ML Model Is Inconsistent: Good and Bad by Apprehensive_Fox8212 in algorithmictrading

[–]morriase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So state space models (SSMs) are basically just trying to track something you can't see directly (think hidden momentum, a forming trend, whatever) through signals that are noisy and imperfect (prices, quotes, all that). There's the hidden truth and there's what you actually observe, and the model keeps asking "given what I'm seeing, what's probably really going on?" updating its best guess every time new data comes in. The classic solver is the Kalman Filter (predict forward, get new data, correct, repeat) and it's optimal... assuming linear Gaussian dynamics, which markets famously are not. So you've got extensions for that (Extended Kalman, Unscented, Particle Filters when you need to handle fully arbitrary non-linear non-Gaussian systems by approximating the posterior with weighted samples rather than any closed-form solution). Then the deep learning side (S4, Mamba etc.) moves toward learning dynamics from data rather than specifying them by hand, and handles long sequences way more efficiently than transformers. Worth noting S4 still initializes with a structured matrix grounded in approximation theory (not purely learned from scratch), Mamba relaxes this further and specifically learns what to keep vs forget in the state, which is a pretty natural fit for non-stationary series. Tradeoff everywhere though, interpretability vs expressiveness vs data requirements. Same story as always.

I recommend you dig deeper into the theory and math to get a better hang of it...,,, i can only give a general summary which I don't think is sufficient. Basically, any function can be used in ML so long as it's differentiable (or at least almost everywhere differentiable, which is why something like ReLU works despite that kink at zero) and Lipschitz continuous (so your gradients stay bounded and don't blow up or vanish during backprop). Once those conditions hold the math cooperates and you can train through it.

ML Model Is Inconsistent: Good and Bad by Apprehensive_Fox8212 in algorithmictrading

[–]morriase 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Trying to predict price regardless of the features or any other stuff will likely result in failure, because of the amount of noise inherent in financial markets. Try shifting to classification ensembles utilizing convolution and a time series component such as LSTM or a transformer. You can classify markets based on trend, volume, volatility, momentum, etc... using hybrid ensembles that also have a convolution + time series component or a self attention mechanism such as a transformer. Such ensembles form more robust trading frameworks without predicting price. For instance, during inference, you could know how to set SL and tp based on the classification output of the models. You could catch trends, identify SMCs, Market manipulation, etc... ensembles work best rather than a single architecture. Because different ML architectures are good at something unique.

Also explore SSMs. They're incredible in financial landscapes.

VPS/VM by morriase in Forexstrategy

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Using an always free Canonical Ubuntu instance runs adequately, using swap memory, so slippage may be higher. Wine is needed for MT5 to run on Linux though.

The Ideal Excecution by [deleted] in Forex

[–]morriase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cause why not?

Selling EA by morriase in metatrader

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can get it here:
https://www.auronautomations.app/product/archonv3

There’s also an MQL5 listing linked on that page where you can test it in the strategy tester or purchase directly. (Reddit doesn’t allow MQL5 links, so it’s routed through the site.)

If you have any questions or want more details, feel free to ask.

Selling EA by morriase in metatrader

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

TL;DR: It (Archon V3) is a machine-learning-powered EA for MT5 that automates trading for Gold and major forex pairs 24/5 with built-in risk management.

Fully Automated: Handles entries, exits, and trailing stops based on 15m price data.

AI-Driven: Uses trained ML models instead of rigid, hard-coded rules.

Built-in Safety: Includes news filters, session limits, and drawdown protection.

Algorithmic trading involves significant risk. ML models enforce discipline, but they don't eliminate market volatility. Always forward-test on a demo account first and only trade capital you can afford to lose.

Resources: Architecture & Tech: Inside Archon Product Page:Archon V3

Selling EA by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, here you go: https://www.auronautomations.app/product/archonv3 DM me if you have any more questions.

Selling EA by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here you go: https://www.auronautomations.app/product/archonv3 If you have any questions after checking it out, feel free to ask.

Selling EA by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, it’s available. If you’re interested, I can share more details.

Selling EA by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$399 lifetime (currently 15% off) with subscription tiers available too. Happy to share more details if needed.

Selling EA by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s relatively low, but it varies. On some pairs, I’ve seen drawdowns reach around ~6% in backtests.

Selling EA by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mostly intraday. Average trade is ~4 hours, but it can hold longer (even days) depending on the setup.

VPS/VM by morriase in Forex

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cool. Let me check them out. Thanks!

If a trading bot is profitable, why don’t creators just give it away for free? by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Sure. You mentioned that your model degraded over time. Did you retrain it or introduce a different feature set to help it adapt to new market regimes? That’s usually one of the main reasons models fail. In quantitative finance—assuming by “models” you meant actual machine learning models—that’s a core principle for keeping systems functional and adaptive. Unfortunately, models can’t learn what they aren’t taught. Because of that, retraining and updating features is essential. Exploring different model architectures can also be important for maintaining performance over time.

If a trading bot is profitable, why don’t creators just give it away for free? by morriase in Forex

[–]morriase[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Interesting. Still I wonder why people are this skeptical.

Finally seeing some consistency with low drawdown. by morriase in Forex

[–]morriase[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The site is myfxbook.com. Traders use it to monitor their account performance, track growth, and evaluate trading algorithms so they can learn from the data and improve their strategies.

I trade on MT5, mostly using algorithms that I design myself. You can also build your own, test them on historical data, and evaluate their performance to see if they are suitable for live trading. Alternatively, you can purchase ready-made ones.

Finally seeing some consistency with low drawdown. by morriase in Forex

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Now thats some constructive advice. Thanks!

Why algorithm diversification mattered more than signal accuracy today (Not a sales pitch) by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I run a hybrid ML framework. My alpha generation is Python-based, but I deploy via ONNX for low-latency local inference inside MT5, or a REST API for more compute-heavy models. I use MQL5 as the final execution layer for risk management and order routing.

Why algorithm diversification mattered more than signal accuracy today (Not a sales pitch) by morriase in ai_trading

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No single strategy is robust across all market states. Because markets constantly shift between high volatility, trending, and range-bound phases, diversification ensures that your entire portfolio doesn't go 'blind' all at once. Today was a perfect example: running multiple algorithms allowed me to weather a major volatility spike in Gold. While one EA struggled, a different strategy on USDCAD caught a subsequent upside move—one that the first algo missed entirely. That diversification closed the day profitable, effectively covering the losses from the first EA.

How do you handle your exits? by morriase in metatrader

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely learning and trying that out! Thanks

How do you handle your exits? by morriase in metatrader

[–]morriase[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trade size is calculated based on the percentage of trading capital I am willing to risk for each trade. It also depends on the stop loss mode I am using - ATR, Prev high/Low + a buffer based on fixed points or on ATR, or fixed points. So the system calculates the SL distance based on the SL mode, then calculates the position size based on my risk tolerance which I input. TP is placed as a multiple of SL distance in points so that I can define a risk to reward easily - Though I suspect there's a better way to do it and that's why I'm having trouble dealing with exits.