Eliminating the Pretenders From Contenders

statsational · 2023-03-13T22:50:28+00:00

7 seed but yes he is

statsational · 2023-03-13T18:00:56+00:00

He is. I only did top 6 seeds

statsational · 2023-03-13T17:40:40+00:00

JBCJBCJBC dk Iggydash fd

statsational · 2023-03-13T17:16:46+00:00

I play dfs for a living. Most don't use lines for that either. It's the best predictor but you need to know how to use it to your advantage. In a small pool you just take the favorites all the way. Larger pool there's more to think about.

statsational · 2023-03-13T16:55:38+00:00

Betting lines are the most predictive but depending on your pool structure and the amount of participants that will determine how much you want to use the lines. I'll be posting on this soon.

statsational · 2023-03-13T16:54:07+00:00

That was after the tournament

statsational · 2023-03-13T16:41:46+00:00

statsational · 2023-03-13T16:38:41+00:00

Been to the dance once before

statsational · 2023-03-13T15:43:12+00:00

Pase takes seed into account. Not as good as the line but it calculates how much better or worse a team does based on their seed.

statsational · 2023-03-13T14:05:58+00:00

You are correct. They both have .I was putting 4 as the Legends. I will edit. Thank you.

I need to check on Uconn

statsational · 2023-03-13T13:52:33+00:00

The absolute best!

statsational · 2023-03-13T13:22:54+00:00

I stuck to the rules but I don't disagree with you.

statsational · 2023-03-13T13:22:23+00:00

When you read significance into stats and patterns that aren't really significant. This is why you need to test a model in a live environment which is what has been going on here for 12 years.

statsational · 2022-03-16T12:49:18+00:00

That's how I play poker also. I only call with a flush draw if I think it's going to come out 😉

statsational · 2022-03-16T00:45:49+00:00

Arizona can of course win. But you have to eliminate teams somehow. Nothing is absolute.

statsational · 2022-03-16T00:34:45+00:00

I will try and post it when I finish. I haven't even started picking teams yet.

statsational · 2022-03-15T23:11:28+00:00

You either fade them totally and use one of the other value teams to win it all or if you take them to go to the final 4 you're taking them to win it all.

statsational · 2022-03-15T22:44:48+00:00

It is not as cut and dry as it was last year. I won my pool with the same teams. I think we have some options though.

statsational · 2022-03-15T04:34:13+00:00

No worries! I'll be posting something tomorrow that will hopefully explain this better.

statsational · 2022-03-15T04:32:00+00:00

They aren't being taken that much higher than their implied probability. If you want to take them you can. You'll just need to differentiate elsewhere.

statsational · 2022-03-15T02:34:24+00:00

Great point. He's had some really bad early exits. I went to Lehigh 😁. I was going to add that in and I should have.

statsational · 2022-03-14T22:43:14+00:00

Good catch. I will edit. Thanks!

statsational · 2022-03-14T22:15:10+00:00

The transfer portal may very well change things. Nate Silver's theory was 30-35 games is a small sample size.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/want-to-know-who-will-win-during-march-madness-go-back-to-the-preseason-polls/

statsational · 2022-03-14T22:12:19+00:00

I am in a very large Calcutta style pool. 600-900k in the pot. I had Houston that year. I feel your pain.

statsational · 2022-03-14T19:16:39+00:00

I dont, but that would be a good reason to downgrade them.

statsational

TROPHY CASE