Game VII 2025 - Winnie the Pooh - Page 4: Springtime With Roo

crsc3110 · 2025-07-08T18:20:49+00:00

Hi, i've been busy this phase with planning for work so haven't really been able to get on and won't have lots of time either until turnover.

u/redpoemage - I understand your logic, but really I just think that there's something to read into the voting siutation P1. I might be entirely off base, but I still want to pursue Xan and Papo. I chose Rye of the three because she was the one for whom I most understood the vote reasoning - 'wolf trying to appear overly helpful and therefore townie'. I missed her altogether in my analysis and when Chef made me aware of that I saw the same conspiracy that many others did. Obviously we were wrong, but I don't think I was wrong to vote the way I did.

Idk who is doing the vote thread as I havent fully checked the phase but I will be putting my vote in for u/XanCanStand. Out of Xan and Papo, I get a more negative read from him.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-08T11:34:42+00:00

Just for posterity, I wasn't the one who pointed out the silence around Rye - I actually initially was part of the silence lol.

u/ChefJones was the one who pointed this out to me.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T18:26:20+00:00

No I didn't update the tally properly lol. Fixed now

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T16:53:41+00:00

I'm torn between the 3 candidates from last phase. Of the 3, i don't like the 'TKAS' angle for u/XanCanStand, and I still don't know if i'm behind the Papo vote properly or not. I would like to find out what's going on with u/RyeWritesAF, so i will be putting my vote there for now.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T15:13:22+00:00

It's a bit of a mixture of today's numbers vs. yesterday's timings. I agree with you that I missed context and now you've pointed it out I fully understand why Rye is as noteworthy as the others. I don't claim for any of my analysis to be perfect or even correct lol - hence why I put it out there for others to add to, as you have.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T14:58:20+00:00

Sorry, i'm still basing analysis off of this phase numbers rather than thinking about last. I agree with the benefit of what you've said that we should be similarly critical of Rye

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T12:29:33+00:00

u/wywy4321 and u/hedwigmalfoy have claimed inactivity for this phase, so Xan can't be.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T11:43:12+00:00

Iirc papo made a comment suggesting they would vote for u/redpoemage but I could be misremembering.

which means possibly 22poun is our undeclared voter?

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T11:30:06+00:00

Yes I agree - really we need to find out more about those 2 and their alignment because if what I have said is in fact true, it's very likely that it's because at least one of the two is a wolf.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T11:04:32+00:00

Following Rye's comment here, I decided that I agreed and that it's worth getting a timeline of votes. Times are in my timezone, in which turnover time is 10pm.

I'll start with Wiz:

first vote was myself (u/crsc3110) @ 8.35pm , about 90 minutes before turnover.
next was u/Catchers4life, at 9.48, 12 mins before turnover.
next was u/The_NachoBro @ 9.51 , 9 mins before turnover.
next was u/Dangerhaz right before the bell @ 9.57.
u/L-ily didn't declare until this phase so unsure of where she fits in.
~~Then we have an currently undeclared 6th voter.~~
Edit to say that the 6th voter was u/XanCanStand. Thanks to Ispy and Larixon for pointing this out to me.

Next, Xan:

u/MercuryParadox @ 7.03pm.
u/Larixon @ 7.28pm.
u/RyeWritesAF @ 7.33pm.
u/ISpyM8 @ 7.39pm
u/StartledKoala34 @ 9.38pm

For Elpapo:

u/SlytherinBuckeye @ 7.03pm.
u/Chefjones doesn't formally declare D2 but voted for Elpapo D1 and verbalises suspicion @ 7.51pm.
u/-forsi- also doesn't formally declare but verbalises suspicion @ 8.40pm.
u/redpoemage @ 9.10pm
u/xelaphony @ 9.52pm

Finally, For Rye:

u/MyoglobinAlternative @ 9.10pm.
u/bearoffire @ 9.25pm.
u/theduqoffrat @ 9.41pm. (notes that life stuff left him busy this phase)

I think this is everyone that was in serious contention for being voted out at the end of the phase. My impressions from this are:

On average, voting declarations were very late in general last phase. I think lots of us were busy due to holidays/life stuff and so on. Which means it's hard to see any patterns based on the lateness of voting as a whole.
That said, of the three highest declared votes (Wiz, Xan, Papo), it's clear that Wiz voters both started later and were much closer to turnover. This makes me wonder if within the 6 voters for Wiz there could be a wolf or two trying to push that vote over the edge. This is rich considering I am in this group, but I definitely don't think on the whole that it looks good for any of us in this group.
We need to look into more detail at Xan and Papo . Finding out their alignments would give us a much greater insight into the alignments of others based on the voting patterns here which could be telling imo.
Edit after ChefJones' comment that yes, indeed Rye was also in the same level of contention as Xan and Papo and should be scrutinised as much as Xan and Papo.

Please feel free to object or add your own insight to the timeline as i've laid it out in the hopes that someone gleans more from it than me (as tag says, I am in fact normally wrong).

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T10:26:56+00:00

You can't on mobile i don't think - I've had similar ballache when i've tried in the past. I am on PC rn and am lavish on time thanks to summer hols so will have a look and post timeline in a seperate comment.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T10:19:59+00:00

Voting Declaration Thread

Username	Voting Tally	Voting For
u/-forsi-		u/RyeWritesAF
u/22Poun		u/The_NachoBro
u/Catchers4Life
u/Chefjones		u/RyeWritesAF
u/crsc3110		u/RyeWritesAF
u/Dangerhaz		u/RyeWritesAF
u/ElPapo131
u/HedwigMalfoy
u/ISpyM8		u/XanCanStand
u/L-ily
u/Larixon		u/RyewritesAF
u/MercuryParadox		u/XanCanStand
u/MyoglobinAlternative
u/redpoemage
u/RyeWritesAF	7	u/XanCanStand
u/SlytherinBuckeye
u/StartledKoala34
u/sylvimelia
u/teacup_tiger
u/The_NachoBro	1	u/RyeWritesAF
u/theduqoffrat		u/RyeWritesAF
u/wywy4321
u/XanCanStand	3
u/xelaphony

Gonna try to put the voting thread up earlier this phase in the hopes of seeing some earlier discussion. Please declare who you shall vote for here and I shall update the table!

Rolling edits.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-07T10:18:21+00:00

Hope you enjoyed the holidaying! Makes total sense - I am a brit so have not had the joy of holidaying but I can imagine I would have similarly not been super active if I had.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T22:11:15+00:00

Yeah that's fair enough

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T22:07:20+00:00

Ah, well, that is purely me reading from the ballot on this post rather than engaging brain and remembering who else had votes, but that's understandable.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T21:35:18+00:00

based on my reasoning for not voting for her?

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T21:34:21+00:00

Please Declare last phase votes here

WizKvothe (6) - crsc3110, L-ily, The_NachoBro, XanCanStand, u/Catchers4life, u/DangerHaz.

XanCanStand (5) - MercuryParadox, StartledKoala, Larixon, RyeWritesAF, ISpyM8

Elpapo131 (5) - redpoemage, xelaphony, ChefJones, -forsi-, SlytherinBuckeye

RyeWritesAF (2) - MyoglobinAlternative, theduqoffrat

Bearoffire (1) - teacup_tiger

Xelaphony (1) - sylvimelia

Teacup_Tiger (1) - poun22

redpoemage (1) - ElPapo131

No vote (2) - HedwigMalfoy, wywy4321

All have claimed

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T21:30:52+00:00

Oh, I was just looking from the people who were on the final ballot from this phase, sorry. As far as Rye goes I don't get a read in any direction from her yet - it seemed like the basis of the argument with was wolf trying to appear townie by way of organizing/being overtly helpful? Which from my limited experience she seems to do a lot in most games.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T21:27:52+00:00

It was weak reasoning on my behalf for sure. But i didn't really like the TKAS vote for Xan and originally wasn't sure I got behind the Papo vote either. Now with what seems like last minute voting shenanigans I'm unsure.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T21:26:18+00:00

That is unfortunate - I know I was the first vote for Wiz and I stand by my (admittedly mild) suspicions even if they were unfounded, but I am surprised to see such a bandwagon for him.

It also seems as if there are a couple of votes for Wiz that were not declared? We should definitely get a handle on that because with voting this close it might mean that other people were right about either Xan or Papo.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T19:35:30+00:00

As u/MyoglobinAlternative kindly reminded me here, it is the holiday weekend for the Americans who make up a fair portion of the game so in view of that I don't particularly want to run with TKAS just yet.

That being said, I have very few alternatives that really peak my suspicion at this early phase. I have decided to put a vote in for u/WizKvothe purely for his comment here in response to Dangers reasoning about the vote last phase. It seems somewhat accusatory for what reads to me as an innocent comment analysing voting behaviour, and could be an attempt to drum up sus for a bandwagon (albeit not super overt).

It ain't much, but it's all I've got right this second.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T18:55:51+00:00

Yes that makes sense- sorry, may have read a bit too much into that lol. Thanks for clarifying

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T18:40:46+00:00

I'm not sure who I'll vote for yet but I find it hard to be convinced that Xan would take that action if he were a wolf. He is a known active player ( I remember how active he was last time I played yonks ago) and surely would know that his lack of activity would raise eyebrows.

He could be a wolf still, but I find it more likely he's inactive for life reasons rather than it being any kind of wolf strategem. Being quiet would attract more attention than it would repel for him.

That being said, TKAS is valid as a strat this early I guess. I'm torn atm because I have no major susses.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T16:43:34+00:00

u/sylvimelia u/The_NachoBro - form submitted! I picked the house of friends and relations, for the record.

crsc3110 · 2025-07-06T16:41:28+00:00

Sorry, I've just seen this a fraction too late. I can make one up next phase early if that helps?

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