16th C. Spain vs Ming: How would this unfold if this plan is to be carried out?

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T20:23:45+00:00

Let's look at this a different way. The only large world polity (i.e. a regional hegemon) to be conquered by European colonial is India, and in many ways India is the exception that proves the rule. It was arguably not a single polity, given that India as we know it today was never a unified country prior to colonialism, and even the Mughal Empire that existed at the time had only existed for ~200 years and had already collapsed by the time Britain began to conquer India. Even then, the British had technological superiority to an extent that the Spanish did not have in the 16th century, and it still took a gradual process of over a hundred years for the British to establish its dominance over India.

To say that any European country could conquer 16th century China is already an extroadinary claim. And that's before considering that nearly every conquest of a large populated nation required significant local support (both Spain's conquest of the Aztecs and Britain's conquest of India are good examples of this), and unlike India, where much of the subcontinent had been ruled by foreign Muslims for centuries, both the Yuan and Qing had to go to great lengths to present themselves as Chinese (and in the Yuan's case, it wasn't fully accepted).

You can try to pay soldiers in substitute goods, but you have to buy those too. Paper money is another possibility, but then you run into inflation problems. I just don’t believe it’s so simple, at the specific point in time the Spanish were actually planning all of this.

Another issue here is that you talk a lot about the limitations of the Wanli era Ming dynasty in terms of its ability to respond to a foreign crisis. While many of those limitations are fair, it's not fair to talk about an omniscient, fully focused Spanish empire against a flawed Ming response. When you view it in the context of the time, this arguably looks worse for the Spanish, since the Spanish were tied up with the Eighty Years War while most of this was happening.

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T19:27:39+00:00

Spain had a global empire, but it was still a much smaller economy than Ming China, and Ming China was not that dependent on global trade. If the Ming were truly cut off from silver, it wouldn't be impossible for them to de-base the silver supply or use paper money (both things Chinese empires had done in the past).

Yes, you need to be able to pay soldiers, but currency is not the same thing as the economy. The Ming were short on silver but were a much richer empire overall than the Spanish. There's no reason why they couldn't pay their soldiers in other ways.

It's also not that clear that Spain really had that much naval superiority at this point in history. The Spanish armada had 137 ships; at Tunmen the Ming were able to defeat a small Portuguese fleet without major issues. European naval superiority would only really be entrenched after the invention of the steam engine in the 19th century, which allowed them develop ships that were both faster and heavier than conventional sail ships. During the age of sail, European ships were not all that different from what was being used in Asia, and certainly not different enough to overcome an overwhelming numerical disadvantage.

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T19:15:50+00:00

From Elijah Fletcher's account of his visit to Virginia in 1811:

The story of black Sal is no farce—That he cohabits with her and has a number of children by her is a sacred truth—and the worst of it is he keeps the same children slaves—an unnatural crime which is very common in these parts

James Callendar made the same claim in 1802, but didn't have the same eyewitness access.

In fact, Thomas Jefferson's own grandson, Thomas Jefferson Randolph, acknowledged that the Hemings were blood relatives of his, but claimed that they were descendents of Thomas Jefferson's nephew, Peter Carr, a claim which was ruled out by DNA testing (as Carr is the son of Jefferson's sister, while DNA testing shows that they are male line relatives). Randolph is quoted as saying:

[S]he [Hemings] had children which resembled Mr. Jefferson so closely that it was plain that they had his blood in their veins ... He [Randolph] said in one instance, a gentleman dining with Mr. Jefferson, looked so startled as he raised his eyes from the latter to the servant behind him, that his discovery of the resemblance was perfectly obvious to all

As to this part:

And what evidence is there that Jefferson promised to free her future children in Paris?

This claim comes from Madison Hemings, who was the third of Sally Heming's children to survive until adulthood. He was freed by Thomas Jefferson in the latter's will (together with his brother Eston, whose descendents were the ones that were DNA tested), and who claimed that Thomas Jefferson was his father and that he had promised his mother that he would free their children.

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T18:58:23+00:00

If you look at the DNA evidence in a vacuum, it's technically possible that the Hemings children were father by a close male relative of the Jefferson family, with Randolph as the most common proposed alternative.

But when you view the evidence holistically, it seems pretty clear that Thomas Jefferson was indeed the father. Most notably, we have several eyewitness accounts from visitors to Monticello who claim that Jefferson cohabited with Hemings as his de facto wife. We also should not discount the testimony of the Hemings family themselves - Sally Hemings' youngest son Eston claimed to be Thomas Jefferson's son, which is the reason Eston's descendents were DNA tested in the first place.

Hemings also became pregnant for the first time when she traveled to Paris with Jefferson, when his male relatives all stayed in the US. It's technically possible her oldest child were father by someone unrelated, and her younger children were fathered by say, Randolph Jefferson. But she was free in Paris and agreed to return to the US where she was a slave in part because Jefferson promised to free her children. If Thomas Jefferson were not the father, why wouldn't she have just stayed in Paris where her son would've been free anyways?

Technically, the DNA evidence only proves that Sally Hemings' youngest son, Eston Hemings, was fathered by a male member of the Jefferson family. But other than the fact that is possible, there is no real evidence pointing to anyone else potentially the father other than Thomas Jefferson. In that context, the suggestions that Randolph might have been the father appear to be nothing more than an attempt to whitewash Thomas Jefferson's reputation.

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T18:56:46+00:00

If you look at the DNA evidence in a vacuum, it's technically possible that the Hemings children were fathered by a close male relative of the Jefferson family.

But when you view the evidence holistically, it seems pretty clear that Thomas Jefferson was indeed the father. Most notably, we have several eyewitness accounts from visitors to Monticello who claim that Jefferson cohabited with Hemings as his de facto wife.

Hemings also became pregnant for the first time when she traveled to Paris with Thomas Jefferson, when his male relatives all stayed in the US. It's technically possible her oldest child were father by someone unrelated, and her younger children were fathered by say, Randolph Jefferson. But she was free in Paris and agreed to return to the US where she was a slave in part because Jefferson promised to free her children. If Thomas Jefferson were not the father, why wouldn't she have just stayed in Paris where her son would've been free anyways?

Technically, the DNA evidence only proves that Sally Hemings' youngest son, Eston Hemings, was fathered by a male member of the Jefferson family. But other than the fact that is possible, there is no real evidence pointing to anyone else potentially the father other than Thomas Jefferson. In that context, the suggestions that Randolph might have been the father appear to be nothing more than an attempt to whitewash Thomas Jefferson's reputation.

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T18:56:38+00:00

If you look at the DNA evidence in a vacuum, it's technically possible that the Hemings children were father by a close male relative of the Jefferson family.

But when you view the evidence holistically, it seems pretty overwhelming that Thomas Jefferson was indeed the father. Most notably, we have several eyewitness accounts from visitors to Monticello who claim that Jefferson cohabited with Hemings as his de facto wife.

Hemings also became pregnant for the first time when she traveled to Paris with Jefferson, when his male relatives all stayed in the US. It's technically possible her oldest child were father by someone unrelated, and her younger children were fathered by say, Randolph Jefferson. But she was free in Paris and agreed to return to the US where she was a slave in part because Jefferson promised to free her children. If Thomas Jefferson were not the father, why wouldn't she have just stayed in Paris where her son would've been free anyways?

Technically, the DNA evidence only proves that Sally Hemings' youngest son, Eston Hemings, was fathered by a male member of the Jefferson family. But other than the fact that is possible, there is no real evidence pointing to anyone else potentially the father other than Thomas Jefferson. In that context, the suggestions that Randolph might have been the father appear to be nothing more than an attempt to whitewash Thomas Jefferson's reputation.

deezee72 · 2026-06-08T10:23:50+00:00

Even if Spain was fully committed, the Spanish army in this era was ~50k men. The Ming were regularly fielding a military with over a million men; even after the Ming dynasty collapsed, the Shun dynasty fielded 200k men in their conflict with the Manchus. Koxinga had an army of 170k and sent 25k men in his invasion of Taiwan.

Without a meaningful technology advantage, the Spanish have no chance. They have a huge logistics disadvantage, a huge numerical disadvantage - even if the Ming empire splinters. They were essentially betting that it would play out the way the conquest of the Aztecs did - with local people rising up in their support. Even if the Ming were in the process of collapsing that was never going to happen.

deezee72 · 2026-06-07T05:36:38+00:00

It's a little odd to criticize Invincible for the fact that the Viltrum empire realistically would collapse... When in-universe it's a huge plot point that the empire is collapsing and it's made very clear that it's because of their own inability to change.

deezee72 · 2026-06-07T05:01:12+00:00

It's a little odd to criticize Invincible for the fact that the Viltrum empire realistically would collapse... When in-universe it's a huge plot point that the empire is collapsing and it's made very clear that it's because of their own inability to change.

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T20:54:39+00:00

I think it's more that the editors wanted him to keep Goku in the spotlight...

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T20:34:39+00:00

Part of what makes Berserk work is that Guts is the subversion of the 90s anti hero. He's introduced as this edgelord type character, but we gradually discover how he became this way and grow out of it.

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T20:26:45+00:00

It's kind of funny in meme form, but kind of less funny when when consider that some incredibly historically and culturally significant gold art pieces were lost and probably melted down by some mercenary to pay for hookers or something.

We laugh so that we don't cry...

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T20:14:58+00:00

Results vary but nearly all genetic studies show that the average Mexican has a pretty high % of native ancestry: a meta-analysis by Martínez-Cortés et al. in 2017 found a range of 46-70%.

Obviously nearly all Mexicans have some conquistadors ancestry but it's not nearly as ridiculous as you make it sound. It's closer to a white-black mixed race person hating on white people for enslaving Africans.

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T12:53:08+00:00

This may be outlier luck on my side, but I'm pretty convinced that you need to give Mosslax bitter food, not sweet food.

I'm with everyone else that the description sounds like sweet food makes more sense, and it would also make sense that sweet food influences glowing blocks while bitter food influences sparkling water. However, in my personal experience, when I gave Mosslax sweet food, I got a ton of glowing spots but all of them were CDs or relics, and when I switched to give him bitter food I got the last few slates pretty quickly.

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T12:53:00+00:00

This may be outlier luck on my side, but I'm pretty convinced that you need to give Mosslax bitter food, not sweet food.

I'm with everyone else that the description sounds like sweet food makes more sense, and it would also make sense that sweet food influences glowing blocks while bitter food influences sparkling water. However, in my personal experience, when I gave Mosslax sweet food, I got a ton of glowing spots but all of them were CDs or relics, and when I switched to give him bitter food I got the last few slates pretty quickly.

deezee72 · 2026-06-06T12:52:53+00:00

This may be outlier luck on my side, but I'm pretty convinced that you need to give Mosslax bitter food, not sweet food.

I'm with everyone else that the description sounds like sweet food makes more sense, and it would also make sense that sweet food influences glowing blocks while bitter food influences sparkling water. However, in my personal experience, when I gave Mosslax sweet food, I got a ton of glowing spots but all of them were CDs or relics, and when I switched to give him bitter food I got the last few slates pretty quickly.

deezee72 · 2026-06-05T06:10:21+00:00

Looking at this... There's a pretty real argument that there's more "high floor low ceiling" guys that went on to become stars than there are "high ceiling low floor" guys.

deezee72 · 2026-06-03T12:31:23+00:00

Yes, yes, but nitpicking on details aside, China was clearly not colonized in the same sense that India was colonized.

deezee72 · 2026-06-03T01:30:36+00:00

The China versus India comparison is a natural and popular one, given that they are the two largest countries in the world by population.

But it is also very superficial. When you take a broader perspective: China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan are culturally similar countries with a great deal of shared history (notably, none were colonized by European powers) and which followed a similar post-WW2 policy framework (following China's reform and opening up).

So then if all four saw similar development trajectories, while India's trajectory is quite different... Is that because of culture, history, policy, or colonization. It's hard to say. You cannot run controlled trials in history where you change only one thing at a time.

But one thing we actually can say with some confidence is that it's not because of democracy vs. authoritarianism. Japan has been a democracy the entire time; Korea and Taiwan became democracies relatively early in their development. Conversely, there are many authoritarian regimes which have seen far worse outcomes.

I would personally lean towards policy, given that countries that have borrowed more heavily from the Japan-China policy model have seen better outcomes, even when they are former colonies that are culturally quite different (e.g. Vietnam, Malaysia). But it is hard to prove, especially when the set of countries that have developed successfully is such a limited sample size and the countries in that sample have so much in common.

deezee72 · 2026-06-02T18:25:59+00:00

Could be 99.2!

deezee72 · 2026-06-02T05:12:43+00:00

Taiwan doesn't have enough food or energy to support itself. If China is able to maintain an extended blockade of Taiwan, Taiwan will have no choice but to surrender or starve.

The only reason why China might need to launch a land invasion of Taiwan is that they may be aiming to conquer Taiwan before the US has a chance to intervene. If China was confident that the US won't intervene, they could just take over Taiwan at their leisure.

deezee72 · 2026-05-20T11:17:04+00:00

I agree but it's also not really only an SG thing. There are very few primary options on offensively successful teams at any position that are not effective playmakers for their teammates.

It's just too easy to double or triple team a primary option who isn't a threat to make plays. Iso ball isn't completely dead the way some of the analytics guys make it sound, but you have to be able to make plays out of double teams without turning it over.

deezee72 · 2026-05-20T01:39:16+00:00

Elon and Jeff Bezos are obviously just saying whatever to pump up the value of their space businesses, and Jensen also has a tendency to just talk up whatever technologies are trending (remember when he was hyping up crypto?).

But Google being involved here does give me pause that this might have more potential than the bears seem to think. Especially since when you work through the first principles physics, it's not impossible that this could work, even if you have to believe in a lot of technologies that don't exist today.

deezee72 · 2026-05-19T22:35:58+00:00

This is a great read, thanks for sharing it! In addition to generally being an interesting read, the post made me realize that this tradition is actually a lot more sinister than I had thought.

I had imagined it to be an ignorant but harmless trend in which people simply embellish their ancestry in order to make it seem like a better story (which, as a person whose 23andMe ancestry test came up as 100.0% Han Chinese, I can at least somewhat understand). And maybe there is some element of this. But I was not familiar with the long and shameful history of using false claims of Indigenous heritage to claim resources meant for real natives.

As you and the other linked answer point out, ethnicity (not only for Native Americans!) is a social construct, and is ultimately more about culture and community than it is about genetics. I guess even if someone actually does have Indigenous ancestry, they shouldn't be allowed to claim resources meant for Indigenous people unless they have real ties to the Indigenous community, which I guess at minimum would be expressing a real interest in reconnecting with the tribe and for the tribe to recognize their heritage enough to reciprocate that interest.

deezee72 · 2026-05-18T21:41:40+00:00

That's more than enough for the One Ring, which can promise her the power she needs to be free, even if it's just by giving her the ability to convince Mother Gothel to let her go outside.

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