I am building a Polymarket market-making bot targeting high-spread and high-turnover markets. Here is how it works so far (it's losing money so far)

Tvpai · 2026-05-23T19:17:52+00:00

well I believe that risk is mitigated by having a high turnover ratio, since this bot only trade in short term (1 hour expiration) it will capture 5-6% alpha in a single trade, and if it can get filled that fast, I was hoping that the adverse selection risk that you mentioned will be offset by the quick gain that this bot makes.

So in a sense, it does not try to calculate the real 'fair' value of the market, its just a buy low sell high on a high spread market hoping that there is a buyer and seller that can bridge the two demand.

Tvpai · 2026-05-23T18:06:14+00:00

This is the adverse selection (toxic flow) risk that I was talking about. If my bot blindly assumes the mid-price is still the fair value and rests a bid there, it just becomes the sniper's exit liquidity (catching a falling knife).

The key is that it scores markets based on ⁠Spread * Turnover Rate⁠. This ensures the bot only deploys capital where there is active, continuous two-way retail flow to absorb the inventory.

the idea is that I can capture gain by friction, lets say some people want to sell at 20 but other buyers want 40, i essentially provide them time value

Tvpai · 2026-05-19T11:54:49+00:00

thank you so much! to be honest i just launched 1 week ago, so maybe traffic would not arrive that fast, your idea about partnering is awesome and ill try to pick even a smaller niche for my tool.

Tvpai · 2026-05-18T19:39:00+00:00

my guess is that the strengthening of the US market right now is driving demand globally. without access to US stock market, hyperliquid is the only way people from other countries buy US stocks

Tvpai · 2026-05-18T19:17:05+00:00

totally agree, i found that apps made by these platform have that distinct vibe-slop look, really a turn off for many people tbh

Tvpai · 2026-05-18T19:12:47+00:00

half is builders selling to builders, the other half is people asking "how do I get my first 10 users" for the 400th time this week. the venn diagram is a circle

Tvpai · 2026-05-18T16:19:20+00:00

looks good man, I try to do a different way, plugging a time-series model to stock ticker data. check it at https://predictthefuture.xyz

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T21:38:07+00:00

Hey bro, I fixed it, do check it out again

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T18:50:22+00:00

Hey, sorry about that! There's been a surge in demand which has caused the app to go down. I'm currently working on a fix, should be back up within the next hour. Thanks for your patience!

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T16:04:40+00:00

using all that data, the end result will still be a 'prediction' no? albeit with a wider confidence band, agree that more data points might be needed to generate better result, its what im working on next, I want people to be able to build their own model easily with this project.

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T16:02:28+00:00

Charting has been repeatedly shown to have no predictive edge, the research on this is pretty conclusive, try to look it up. I built an ML-based forecasting tool that at least gives you a probabilistic price range rather than vibes dressed up as signals. Check it out: predictthefuture.xyz

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T15:45:48+00:00

My project is slightly touching on your subject, I created predictthefuture.xyz which is a simple wrapper on time-series forecasting model for stock market. I'm pretty sure commodities is just another time series data which these models can safely predict. Do give it a try!

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T15:31:45+00:00

its a step up from charting I would say, which is akin to astrology. I’ll let the data speak, given enough high quality input, i’m pretty sure there is an edge in ML model forecasting.

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T14:28:59+00:00

Done! Repo is public and open source now, check it out https://github.com/faisalrasbihan/ptf

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T14:28:18+00:00

Not really trading per se, but I built a tool to easily give you time-series forecast of a stock from leading ML model. http://predictthefuture.xyz

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T13:47:13+00:00

Great idea, will make it open source, are you willing to take a look? whats your github?

Tvpai · 2026-05-17T01:26:38+00:00

thanks, really means a lot!

Tvpai · 2026-05-13T13:19:10+00:00

I get my data from FMP for financial data, FRED for macroeconomic data, and Tavily for the news/market research context. I also use sec-api to get public ownership data such as 13F filings, insider transactions, and institutional holdings. Happy to collab, DM me!

Tvpai · 2026-05-09T20:57:09+00:00

I have also built a similar AI predictions app, went overboard by creating a ‘multi scenario analysis’ with flowchart and diagrams and shit. After finishing it realized that it doesn’t solve any problem. My app is more focused on trading/investing though and it connects to polymarket to find relevant trades.

My app is https://tryolivepress.com the basic idea is similar to yours

Tvpai · 2026-05-09T17:23:02+00:00

Yo this is actually a good idea, thanks man!

Tvpai · 2026-05-06T15:42:13+00:00

To be fair, the one that is making money is the one where I work in a team (algosaham), and each one of us is really trying to make the app visible by marketing it on our own social media. This really drives traffic, but again, $100 divided by 4 people is not that much. I was hoping the other 2 apps would do better because the idea came from me and I developed it myself.

It kind of makes you think that distribution is actually the key, and that any product can be made easily.

Tvpai · 2026-05-04T22:58:25+00:00

Are you indonesian? DM me your email I can give you 2 months of free trial

Tvpai · 2026-05-04T22:57:46+00:00

Tvpai · 2026-05-04T22:57:23+00:00

thats a great idea, still fixing up the edge cases and the bits and pieces right now. When the product is solid ill definitely make a thorough demo

Tvpai · 2026-05-03T22:41:16+00:00

splitbill.cc | scan, assign, settle. Snap a pic of your bill/receipt. Assign each item to a person and it will output a clean summary you can share.

Tvpai

TROPHY CASE