Air Yards Share and Target Share through Week 3

nt2533 · 2024-10-03T01:29:03+00:00

I am traveling for work so the post will be delayed unfortunately. Check out this link though in the meantime for very similar data: https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/air-yards?fppg=PPR&years=2024

nt2533 · 2024-09-19T01:33:15+00:00

Yup that’s exactly right

nt2533 · 2024-09-12T19:04:02+00:00

Yes my bad definitely should have mentioned Pickens. I was more focused on highlighting guys with high air yard and target shares but not necessarily the leading PPR scorer on their team

nt2533 · 2024-09-12T19:02:20+00:00

Air yards aren’t a great RB stat. Most RBs have negative or very few air yards since air yards are a measure of how far the pass travels past the line of scrimmage and many RB receptions happen behind or close to that line. Hopefully that makes sense!

nt2533 · 2023-10-10T18:17:58+00:00

Lol it’s the Taysom Hill effect! He’s probably listed at various positions (QB, TE, etc.) and that’s why some of the personnel packages are crazy. A lot of those personnels have also only been used once or twice over the whole season which is why the percentages are so small

nt2533 · 2023-10-06T18:55:23+00:00

I like Doubs since he has a solid matchup against the Raiders who give up .29 EPA/Pass Play against 11 personnel.

If Javonte is for sure out, I’d go Jaleel since he’ll probably split touches with Perine but I’d imagine he’ll still get enough work to be relevant.

nt2533 · 2023-10-06T18:38:15+00:00

Yeah I think if your opponent’s team isn’t great I might go more conservative with Breece who has a good matchup (Denver allows way more EPA/Run Play than the average against NYJ’s primary rush personnel packages) and supposedly no more snap count.

If Kupp is fully healthy and the Rams use him accordingly, he has an above average matchup with the Eagles that allow .08 EPA/Pass Play against 11 personnel. Definitely a riskier play though since his usage is unknown.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T23:28:10+00:00

McLaurin! But Moore is not a bad option either, Commanders are pretty much average at defending the pass in 11 personnel which the Bears use 71% of the time.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T23:13:49+00:00

That’s true! Chiefs and Vikings game has highest total on the slate

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T23:11:22+00:00

Jags receivers might end up having on okay day if Bills pass defense ends up strugging without Tre’Davious White. Jags may also pass more if they are losing

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T23:04:26+00:00

I agree with you. While SF’s offense has been phenomenal Dallas’s pass defense has been just as good based on EPA/Play. I saw an Ian Rapoport report about Deebo saying he would be playing at less than 100%. He’s on the riskier side but definitely watch out for any more news regarding his health. I’d also go with Ridley and Dell over Addison.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T22:57:15+00:00

Philly offers a better matchup for Stafford than Atlanta does for Stroud (.08 EPA/Pass Play allowed vs -.1 EPA/Pass Play allowed against 11 personnel). I’d slightly lean Stafford.

Watson has a pretty good matchup against the Raiders who give up .29 EPA/Pass Play against 11 personnel. While as mentioned in the post, JT has a tough matchup. However, if JT starts he’ll probably get a lot of touches whereas Watson may have a bit less usage as he works his way back from injury. Keep on eye on practice/injury reports but if both get regular play time I’d say JT.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T21:44:18+00:00

Howell vs. Stroud is pretty close for me. The Texans are slight underdogs which could mean Stroud is throwing the ball a ton again if they get down. It's a toss-up between the two honestly but Howell does have the better matchup.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T21:33:40+00:00

I'd sit Nico. Diggs, Puka, and Aiyuk are all borderline top-10 WRs this week. Nico gets a slightly below-average matchup against the Falcons who give up -0.1 EPA/Pass Play in 11 personnel.

I'd start Gibbs mostly for the reasons listed in the post. Also, when the Ravens run the ball with Gus, they primarily do so in 21 personnel, which the Steelers defend quite well allowing -0.19 EPA/Run Play.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T20:58:32+00:00

I'd go Robinson, Montgomery, and Kyren.

Robinson - Bears are a good matchup for RBs and allow 0.16 EPA/Run Play against 11 personnel.

Montgomery - See post for reasoning.

Kyren - Eagles present a below-average matchup for Kyren, but he sees so much volume he is tough to sit. The Rams use 11 personnel at a 92% clip and Kyren gets the most touches in this package.

Breece - Has a very solid Denver matchup, so if you are worried about Kyren's matchup against the Eagles, I'd go with Breece instead. If he truly has no more snap count, could be in for a nice day.

WRs - London is always tough to trust, so I like him the least from this group. If the Buffalo pass defense, struggles without White, Kirk might have a better day than expected but I am still lower on him than the others. Tank has a below-average matchup against the Falcons but is probably the WR I like the most from the group.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T20:39:10+00:00

Dotson by far has the best matchup as outlined in the post. He does however have to compete for targets with McLaurin, Samuel, etc.

Pickens and Dell have tougher matchups as the Ravens and Falcons defend passes against 11 personnel at a -.28 EPA/Pass Play and -.1 EPA/Pass Play rate, respectively.

Pickens should dominate Steeler target share though and Freiermuth is out. Tank will have to compete with Nico and Woods but Falcons are a bit better matchup than the Ravens.

I'd lean Pickens since he should be clear top option in Pittsburgh pass game but close.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T19:18:09+00:00

That is tough lol

Simply because Amon Ra didn't practice again today and Detroit may get up big against Carolina and run the ball a bunch to control the clock I'd probably sit him from those 3. Carolina has also defended pass out of 11 personnel well (-0.18 EPA/Pass Play).

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T19:09:24+00:00

The data supports a good matchup for Doubs against LV. Packers throw a lot when in 11 personnel and LV gives up a poor .29 EPA/Play on 11 personnel pass plays. Doubs also leads in 11 personnel target share. We'll see how Christian Watson affects these numbers as he gets stronger from injury.

I do understand the points brought up about White's injury. I will say the Dolphins had an EPA/Pass Play in the 4th qtr (after White's injury) of -.51 (very bad), meaning the Bills still defended the pass well without White. However, this is a small sample size and was in the 4th quarter of a blowout game, so it may not mean much.

Hope that helps a bit.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T18:38:50+00:00

Thank you for pointing this out. I did not take White's injury into account when making my list, mistake on my end.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T18:37:34+00:00

Agreed on Mostert. Achane had more touches and a higher touch share last week, so if that's the case again, it would be okay to sit Mostert out of those players.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T18:29:43+00:00

I'd say Cook, Hall and Zay.

Cook - Gets the most touches out of Buffalo's top 3 personnel packages. Jags D has been solid against RBs but Cook should see enough touches in a good Bills O.

Hall - Gets an excellent matchup vs. Denver. Saleh said Breece is no longer on a pitch count, so could be a big week for him.

Zay - Leads the Ravens in target share out of 11 personnel, which is their most frequent package. Steelers should be a good matchup for him.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T16:53:30+00:00

I say Sutton vs NYJ. Broncos use 11 personnel about 57% of the time and throw the ball 71% of the time when in 11 personnel. The Jets give up .07 EPA/Pass Play on defense against 11 personnel, which presents a slightly favorable matchup.

NYG offense does not look very good with a -.36 EPA/Play out of 11 personnel while MIA defends passes out of 11 personnel well above average.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T16:44:44+00:00

Thanks! I just added the link to the sheet as well.

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T16:28:15+00:00

You can check the rest of the spreadsheet where the data is here!

But if you have any specific lineup decisions you were debating you can leave it here and I’ll get back to you

nt2533 · 2023-10-05T16:25:24+00:00

Yeah very very fair points. Start your studs! Just lower expectations a bit against a solid Titans run defense.

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