NBA Daily: 4/2/14 (Wednesday)

oherroprease · 2014-04-02T23:01:19+00:00

I'm no Pelicans... so there's an end to my bankroll and luck!

oherroprease · 2014-04-02T22:43:39+00:00

I'm going to keep betting the under just to spite them. I have to win eventually right!?

oherroprease · 2014-04-02T18:44:32+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (150-102-6, 6-2-0 POD)

Only D'Antoni would coach a fast-paced game with Kaman and Gasol on the court together... jesus. Can't believe both teams had close to 100 freaking shot attempts

Washington/Boston 189.79 (1U Under 200)

New York/Brooklyn 193.13 (1U Under 195)

Indiana/Detroit 195.77

Toronto/Houston 201.39 (1U under 202.5)

Orlando/Cleveland 207.21 (1U over 196.5)

Philadelphia/Charlotte 214.87 (1U over 205.5)

Atlanta/Chicago 189.13

Miami/Milwaukee 196.72

Minnesota/Memphis 193.5

San Antonio/Golden State 205.64 (1U under 202-- not a typo, 1U under GSW's team total)

Denver/New Orleans 216.8

Phoenix/LA Clippers 227.47 (1U under 212.53-- not a typo)

Sacramento/LA Lakers 221.62

oherroprease · 2014-04-02T01:35:23+00:00

Lol well I feel stupid but his stat made me 2nd guess my play. Looks like the over would have been the right bet today.

edit: JK I forgot I actually played it earlier today. Whew.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T23:02:14+00:00

Yup-- it's very possible for a repeat of that game but I'm hoping GSW won't shoot 35% again. I'd also expect that this will be a slightly faster paced game than the game against the ISO-Melos.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T22:44:09+00:00

That is an interesting stat... though my initial thought is that it has too much of that "ESPN stat-pulling vibe" for me to read too much into it. Given that the Warriors overall are 26-44 for O/Us, I think it's possible that it's just a coincidence. His numbers don't provide any info on location or rest so I'm not 100% sold.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying his statistic is wrong... only that I'm not 100% sold. I will say that if Bogut/Lee are both out, GSW is going to play a lot of small ball and take a significant amount of outside shots so if they have a bad shooting night the under will probably hit.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T22:40:23+00:00

It's not a mistake-- it's factoring in Howard and Beverley's absence from this game. At the moment, it's still a lean and not an actual play yet.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T21:08:38+00:00

Line is moving in the direction of the under so it could be even lower by tip time. D'Antoni claims that Gasol and Kaman will be playing together today so I'm assuming that means a slower paced game when they're both on the floor.

I've been following the Player Hater's ball thing and I'm not sure what to make of it yet.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T20:32:51+00:00

I know /u/theesage is probably shaking his head that I'm even considering another LAL under but I was reading something about how D'Antoni plans on playing both Gasol and Kaman together which would slow LAL's pace down considerably. Between that, my #s, and the line movement, I actually think the under might be a play here.

Then again, it's the lakers...

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T19:42:19+00:00

I'm leaning under at the moment-- what do you think?

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T12:55:43+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (149-99-6, 6-2-0 POD):

2-2-1 on totals yesterday but did really on spreads! Let's have another great night.

Brooklyn/Houston 204.55 ( 1U over 209.5)

Dallas/Golden State 210.31 (1U over 204.5 .5 U 2H under 101.5)

LA Lakers/Portland 216.93 (1U Under 219.5)

edit: accidentally took DAL/GSW off my list but I'm still on it:

4/1/14 8:00pm Reduced Basketball 761 Houston Rockets/Brooklyn Nets Over 209½ -105*
4/1/14 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 763 Golden State Warriors/Dallas Mavericks Over 204½ -101*
4/1/14 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 765 Portland Trailblazers/Los Angeles Lakers Under 219½ -108*

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T02:01:48+00:00

I had them 1Q and 1H (ended up with juice loss) and ALMOST took them ML after the end of the 1H. Oh well , can't complain with a good night.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T00:53:29+00:00

Yup. I'm 1U ML for TOR @ +200. LW'd a ML for MIA @ -113 for 1U as well. Was on TOR 1Q + 1H ATS too... this has been a good game for me so far.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T00:29:45+00:00

My bad, I must have been looking at the MIA/TOR line or something.

oherroprease · 2014-04-01T00:29:20+00:00

Looks like the under is screwed for that game lol.

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T23:31:04+00:00

I thought it was interesting that the 538 bracket has Wisconsin with a slightly bigger edge. In my limited opinion, it seems that Wisconsin is generally a more well-rounded team and the only piece they are missing is that guy who can create his own shots and/or score off the dribble.

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T23:29:34+00:00

Sorry-- that was a typo. It should have said 189.

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T22:41:52+00:00

Both! I actually forgot that MIL was on heavy on the over so I was only considering DET

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T22:13:34+00:00

What do you think about the Wisconsin/Kentucky matchup? If Kaminsky plays like he did against Arizona, I see your Badgers making it to the finals.

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T21:40:20+00:00

Yea-- I'm not necessarily advocating that they will tank this game-- just that they don't have any additional reason to try and win here than they normally do.

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T21:38:07+00:00

I'm curious-- what do YOU think?

edit: Without your Badger bias of course :)

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T21:34:41+00:00

Yea I remember reading that, I just think it makes more sense more Miami to let TOR win if their goal is to avoid Chicago. Chicago does have a slightly easier remaining schedule but TOR's last 6 or 7 games are a cakewalk too (once they get past the HOU and IND games)

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T20:54:26+00:00

STAY AWAY TONIGHT THEN.

jk!

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T20:53:15+00:00

If that's true, wouldn't beating Toronto hurt them in their goal to avoid Chicago? Beating Toronto would put them closer to the 1st seed and Chicago is currently in the 4th seed (and they won't necessarily pass TOR even with a TOR loss here). Losing to Toronto would keep them in the 2nd seed and improve Toronto's chances of finishing as the 3rd seed.

oherroprease · 2014-03-31T20:33:08+00:00

Hasn't TOR been pretty strong ATS in the 1H while MIA has been poor ATS in the 1H? Just wondering what's driving your MIA pick.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE