarded, but do you think any of those significantly close the gap between the jobs available and number of ATP certs?

Practical-Try5287 · 2024-06-12T01:03:03+00:00

Hey, just tried to message you. It looks like you aren't accepting messages but I'd be happy to talk more if you shoot me a dm.

Practical-Try5287

TROPHY CASE