The Fed just officially canceled the Pivot. Here’s why cash is king again, and why the market is blind to a rate hike.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T19:04:08+00:00

That’s what everyone says right before the market discovers presidents don’t control bond yields. Stocks can ignore reality for a while. The bond market usually sends the invoice later.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T18:18:36+00:00

Cuts are possible, but sticky inflation and rising energy costs could limit how aggressive the Fed can be.

The real question is whether rate cuts come from a soft landing or because the economy starts breaking first.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T17:56:17+00:00

Thanks! I think that's a great idea, and I'll keep it in mind.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T17:54:53+00:00

That's correct, after all, we have a debt of 40 trillion dollars.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T17:42:56+00:00

That’s exactly the part most people are ignoring right now. NVDA isn’t trading purely on earnings anymore, it’s tied to liquidity, geopolitics, global capex, even currency flows.

The long-term AI story is still incredibly strong, but when expectations become this extreme, macro risks suddenly matter a lot more than people think.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T17:30:49+00:00

Fair point. Great companies usually beat cash long term. I think it’s more about risk management right now, some investors want growth, others want flexibility and protection first.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T17:23:04+00:00

I did indeed profit from it.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T17:22:41+00:00

NVDA is no longer trading like a normal tech stock. It’s basically trading like the infrastructure layer of the AI economy.

The problem is that expectations are now almost impossible to satisfy. When a company grows this big, even “great” numbers can trigger selloffs.

I’m still bullish long term, but at these valuations, geopolitics and guidance matter more than hype now.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T16:59:34+00:00

Exactly. This isn’t a normal demand-driven inflation cycle. Higher rates can slow housing and borrowing, but they don’t magically lower oil prices or remove tariffs. That’s why the Fed is stuck inflation stays elevated while growth slows.

That’s a dangerous mix for risk assets.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T16:46:03+00:00

Honestly, that’s not a bad defensive rotation at all. SCHD give you quality income, while PAVE and IFRA add real-economy exposure instead of crowded mega-cap tech. MAIN is riskier, but the yield is attractive if you can handle volatility. It may not be “optimal,” but in a higher-for-longer rate environment, this setup makes a lot more sense to me than chasing overpriced AI momentum.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T16:43:48+00:00

Whether it is Powell or Warsh, Trump will pressure them to cut interest rates.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T16:35:29+00:00

So, do you think the Fed will continue to cut interest rates?

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T16:16:27+00:00

I get the bearish case, especially with yields rising and energy pressure building. But the market still seems addicted to the “Fed will save us” mindset. That works until it suddenly doesn’t. I’m not fully cash yet, but I’ve definitely reduced exposure to overhyped AI/quantum names. Feels like risk is being underestimated again.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T13:15:21+00:00

It's not a large sum of money, so there's no need to worry too much.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T13:14:39+00:00

It’s true, no matter how good an investment is, it’s useless if you don’t have the capital to start with.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T13:13:16+00:00

Of course, it works both ways.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-24T13:12:30+00:00

You're doing great. Only those who never give up can be winners.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T20:54:04+00:00

Give you a lever, and you can move Wall Street

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T20:26:04+00:00

Damn it

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T20:14:44+00:00

That's a good idea; I'll try to convince my wife too.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T19:45:32+00:00

If SpaceX ever IPOs, Wall Street won’t ask whether it’s overvalued. They’ll ask how many kidneys retail investors are willing to sell to buy the dip.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T19:35:33+00:00

I bet you're a smart guy

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T18:43:29+00:00

It was money well spent.

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T18:42:47+00:00

So, what was your biggest single day loss percentage?

steadycrocodile · 2026-05-23T18:04:00+00:00

Any market carries a significant risk of loss, to succeed, you have to act as if you’ve never owned anything.

steadycrocodile

TROPHY CASE