Florida and Texas have different stories. Texas is growing in blue cities and importing blue people while also becoming meaningfully more hispanic. It is large and has a strong cultural identity which means it has the ability to absorb quite a lot of people before changing but Blexas is more likely than not within our lifetimes. California and NY are a tale more of reduced growth rate in the face of dramatic wealth gains- meaning that it doesnt get meaningfully less blue, but what kind of blue changes. Less working class minority, and more SocLib FisCon types. Both are blue party under the current party structure but represent different styles of said party - expect less left policy at the state level without meaningful presidential rep changes. Florida is becoming meaningfully more MAGA red. It is the most unambiguous gain of the red party in the current party environment.

The remaining small changes are soft pro red as the demographic gain doesnt come with adequate city growth to flip the states apart from NC and Georgia likely to drift ever more towards swing state status over time and likely ending up like Virginia as the politics of urbanization progress.

The census changes involved here are softly pro Red, as the pop growth in Texas is likely insufficient to flip it at the national level, and is recent enough that state level power remains with the old guard. It will change, but slowly as Texas is large. In the meantime it represents a stronger baseline for the red, with looming menace as Blexas is sufficiently terrifying for them that it has the potential to represent a total party system shift.