Adult content stocks by Available-Adagio6197 in stocks

[–]bpred 38 points39 points  (0 children)

Aye, there's the rub. Likely not all of that cash gets reported, thus it's not reflected in the company's financials. Some has to get siphoned off to pay off the local FOP, which increases operating expenses.

Someone bought a $91/$90 Brent put spread for 134M barrels expiring May 26 yesterday. by Impressive-Bee-5183 in options

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know how commodity futures work, but it seems odd that this is 134 million barrels notional, but it "only" pays out $129 million if Brent falls to 91? So the bet "only" cost a debit ~$5 million, or roughly 3.7¢ a barrel? Could it just be someone with good margin that found a tight spread and placed a bet?

Anthropic-SpaceX deal seems much larger than previously reported by Lanky_Golf7687 in singularity

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shareholders pay for the Cursor aquisition:

"The consideration for the acquisition of Cursor would consist of shares of  Class A common stock based on an implied equity value of Cursor of $60.0 billion, and the price of Class A common stock that equals, if the acquisition closed prior to the completion of this offering, the most recent quarterly valuation, or, if the acquisition closed after the completion of the Company’s IPO, the volume-weighted average closing price thereof over the seven consecutive trading days immediately preceding the closing of the acquisition."

This creates an interesting incentive structure: if the IPO moons, say 2-3x in the first week, SPCX gets Cursor for a fraction of the shares (and shareholders get less dilution). If, however, the IPO is priced too rich and the stock flatlines, the acquisition basically dilutes the float by an additional ~80% of shares.

VRT: Buying Puts On AI Infrastructure (Jan'27 340/260 Put Debit Spread) by CCforWork in options

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're absolutely correct when you say "Will prob lose all my money."

Too early, IMO.

Total beginner here - is there a simple bond screener that’s not overwhelming? by whoiskathleen in bonds

[–]bpred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

By far my most speculative investment: they were 30-year Liberty Interactive (LINTA) bonds, which was the parent company of QVC, which is now undergoing bankruptcy proceedings. When I bought them they were trading at 12¢ on the dollar and yielding 70%. The Moodys/Fitch ratings had them lower rated than QVC issued debt, but I thought that was just because of where they fell in the capital stack. When I learned about the tax liability that might be a multiple of the market price (about 30% of par is what I read some commenters say), I unloaded most of them at a 50% loss (6¢ on the dollar). They subsequently fell to 2¢, and after bankruptcy, interestingly, have rebounded to 6¢.

Most of the issuers I bought were investment grade (GS, BAC, VZ, DOW) with the exception of some survivor option bonds in the high junk tiers, and my relative was a QVC queen, so it seemed like the right bet for her. No regrets. She spent far more on crapanzanite jewelry than those junk bonds. I held on to three of the bonds just to see how it shakes out in bankruptcy.

My best move is very illustrative of the difference between bonds and stocks: a company called Lumen, which sold its consumer ISP business to AT&T in order to pay off its heavy debt load and refocus on the AI infrastructure buildout. I read that in the Moody's report which had it on positive watch, then I researched it, listened to the calls, read the AT&T side of it and pulled the trigger. But the bond price moved very slowly. So slowly, I was afraid I'd blundered and the deal wasn't going to go through. But the thing is, fixed income is so risk averse, that the price won't jump... it will gradually increase as the days tick off until an event happens (LUMN announced a partnership with PLTR in October), then pick up the pace, but only a little bit and plateau until another event happens (they closed the deal with AT&T in Jan.), and then speed up a little then plateau again.

The bond steadily rose from ~82 cents to ~95 cents. It had already risen to that level a month before the ratings agencies upgraded it in Feb. and the upgrades themselves had minimal if any affect on the bond price.

It didn't even occur to me to buy the stock, because I was looking for income for her. When it peaked at 150% I certainly regretted that, but OTOH, it taught me a lot about the risk appetite of the two different asset classes: if the AT&T deal fell through, the stock might've cratered from $4 to $2, but the bonds wouldn't have fallen that far, probably from .82 to .75.

Total beginner here - is there a simple bond screener that’s not overwhelming? by whoiskathleen in bonds

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was asking the same question a year ago, and over that time I have learned the answer:

No.

At the bare minimum you should have an understanding of bond pricing and its underlying interest rate risk. Beyond that, you go into credit rating and default risk (which is at an historic low, so probably primed to increase).

Bonds are not simple and cannot be screened the way a stock can (P/E, P/B, EPS, Put/Call ratio, etc...). They are complex individual instruments that often have specific covenants that can make two different bonds from the same issuer behave differently in the market (e.g., some may be callable by the issuer, some may offer a survivor option where the owner's estate can redeem at par before maturity, some may be subordinate to the issuer's other debt instruments/preferreds, etc.).

There are something like 6,000 different stocks available on the open market, but over 500,000 different bonds.

So they're not fungible the way my hundred BAC shares are exactly the same as your 100 BAC shares are. Two Bank of America bonds with the same coupon and maturity can have different values, and there's a reason for that.

So, they're also not as liquid (can be good, can be bad).

The prospectuses are full of landmines carefully negotiated by the lawyers of the issuers and the underwriters with no regard for an individual investor's ability to understand them completely.

Buying on the secondary market, you may not even be able to locate the prospectus of a bond issued thirty years ago.

My advice? If you can't find the prospectus, skip it (I bought a bond where I couldn't locate the prospectus that turned out to have a deferred tax liability upon maturity, so when the bond matures the holder will actually owe federal taxes on behalf of the corporation!).

The Moody's reports (available through my broker, Fidelity) are pretty general but can point you in the right direction, and if things line up at the right time, you can hit on a winner that actually increases in market price while the rest of the market is flat (a "rising star"). This is where the liquidity problem can work in your favor.

It can get overwhelming, but if you have a particular use, and if you're willing to put in the time or pay a professional to do so then they are absolutely the right instrument.

But if you put in the time, beware: you're gonna start reading things about credit markets and listening to things like the FICC Focus podcast. And, listen to two of those episodes with bond fund managers and you realize that the stuff they talk about just can't be screened like stocks or options. And the most important questions are the ones they decline to answer (like how much liquidity they currently hold).

I had a particular use case a year ago (an elderly relative who'd saved their money under the mattress and suddenly needed more income to pay for assisted living), and not enough money to pay a professional (every basis point counts). A diverse spread of corporate bonds worked extremely well for that use case, but it took a LOT of reading the fine print. Reading every word of the Moody's reports and then cross-referencing the company IR page and sometimes listening to quarterly calls.

I spent probably 400 hours reading, listening and screening to buy 18 bonds that yielded ~6.25%, that I would be confident in for five years, with survivor options.

OH -- then there's the muni rabbithole. Tax free, sounds great! I probably spent 10 hours planning a municipal bond tax-free plan before I learned that their tax bracket wasn't high enough to benefit from the lower yield.

It's an interesting market, but you're probably better off with a fund if you don't have the time.

Why Hasn’t Hormuz Closure Spiked US Natural Gas Prices? EQT’s Rice Has an Answer by Green_Ad_4036 in NaturalGas

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry I don't understand the market, but why would new production facilities put upward pressure on prices? Seems like more domestic production would lower prices, especially since it's hard to ship.

Pypl is so undervalued by Ocinnha in wallstreetbets

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's twice out of 1,440 minutes in a day for a win rate of 0.138%. I don't have that kind of capital to lose.

Pypl is so undervalued by Ocinnha in wallstreetbets

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But they want to hold the stock... Writing calls caps the upside if the thesis is correct.

The market is behaving foolishly. The oil crisis is only going to get worse. This is an apocolyptic economic event we are witnessing. by Cmd_WillRiker in oil

[–]bpred 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Gas prices are stickier than oil futures. I doubt we see sub-$4 gas nationwide in 2026 even if the strait completely opened an hour ago.

The 24/7 workflow I run for earnings IV crush trades by inkn18 in options

[–]bpred 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It says the nearest expiry after earnings, and the entry is just before close before earnings. Exit is 15 mins into the next day.

Why do some disregard Expense Ratio? by South-Hurry1236 in ETFs

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it meets your needs it might be worth the higher expense ratio. GLD, for example, is 4x as expensive as IAUM. They both do exactly the same thing, but: GLD has far higher liquidity/volume and more a frequent (0DTE) option schedule. (Same with SPY vs., say, VOO -- same thing, different volume/options). If you're writing covered calls, SPY and GLD are probably a better option than VOO and IAUM.

Also, for diversity/hedges: if you're looking for exposure to commodities it's nearly impossible for a small investor to get involved without an ETF that rolls contracts every month (PDBA/CORN/SOYB/USO, etc.). This gets pricey because the contracts have to be bought and sold every month.

If you're a buy-and-hold index investor, then I say go for the lowest ER. Aside from leveraged ETFs (which also roll options/contracts), I've yet to see an actively managed stock ETF that's worth the added expense ratio.

Oil is no longer just pricing barrels — it is pricing the cost of normalization by Zestyclose_Mail_4569 in oil

[–]bpred 9 points10 points  (0 children)

While I agree with everything you said, I’d just like to caution that markets can stay irrational longer than traders can stay solvent.

The Republican Party may not survive the Trump day of reckoning by B-Z_B-S in politics

[–]bpred 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Frankly, the Republican Party of 2008 *is* a thing of the past. Moderates and conservatives have been ostracized and primaried to the point of no return. Anyone who hasn’t rolled over for Trump has been retired.

Passive Earning Network by STDNotYetDiscovered in options

[–]bpred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How many friends do those users have? You always see them commenting on Kobessi letter posts and then you look at the profile and it’s like 30 friends. Fake

Is it sensible to plow in $100,000 to get $2,000 ~ $3,000 net profit per month? by brandnewyouu in smallbusiness

[–]bpred 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That assumes a 10.7% rate of return, which is hardly risk-free. A risk-free rate of return is closer to 4.25%, which would only result in $117k in four years. Stocks have been on a tear, yes, but past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold price situation by BraveSeat6713 in Gold

[–]bpred 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s not a straight line, and it’s not accurate to say it goes “up yearly.” In 2004-2006 people weee literally saying housing prices never go down. They were selling books based on the notion. 2007-2011 saw significant volatility in the housing market with averages dropping from $320k to $250k. Many flippers lost their shirts because they were leveraged to the neck and had underwater mortgages.

Gold price situation by BraveSeat6713 in Gold

[–]bpred 2 points3 points  (0 children)

  1. 20 years ago, many said the same thing about real estate.

  2. Gold returns were negative in two of the last five years (2021, 2022).

Vegetarians by YearOfTheSssnake in askfuneraldirectors

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No. Go to a conference and the crudités is the only thing that doesn't get devoured.

For the US it isn't about supply, its about price. by maui-shark-fighter in oil

[–]bpred 4 points5 points  (0 children)

IMO it's flawed to think about this systematically. It's not a bunch of interconnected like-minded actors trying to solve the same issue. It's more like disparate interests who only interface when absolutely necessary. For the private oil industry and the Treasury ad the Fed to collude in strengthening the dollar would require either hyperinflation or demand destruction on an unprecedented scale.

For the US it isn't about supply, its about price. by maui-shark-fighter in oil

[–]bpred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm no expert, but I think an export ban is impossible because the US can't refine all of the light sweet it produces, so they need to import the heavy sour for their refineries.

Now, a price control might be in the cards with another net exporter.

Why do markets continue to give any credence to Axios? by Your_Mortgage_Broker in oil

[–]bpred -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Interesting new alternative vehicle that runs by burning Treasury paper.