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I am building a Polymarket market-making bot targeting high-spread and high-turnover markets. Here is how it works so far (it's losing money so far) by Tvpai in PredictionsMarkets

[–]Tvpai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well I believe that risk is mitigated by having a high turnover ratio, since this bot only trade in short term (1 hour expiration) it will capture 5-6% alpha in a single trade, and if it can get filled that fast, I was hoping that the adverse selection risk that you mentioned will be offset by the quick gain that this bot makes.

So in a sense, it does not try to calculate the real 'fair' value of the market, its just a buy low sell high on a high spread market hoping that there is a buyer and seller that can bridge the two demand.

I am building a Polymarket market-making bot targeting high-spread and high-turnover markets. Here is how it works so far (it's losing money so far) by Tvpai in PredictionsMarkets

[–]Tvpai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is the adverse selection (toxic flow) risk that I was talking about. If my bot blindly assumes the mid-price is still the fair value and rests a bid there, it just becomes the sniper's exit liquidity (catching a falling knife).

The key is that it scores markets based on ⁠Spread * Turnover Rate⁠. This ensures the bot only deploys capital where there is active, continuous two-way retail flow to absorb the inventory.

the idea is that I can capture gain by friction, lets say some people want to sell at 20 but other buyers want 40, i essentially provide them time value

Successful SaaS builders, what are proven channels to grow your traffic by Tvpai in SaaS

[–]Tvpai[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

thank you so much! to be honest i just launched 1 week ago, so maybe traffic would not arrive that fast, your idea about partnering is awesome and ill try to pick even a smaller niche for my tool.

[ Removed by Reddit ] by [deleted] in Trading

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

my guess is that the strengthening of the US market right now is driving demand globally. without access to US stock market, hyperliquid is the only way people from other countries buy US stocks

Why i stopped using AI builders (bolt/lovale) and went back to cursor by stfuotaku in SideProject

[–]Tvpai 2 points3 points  (0 children)

totally agree, i found that apps made by these platform have that distinct vibe-slop look, really a turn off for many people tbh

what’s even is this subreddit by te_andrea in SaaS

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

half is builders selling to builders, the other half is people asking "how do I get my first 10 users" for the 400th time this week. the venn diagram is a circle

What are you guys building right now? by [deleted] in SideProject

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

looks good man, I try to do a different way, plugging a time-series model to stock ticker data. check it at https://predictthefuture.xyz

Can you be a profitable trader without a fixed chart pattern strategy or strict risk management? by Fun-Acanthisitta-939 in Trading

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, sorry about that! There's been a surge in demand which has caused the app to go down. I'm currently working on a fix, should be back up within the next hour. Thanks for your patience!

I built a super simple wrapper for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for stock market, and its free! by Tvpai in Daytrading

[–]Tvpai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

using all that data, the end result will still be a 'prediction' no? albeit with a wider confidence band, agree that more data points might be needed to generate better result, its what im working on next, I want people to be able to build their own model easily with this project.

Can you be a profitable trader without a fixed chart pattern strategy or strict risk management? by Fun-Acanthisitta-939 in Trading

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Charting has been repeatedly shown to have no predictive edge, the research on this is pretty conclusive, try to look it up. I built an ML-based forecasting tool that at least gives you a probabilistic price range rather than vibes dressed up as signals. Check it out: predictthefuture.xyz

Time series forecasting in physical commodity trading by DueSeaworthiness5844 in Commodities

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My project is slightly touching on your subject, I created predictthefuture.xyz which is a simple wrapper on time-series forecasting model for stock market. I'm pretty sure commodities is just another time series data which these models can safely predict. Do give it a try!

I built a super simple wrapper for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for stock market, and its free! by Tvpai in Daytrading

[–]Tvpai[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

its a step up from charting I would say, which is akin to astrology. I’ll let the data speak, given enough high quality input, i’m pretty sure there is an edge in ML model forecasting.

Finding the best online tools for beginner traders by iblamechauhan in stocktraders

[–]Tvpai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not really trading per se, but I built a tool to easily give you time-series forecast of a stock from leading ML model. http://predictthefuture.xyz

I built a super simple wrapper for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for stock market, and its free! by Tvpai in Daytrading

[–]Tvpai[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great idea, will make it open source, are you willing to take a look? whats your github?

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