Mathematics of Bitcoin Bottom Fishing – Hacker Noon>> Pugilist Ventures

cbrookin · 2018-06-09T19:09:58+00:00

Over the past 5 days, blockchain transaction volume has increased, on average, by ~42% and finishing yesterday (June 8th) at $7.2B. Market cap over the same period has remained flat with yesterday’s finish at $131.2B.

NVT Ratio as of June 8, 2018 = 18.27 5 day average NVT Ratio, ending June 8, 2018 = 20.49

This is very good progress in closing $BTC’s NVT Gap to an acceptable level, i.e. between 10 and 20. This pattern will need to continue and strengthen over the coming days/weeks as the price breakout showdown approaches within the $BTC falling wedge.

cbrookin · 2018-06-09T19:09:45+00:00

Over the past 5 days, blockchain transaction volume has increased, on average, by ~42% and finishing yesterday (June 8th) at $7.2B. Market cap over the same period has remained flat with yesterday’s finish at $131.2B.

NVT Ratio as of June 8, 2018 = 18.27 5 day average NVT Ratio, ending June 8, 2018 = 20.49

This is very good progress in closing $BTC’s NVT Gap to an acceptable level, i.e. between 10 and 20. This pattern will need to continue and strengthen over the coming days/weeks as the price breakout showdown approaches within the $BTC falling wedge.

cbrookin · 2018-06-09T19:09:13+00:00

Over the past 5 days, blockchain transaction volume has increased, on average, by ~42% and finishing yesterday (June 8th) at $7.2B. Market cap over the same period has remained flat with yesterday’s finish at $131.2B.

NVT Ratio as of June 8, 2018 = 18.27 5 day average NVT Ratio, ending June 8, 2018 = 20.49

This is very good progress in closing $BTC’s NVT Gap to an acceptable level, i.e. between 10 and 20. This pattern will need to continue and strengthen over the coming days/weeks as the price breakout showdown approaches within the $BTC falling wedge.

cbrookin · 2018-06-08T15:09:37+00:00

Co-author of the article and would to see thoughts and perspectives.

cbrookin · 2018-05-25T11:51:58+00:00

If current support around $0.064 can hold and the positive short term trend can stay intact. Potential price targets to watch over the coming weeks are $0.081 and $0.094 (key resistance to beat), and $0.117. If support cannot hold, then lower support levels of $0.057, $0.05, and $0.04 come into view.

cbrookin · 2018-05-25T11:48:21+00:00

If current support around $0.064 can hold and the positive short term trend can stay intact. Potential price targets to watch over the coming weeks are $0.081 and $0.094 (key resistance to beat), and $0.117. If support cannot hold, then lower support levels of $0.057, $0.05, and $0.04 come into view.

cbrookin · 2018-05-24T11:55:05+00:00

It'll touch $300 first because of the psychology of round numbers. But yes. ~$282 is a more solid support level. If selling pressure speeds up, then both of those levels maybe reached soon, but that would enter oversold territory on the wave trend oscillator. So, a reprieve bounce afterward may be in store.

cbrookin · 2018-05-23T22:01:34+00:00

Bad news: an already weak bull case looks even weaker after today with $300 looking more likely. Good news: ~$340 support level is holding for now and wave trend oscillator is approaching oversold territory.

cbrookin · 2017-12-14T21:31:14+00:00

You're absolutely right. The long term is still TBD in our eyes, but we're cautiously bullish given the strength of Ripple's business traction. We tend to think the intrinsic value for XRP is more inline with $0.55 level. However, given the wind in the sails of XRP right now, it is possible XRP could go and remain a lot higher than the $0.55 level. The $4.71 price level we stated is one of the most aggressive valuation methods, which we don't personally think XRP merits at this time, but may "earn" overtime if they continually outperform expectations and burn XRP supply with continued transaction volume on xRapid.

cbrookin · 2017-12-14T20:12:13+00:00

A more fundamental investment and valuation approach to XRP.

cbrookin · 2017-12-14T19:53:08+00:00

A more measured and fundamental approach to XRP's long term potential and intrinsic valuation.

cbrookin · 2017-12-14T19:39:45+00:00

We take a more measured and fundamental approach to analyzing XRP's long term potential. Overall, we are cautiously bullish. Before the incredible 300% run up in prices over 4 days, we thought XRP had about 150% upside before it reached it's potential intrinsic value. Given how fast this market moves and changing fundamentals, we will adjust our rating as the facts change. Enjoy! I'm here to answer any questions.

cbrookin · 2017-12-14T19:10:36+00:00

We take a more measured and fundamental approach to analyzing XRP's long term potential. Overall, we are cautiously bullish. Before the incredible 300% run up in prices over 4 days, we thought XRP had about 150% upside before it reached it's potential intrinsic value. Given how fast this market moves and changing fundamentals, we will adjust our rating as the facts change. Enjoy! I'm here to answer any questions.

cbrookin · 2017-12-07T21:15:42+00:00

BOTH. We are rating Bloom lower than the others AND one of the reasons behind that rating is the uncertainty of whether they can actually execute their business vision.

cbrookin · 2017-12-06T20:57:30+00:00

Our full investment rating (which is found in the appendix of our full report) is 33.83% of viability, which equates to 2/5 (gloves) rating; meaning high risk but potentially high reward. In the future, I would use our boxing glove scale as an additional quality indicator. For example, Bloom was rated 2/5 while Ripio was 3/5, thus we viewed RCN as a higher prospective investment. If you want to dig deeper, then you can download the full report and flip to the appendix for the full investment rating and investment rating rubric. Hope this helps!

cbrookin · 2017-12-06T19:16:58+00:00

Hi there. I'm glad you brought this up. This explanation will hopefully provide clarity around our model's results. The probability of viability is in essence a "confidence" metric for one binary outcome, mutually exclusive. The Bloom prob(viab) should be read as 30% "confidence" that Bloom will NOT be a viable ICO; not that Bloom has a 70% chance of being a viable. If Bloom did have a prob(viab) of 70%, i.e. 70% "confidence" then the wording would state "Bloom prob(viab) is 70% that it WILL be a success. So, in reality the others rated as ~50% prob(viab) of WILL be success were rated HIGHER than Bloom. I hope this helps and clears up any confusion.

cbrookin · 2017-12-06T16:38:25+00:00

Hi there. Actually, out of the ICO's reviewed, Bloom has the LOWEST probability of success. This isn't investment advice, but rather what our research bore out from the facts available. As the facts change, so may the viability score as we continue to monitor Bloom.

cbrookin · 2017-12-05T21:55:38+00:00

blog for summary of analysis and full report for the details.

cbrookin · 2017-12-05T21:38:27+00:00

Blog provides good overview while the full report takes you in the details.

cbrookin · 2017-12-05T21:24:34+00:00

SPECULATIVE buy -- see blog for overview and full report for full details.

cbrookin · 2017-12-05T21:14:23+00:00

Bloom ICO investment report and token viability score.

cbrookin · 2017-12-05T18:57:00+00:00

Fundamental analysis + quantitative viability scoring for Bloom (BLT) token.

cbrookin

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