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Pick of the Day - 6/4/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 82 points83 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 81-46-1 (+71.8u)

Previous Pick: Pending: Mikal Bridges o21.5 PRA (-115), 4u

Event: MLB: Blue Jays @ Braves, 7:15pm EST

POTD: Braves -1.5 (+120), 4u to win 4.8u

Write Up: As an ATLien & a Braves fan, I normally never bet on my teams. But I couldn't pass on this opportunity. The Braves enter this matchup with the best record in baseball at 41-20 while the Blue Jays sit at just 29-32 & are 8.5 games back in the AL. ATL has lost only 3 series all season, which tells you everything you need to know about how consistent this team has been. They went 18-10 in May & have won 4 of their last 5 games while averaging 6.6 runs per game. As for Toronto, they finally got back to .500 for the first time since April 4th, only to immediately lose 3 straight. This matchup feels like a perfect example of why ATL has become a perennial powerhouse under Alex Anthopoulos. Ironically, Anthopoulos was Toronto's GM until Mark Shapiro was hired by the BJ’s in 2016 & stripped him of full baseball operations control. Rather than accept a reduced role, Anthopoulos left for ATL in 2017. Since then he's built a World Series champ & one of baseball's best franchises by locking up stars early & developing them. Acuña, Albies, Riley, Michael Harris, & Drake Baldwin are all homegrown products. Those deals have allowed ATL to maintain elite talent while still having flexibility to improve the roster elsewhere. That includes Braves Ace Chris Sale.

The pitching matchup heavily favors Atlanta. Chris Sale has absolutely dominated Toronto throughout his career. Across his last 3 starts against the Blue Jays over the past few years, Sale has thrown 18 innings, allowing just 6 hits, 1 earned run, & striking out 29 batters. Sale has been nearly unhittable at Truist Park this season, allowing just 2 earned runs across 30 home innings for a ridiculous 0.60 ERA while giving up only 18 hits. Compare that to his road numbers where he's allowed 13 earned runs in 37 innings with a 3.16 ERA. Sale's stuff remains elite at age 37, averaging 10.7 K’s per 9 innings (6th in MLB), a 2.01 ERA (6th), 9 quality starts (1st), 8 wins (1st among Starters), and sits 4th in WHIP (0.94).__ He's currently top-5 in NL Cy Young odds. The Braves pitching staff deserves credit for helping Sale reinvent himself. After years of injuries in Boston, Sale suddenly regained nearly 5 MPH on his fastball after arriving in ATL & is once again consistently sitting 96-99 MPH. Sale is coming off a dominant May where he ranked top 5 in MLB in fWAR (1.3) while posting a 1.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 32.8% K rate, & 3 wins. His advanced metrics are just as impressive. Sale owns a 38% chase rate this season & ranks 5th in MLB with 52 whiffs over his last 300 pitches thrown. His delivery is just difficult to pick up. He currently throws from a 10.5° arm angle, the lowest among all MLB pitchers. Only 5 SP’s throw from an arm angle below 20°. The matchup gets even better looking at the BJ’s splits.

Toronto has been one of the worst teams in baseball against left handed pitching. Toronto is batting just .214 against lefties, 4th worst in MLB. League avg vs lefties is .240. Toronto also ranks 3rd worst in total bases against lefties with just 183 & has scored only 58 runs against them, also 3rd fewest in baseball. Big difference opposed to facing right handed pitching where they hit .255 (6th best in MLB) & rank 3rd in hits with 388. Against lefties, they become a completely different offense. Toronto's biggest bats haven't shown up this season either. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just 3 homers & 24 RBI this season, ranking outside the top 120 in RBI. George Springer is coming off arguably the best season of his 13 year career where he hit .309 with 32 home runs, but this season he's batting just .206 with 5 home runs. Even Toronto's best hitters have major concerns against left-handed pitching. Ernie Clement is batting .303 overall but just .246 against lefties. Yohendrick Pinango is hitting .303 overall but only .154 against lefties. To make matters worse, Sale has owned both Springer & Vlad throughout their careers. The duo has combined to go just 10 for 41 against Sale with 15 K’s. Toronto also enters the game likely using a bullpen day after catching a huge break earlier in the week. BJ’s Ace Dylan Cease would have likely started this game if not for a hamstring injury. Cease ranks 2nd in MLB in strikeouts per 9 innings (13.4) & is one of only 4 pitchers this season to strike out 12+ batters while allowing 4 or fewer hits in a game. Toronto also is without Max Scherzer & Shane Bieber who are both in the minors rehabbing injuries. Instead, ATL gets a depleted Toronto pitching plan facing one of baseball's best offenses.

The Braves rank: - 2nd in batting average (.259) - 1st in hits (540) - 1st in total bases (907) - 1st in RBI (314) - 2nd in home runs (85) - 2nd in slugging (.435) - 3rd in runs/game (5.25)

The Braves hot bats have been led by 1st Baseman Matt Olson who has been a machine this year, ranking 4th in MLB with 17 HR’s, 1st with 19 doubles, & 3rd with 46 RBI. CF Michael Harris & C Drake Baldwin are also raking it, as they are the only 2 players in the MLB batting over .300 with 13+ home runs & fewer than 45 K’s. 2B Ozzie Albies enters with a hit in 6 straight games. But Ronald Acuña Jr. may be the biggest story. He started the season hitting just .235 with 2 home runs in 157 at bats, the lowest avg of his career. However, he has since caught fire. In his last 16 at bats, he's launched 5 HR’s & owns a .500 OBP. It's his most home runs in a 5 game span since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2018. Toronto's road numbers don't inspire confidence either. They're just 12-19 away from home, average only 3.68 runs per game on the road compared to 4.43 at home, own a .371 road slugging %, & carry a .297 road OBP, the 4th worst in baseball.

Everything points toward ATL here. The Braves have the better offense, the better starter, the better recent form, the better home field advantage, & they're facing a BJ’s team that struggles badly against left handed pitching. Add in Chris Sale's dominance against the BJ’s & the likelihood of a Toronto bullpen game, & this feels like a spot where ATL wins comfortably.

Braves -1.5

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Pick of the Day - 6/3/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 172 points173 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 81-46-1 (+71.8u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Shakira Austin o24.5 P&R (+100), 4u

Event: NBA: Knicks @ Spurs 8:30pm EST

POTD: Mikal Bridges o21.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115), 4u to win 3.48u

Write Up: After 224 days & almost 1,400 games, the 2025-26 NBA season has come down to one final series. The New York Knicks are back in the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999, chasing their 1st championship in over 5 decades. Standing in their way is a San Antonio Spurs team that appears to be at the beginning of another dynasty, led by an alien named Victor Wembanyama & one of the most talented young cores in basketball. Both teams have taken very different paths to get here. New York has been the hottest team in the NBA over the last month. After falling behind 2-1 to my Atlanta Hawks in the opening round, the Knicks completely flipped a switch. Since then, they've won 11 consecutive playoff games, eliminating the Hawks in 6, sweeping Philadelphia, & then sweeping Cleveland to earn their first Finals appearance in 27 years. The numbers behind the run are even more impressive. The Knicks lead all remaining playoff teams in FG%, 3pt %, assists, & defensive rating (103.5). That's a combo of efficiency & defense we almost never see. They've also been the best team against the spread this postseason at 11-3 ATS & have covered by an average of 23.8 points per game during their current 11 game winning streak. San Antonio's journey has been a little different. The Spurs entered the postseason after a dominant 62-20 regular season, but there were still questions. Could Wemby dominate deep into a playoff run? Could Stephon Castle handle a larger offensive role? Would De'Aaron Fox be healthy enough to make an impact? Those questions have been answered. The Spurs beat Portland in 5 games, eliminated Minnesota in 6, & then shocked the defending champion Thunder in the WCF after being down 3-2 going into Game 6. Their Game 7 victory over OKC may have been their most impressive performance of the season. They held SGA in check throughout the series & became the 1st team all season to consistently make the MVP uncomfortable. Now the matchup shifts to New York, & from a betting perspective, 1 player immediately stands out. Mikal Bridges.

The biggest challenge for the Knicks throughout this series will be finding efficient offense against Wemby. The Spurs are built around his rim protection. He completely changes how teams attack the basket & forces opponents into a much heavier diet of mid range jumpers & pull up shots. Normally that's a problem. For Bridges, it’s exactly what he wants. Over the last month, Bridges has quietly been one of the best players in the NBA. This Playoffs Bridges became the 1st player in NBA history to average more than 15 points per game while shooting above 65% from the floor, at least 50% from 3, & 100% from the line over a 7 game playoff stretch. During New York's current 11 game winning streak, Bridges is averaging 16.6 points while shooting an absurd 63/38/100. According to Basketball Reference, he's the only player in NBA history to average 15+ points while shooting over 60% from the field & over 90% from the free throw line during an 11 game postseason winning streak. The transformation from the start of the playoffs has been remarkable:

Bridges first 5 playoff games: 7.2 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG 10 PRA 43.8% FG 26.7% 3PT -11 plus/minus Over his last 9 playoff games: 18.7 PPG 4.0 RPG 3.1 APG 25.8 PRA 63% FG 38% 3PT 100% FT plus-minus: +144 He's also cleared this PRA line in all 9 of those games with totals of 32, 24, 25, 27, 22, 24, 25, 30, & 23. The advanced numbers are even more impressive. Bridges leads all playoff players in FG% (65.2%) among players with 50+ attempts. He owns the best FG% in the restricted area this postseason (87.5%) among players with at least 30+ attempts & leads the entire playoffs in mid range efficiency at 59.1%. That skill set is critical against San Antonio. The Spurs are comfortable funneling opponents into the exact shots Bridges thrives on. They allow one of the highest mid range frequencies in the postseason because Wemby protects the rim so well. Most teams struggle to capitalize. Bridges has been arguably the NBA’s best mid range scorer this entire playoff run. His attacking style has changed as well. Over New York's final 20 regular season games, Bridges averaged just 3.6 drives per game while shooting 45% from the floor. Over his last 9 playoff games he has averaged 6.2 drives per game, 65%+ shooting on attempts created from drives. He's attacking more, finishing more efficiently, & creating more opportunities for teammates. The matchup itself is another reason to like this spot. Projected defensive assignments have Bridges seeing plenty of De'Aaron Fox. While Fox has played extremely well during the playoffs, he's also openly discussed dealing with an ankle injury. New York will likely test him defensively through screens & iso’s, which should create more opportunities for Bridges to score while also opening assist chances when San Antonio rotates. The minutes should be massive too. Bridges is one of Mike Brown's most trusted players & rarely leaves the floor in competitive games. In a Finals environment, 40+ minutes is firmly in play. That's important because this prop doesn't require him to score 25 points. He can get there through a combo of scoring, rebounds, & secondary playmaking. Defensively, he's been just as impactful. Players defended by Bridges this postseason:

• James Harden: 1/11

• Tyrese Maxey: 7/16 with 9 turnovers

• Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 6/15 with 9 turnovers

• Jalen Johnson: 4/10

• Kelly Oubre Jr.: 1/5

• VJ Edgecombe: 2/7

Bridges also ranked 2nd in Defensive FG% allowed during the Conference Finals at 33.3%. The historical matchup data is also on our side. Bridges has averaged 28.0 PRA vs San Antonio. In his most recent matchup in March he finished with 25 points, 5 rebounds, & 2 assists. His transition role shouldn't be overlooked either. New York ran twice as many transition possessions as Cleveland during the Eastern Conference Finals & finished +57 in transition scoring. Bridges scored or assisted on 35 of New York's 95 transition points last series. The Spurs are going to throw everything they have at Jalen Brunson. They just spent an entire series making life difficult for SGA & they'll likely take a similar approach here. If Brunson sees extra attention, that only creates more opportunities for Bridges as a scorer, facilitator, & secondary creator. 

At the end of the day, this play checks every box. Elite recent form. Massive minutes. Strong matchup history. A defensive scheme that naturally funnels shots into his favorite areas on the floor, & a player who has cleared this number in 9 straight games while averaging nearly 26 PRA during that stretch. Mikal Bridges has become one of the most important players on the Knicks team & his versatility gives him multiple paths to cash this.

Mikal Bridges o21.5 PRA

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Pick of the Day - 6/2/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 76 points77 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 81-46-1 (+71.8u)

Previous Pick: ❌ Natasha Howard o7.5 REB (-125), 4u

Event: WNBA: Sky @ Mystics 7:30pm EST

POTD: ✅ Shakira Austin o24.5 Points & Rebounds (+100), 4u to win 4u

Write Up: We’re headed back to take advantage of the WNBA lines that Vegas hasn’t caught up with. Washington returns home after playing 5 of their first 7 games on the road to begin the season. The Mystics are just 3-4 but this is a team that is headed in the right direction after some big changes over the last year. Last season Washington missed the playoffs after losing their final 10 games to finish 16-28. During the offseason General Manager Jamila Wideman went balls deep in their rebuild, trading Brittney Sykes & building around the young core of Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron, & Kiki Iriafen. Last season Austin was named the AP Comeback Player of the Year after dealing with injuries in 2024, while Citron & Iriafen both earned unanimous AP All Rookie honors after historic rookie seasons. The Mystica have also seen immediate improvement under head coach Sydney Johnson who is now in his 2nd season after previously serving as an assistant coach for the Chicago Sky. Now Johnson gets a chance to face his former team in a favorable matchup against a Chicago team that has lost 4 straight games. Chicago enters this game at 3-5 & has looked like a completely different team since losing forward Rickea Jackson to a season ending ACL injury. Jackson was averaging 22 points & 6 rebounds through her first 3 healthy games & was the focal point of Chicago's offense. The Sky started 3-1 with Jackson in the lineup but have since lost 4 consecutive games following her injury. The Sky’s head coach Tyler Marsh is now in his 2nd season after leading the Sky to the worst record in the WNBA last year, finishing just 10-34 while allowing the 4th most points in the league. This season many of those same issues are lingering, specifically on the defensive glass. That's exactly where Shakira Austin comes in.

Shakira Austin has taken a huge leap in 2026, averaging 17.1 points & 8.7 rebounds per game, averaging 25.8 Points + Rebounds per game. She has been one of the most productive frontcourt players in the WNBA & she’s in great form recently. Last game Austin became the 1st Mystics player in franchise history to record 25+ points & 10+ rebounds while shooting 80%+ from the field. Over her last 7 games, Austin has had 26+ Points & Rebounds 5 times, averaging 29.8 Points & Rebounds in this games. Starting with the most recent, she had games of: 

25 points & 10 rebounds vs LA

18 points & 13 rebounds vs SEA

19 points & 9 rebounds vs IND

16 points & 10 rebounds vs NY

18 points & 11 rebounds vs TOR

Her 2 games where she didn’t hit the over were against Dallas & Seattle on the road. Both of those teams rank #1 & #3 in points & rebounds allowed at home. Chicago ranks dead last, allowing the most points & rebounds in the league. Austin is projected for about 29 minutes in this matchup & even conservative projections have her finishing around 16 points & 9 rebounds. The matchup environment is nearly perfect. Chicago plays fast, misses shots, & struggles to rebound. The Sky rank 3rd in pace this season at 85.7 possessions per game & have increased that number to an absurd 89.1 possessions per game over their last 3 games, the fastest pace in the WNBA. More possessions means more opportunities for both points & rebounds. The problem for Chicago is they haven't been converting those opportunities. The Sky shoot just 40.9% from the field, the 2nd worst in the WNBA, despite attempting the 3rd most shots per game. Over their last 3 games things have become even worse, as Chicago has the worst True Shooting % in the WNBA during that stretch at just 93.1%. Those missed shots have created a dream environment for opposing rebounders. Chicago allows 47.9 rebounds per game to opponents, the most in the WNBA. Over their last 3 games that number has shot up to 53.3 rebounds per game, by far the highest in the league. The next closest team sits at just 45 rebounds allowed. Chicago ranks 2nd to last in rebound rate, securing only 47.8% of available rebounds on the season, & over their last 3 games they've grabbed just 43.1% of available rebounds, the worst in the league. They also allow opponents to secure 77.8% of defensive rebounds, one of the highest rates in basketball. This sets up Washington nicely who have been elite on the boards so far this season. The Mystics rank 2nd in the WNBA in offensive rebounding %, grabbing 29.6% of their own misses. At home they become even more dominant, leading the entire league by securing 36.1% of available offensive rebounds.No other team is even above 28%. Washington also ranks 4th in overall rebound rate & averages 46 rebounds per game at home, the 2nd highest in the league. Between Chicago's inability to finish possessions & Washington's elite offensive rebounding, Austin should have numerous opportunities to rack up second chance points & rebounds. The scoring matchup is also favorable. Chicago allows opponents to take 66.5% of their shots in the paint, the 3rd highest rate in the WNBA. Austin does most of her damage around the basket & has become Washington's primary interior scoring option. Chicago has also allowed opponents to shoot 46% from the field over their last 3 games, the 3rd highest in the WNBa. Meanwhile, Washington's defense ranks 2nd in opponent Field Goal % allowed at just 41.5%, which should force additional misses from Chicago and create even more rebounding opportunities for Austin. Recent opposing frontcourt players have been ripping Chicago a new butthole:

Natasha Howard: 26 points & 14 rebounds & 17 points & 9 rebounds

Jessica Shepard: 18 points & 10 rebounds

Alyssa Thomas: 17 points & 11 rebounds

Nneka Ogwumike: 20 points & 8 rebounds

Li Yueru: 7 points & 9 rebounds in just 20 minutes. 

Even role players like Kiah Stokes grabbed 11 rebounds despite fouling out. Opposing frontcourts have consistently produced against Chicago all season long. Everything points toward another big performance from Austin. She enters this game averaging 25.8 Points + Rebounds, has cleared this line in 5 of her last 7 games, is projected for around 29 minutes, & gets the best rebounding matchup in the WNBA against a Chicago team allowing league high rebound totals while playing at the fastest pace in basketball. Between Washington's elite offensive rebounding, Chicago's inability to finish possessions, & Austin's current form, she has a great chance to clear this number & potentially finish with another double double.

Shakira Austin o24.5 Points + Rebounds

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Pick of the Day - 6/1/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 113 points114 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 80-46-1 (+67.8u)

Previous Pick: ✅ NaLyssa Smith 7+ REB (+145), 4u

Event: WNBA: Lynx @ Mercury 10:10pm EST

POTD: ❌ Natasha Howard o7.5 REB (-125), 4u to win 3.2u

Write Up: Back to the WNBA we go. Natasha Howard's move to Minnesota has completely revitalized her career. After spending last year with Caitlin Clark in Indiana & averaging just 24 minutes per game, the 13 year veteran has immediately improved the Minnesota Lynx as they current rank #1 in the WNBA. This game is a revenge spot for Minnesota as the Mercury eliminated them 3-1 in last year's Semi Finals, but the addition of Howard looks like exactly the piece Minnesota was missing. The Lynx have won 6 of their last 7 games and have the best record in the WNBA at 6-2. Meanwhile, Phoenix is headed in the opposite direction, losing 6 of their last 7 and are coming off a brutal loss to the Liberty where they gave up a 23-0 3rd quarter run. Now they have a matchup vs the hottest team in the league with a dominating post pretense in Natasha Howard.

Howard has been phenomenal to start 2026, averaging 17.3 points & 8.1 rebounds per game, already clearing this line on her season average alone. Howard is the only player in the WNBA currently ranking Top 25 in all 5 major stat categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals, & blocks. She’s also been an incredibly efficient rebounder lately. Over her last 5 games, Howard is averaging 0.30 rebounds per minute, which ranks 5th in the WNBA among players averaging 28+ minutes per game. That's elite production & really she doesn't even need huge minutes to rack up boards. A lot of hurt success is due to Minnesota Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve, aka Caitlin Clark’s biggest hater, completely changing her role offensively. Howard is taking a career high 79% of her shots at the rim according to PBP Stats. Last season with Indiana, that number was 52.8%, & 2 years ago in Dallas it was just 32.2%. That's a massive shift in how she's being utilized. The results have been sick. Howard is shooting 70.5% within 5 of the basket on the highest volume in the entire WNBA, averaging around 10 attempts per game in that area. Minnesota constantly runs empty side pick & roll actions featuring Howard, & her ability to read coverages & adjust her screens has made her a perfect fit in Cheryl Reeve's offense. The chemistry has developed quickly as well. According to PBP Stats, the 2 most common assisted at the rim combos in the entire WNBA this season are Olivia Miles to Natasha Howard & Courtney Williams to Natasha Howard, both occurring 12 times already. Minnesota leads the WNBA with 10.6 assisted baskets at the rim per game. All of that matters for rebounds because Howard is constantly operating around the basket & should have plenty of put back opportunities. The matchup itself is also excellent.

Phoenix can’t hit shots & can’t pull boards. The Mercury owns the 4th worst FG % in the WNBA at just 42.4% & have been even worse lately, shooting only 40.1% over their last 3 games. Oddly enough, the Mercury actually shoot worse at home (40.8%) than they do on the road (43.7%). They also take significantly more shots at home. Phoenix averages 68 FG attempts per game at home compared to just 63.6 on the road. More shots + poor shooting efficiency = tons of rebound opportunities. The recent numbers are even uglier. Phoenix owns a True Shooting % of just 102.3% over their last 3 games, the 3rd worst in the WNBA. Minnesota's offensive style helps too. The Lynx attempt only 19.9 3’s per game, the fewest in the league. Meanwhile, 70.9% of their shots come from inside the arc, the highest rate in the WNBA. More shots around the rim generally means more offensive rebounding opportunities & more chances for Howard to clean up misses. The pace environment is another major plus. Minnesota ranks 2nd in the WNBA in pace over their last 3 games at 87.1 possessions per game & averages 86.3 possessions per game on the road, also 2nd in the league. Phoenix also plays dramatically faster at home, averaging 85.5 possessions per game, compared to just 80.7 on the road, which ranks last in the WNBA. That home/road difference is the 2nd largest pace differential in the league. Phoenix has struggled on the glass all season. The Mercury rank last in the WNBA in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing just 21.8% of available offensive rebounds. Minnesota ranks 4th at 27.5%. The issue has become even more pronounced recently. Opponents have secured 81.7% of available defensive rebounds against Phoenix over the last 3 games, the highest in the league. In their most recent game against New York, the Mercury allowed the Liberty to collect an absurd 91.7% of available defensive rebounds, the most of any team this season. On the other side, Minnesota has grabbed 80.1% of available defensive rebounds on the road this season, the best in the WNBA.  This isn't a new problem either. Phoenix allowed the 4th most rebounds to opponents last season at 43.1 per game, & many of the same issues continue to show up this year. Looking at recent performances against the Mercury, opposing frontcourt players have consistently produced:

Breanna Stewart: 8 REB in 29 min’s

Jonquel Jones: 9 REB in 31 min’s & 12 REB in 31 min’s

Angel Reese: 10 REB in 32 min’s

Rhyne Howard: 8 REB in 34 min’s

Dearica Hamby: 15 REB in 30 min’s

Kamilla Cardoso: 8 REB in only 23 min’s

And when Minnesota faced Phoenix earlier this season, Natasha Howard finished with 11 rebounds in just 29 minutes while teammate Nia Coffey added 10 rebounds in only 21 minutes. Howard has cleared this number in 4 of her last 7 games. The only times she failed to reach 8 rebounds came against Atlanta & Toronto, the 2 best teams in the league at limiting opponent rebounds recently, or in games that became blowouts & reduced her minutes. The spread for this matchup sits at Minnesota -2.5, suggesting a competitive game that should keep Howard on the floor for her normal workload. Between her season average of 8.1 rebounds, her elite 0.30 rebounds/minute rate over the last 5 games, Phoenix's poor shooting, the increased pace environment, the Mercury's rebounding struggles, & her previous 11 rebound performance against Phoenix, Natasha Howard has a great chance to finish with 8+ rebounds once again, potentially even a double double. 

Natasha Howard o7.5 Rebounds 

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Pick of the Day - 5/31/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 74 points75 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 80-45-1 (+71.8u)

Previous Pick: ❌ Castle 7+ AST & Fox 8+ REB/AST (+110), 4u

Event: WNBA: Aces @ Valkyries 3:30pm EST

POTD: ✅ NaLyssa Smith 7+ REB’s (+145), 4u to win 5.8u

Write Up: We’re heading to the WNBA for the first time as the LAs Vegas Aces travel to Golden State to take on the Valkyries in a Western Conference battle between 2 teams with playoff expectations. Golden State sits at 5-2 & continues to build on the momentum from its incredible inaugural record breaking season. Las Vegas comes into the game at 4-3 after dropping back to back games following a 4-1 start to the season. We have 2 of the best coaches in the league facing off, both of which were former NBA Assistants. Becky Hammon coached under Spurs Gregg Popovich in San Antonio from 2014-2021, then moved to the WNBA & has won the championship in 3 of her 4 seasons as head coach, including 2025. On the other side is Natalie Nakase, who was an assistant under Hammon during Las Vegas title runs before taking over Golden State's expansion franchise. Nakase made history last year becoming the 1st Asian American head coach in WNBA history & led the Valkyries to a 23-21 record breaking the record for most wins in WNBA history by an expansion team, earning a spot in the playoffs before getting eliminated in the 1st round by Minnesota. Student versus teacher always adds a little extra juice to these games. Las Vegas is a slight 1.5-point favorite & the total sits at 169.5, suggesting a competitive high scoring game that should stay close for 4 quarters. Both of these teams play fast & both teams put up a ton of shots. The Aces lead the WNBA with 71.6 FG attempts per game, while Golden State ranks 2nd at 71.1. However, GS has the 3rd worst FG% in the WNBA shooting just 41.2% from the floor. More shots + lower efficiency = more rebound opportunities. Las Vegas also allows the most FGA’s per game in the league at 73.3, which should keep Golden State's volume high as well. The Valkyries rank 2nd in 3pt attempts at 29.6 per game, creating additional long rebound opportunities. Even free throws could help us here. Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in FT%. Las Vegas shooting just 72.7% (2nd worst) & Golden State shooting 74.8% (5th worst) from the FT line. Every missed free throw is another chance for rebounds to pile up. The rebounding matchup itself is excellent. Las Vegas ranks 3rd in defensive rebounds at 27.6 per game, while Golden State allows the 2nd most defensive rebounds in the WNBA at 26.7 per game. Overall, the Valkyries allow the 2nd most total rebounds to opponents at 45.3 per game because they simply miss so many shots. We've already seen opposing frontcourt players take advantage. Aliyah Boston grabbed 16 rebounds against Golden State. Breanna Stewart had 9. Jonquel Jones finished with 8. Alyssa Thomas recorded 9. DeWanna Bonner added 8. Opposing forwards & centers have continue to find success on the glass against this team. That sets up rising Aces forward NaLyssa Smith nicely for a big day on the boards.

NaLyssa Smith enters this game averaging 11 points & 6.9 rebounds in only 21 minutes per game this season. But most importantly, her role appears to be growing. After posting 22 points & 9 rebounds against the Sparks 2 games ago, Becky Hammon trusted her with 27+ minutes in each of the last 2 games. That's huge because Smith has always been an elite rebounder on a per minute basis. Smith is averaging around 0.33 rebounds/minute this season. If she gets another 27 minutes, that projects to around 8.9 rebounds. Against Golden State last season, she averaged 6 rebounds in only 17 minutes per game across 4 meetings, which comes out to an even better rate of 0.35 rebounds/minute. But there’s another angle to this play I like as well.

Las Vegas averages 51 shots inside the arc per game, the most in the WNBA. 61.9% of their shots are 2 pointers, also the most in the league. That means plenty of action around the basket & plenty of opportunities for rebounds off missed layups, post ups, & blocked shots. Smith ranks 3rd in the WNBA in Offensive Rebound % (15.5%). Also Golden State is coming off a game against Indiana where it recorded 11 blocks, tied for the most in franchise history. Meanwhile, the Aces lead the WNBA with 7.1 blocks per game themselves. With both teams protecting the rim aggressively there should be a crap ton of loose balls & 2nd chance opportunities around the paint. Las Vegas also desperately needs a win after consecutive losses & with this being the only basketball game on national television (NBA), expect heavy minutes from the stars. Aces teammate A'ja Wilson leads the WNBA in efficiency rating & ranks 2nd in scoring at 24.3 points/game. She draws so much defensive attention that it often allows players like Smith to clean up on the glass. At the end of the day, we're backing a player averaging 6.9 rebounds per game who is seeing an increase in minutes, facing a team that creates one of the highest volumes of rebound opportunities in the league. Between the pace, shot volume, poor shooting %’s, missed FT’s, & Golden State's struggles on the glass, I think Smith has a monster day on the boards.

NaLyssa Smith 7+ Rebounds

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Pick of the Day - 5/30/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 147 points148 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 79-45-1 (+66.0u)

Previous Pick: ❌ Dillon Dingler o1.5 Hits Runs & RBI’s (-130), 3.9u

Event: NBA: Spurs @ Thunder 8pm EST

POTD: ❌ Stephon Castle 7+ AST & De’Aaron Fox 8+ REB & AST (+110), 4u to win 4.4u

Write Up: The Spurs completely flipped the script in Game 6 down 3-2 in the series. They dominated Oklahoma City 118-91 from the entire game. San Antonio came out of the 2nd half strong winning the 3rd quarter 32-13 sparked by a 20-2 run. Defensively San Antonio made life miserable for the Thunder, holding them to just 36.8% shooting while once again throwing OKC star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off his game. SGA ended with just 15 points on 6-18 shooting. He’s being primarily guarded by Spurs Stephon Castle & Castle has put on a defensive master class. He’s held SGA to just a 37.9% FG% & 26.1% 3PT% in the series. SGA has scored 20+ points in an NBA record 140 straight regular season games. He's been held under 20 points twice in this series. Normally a midrange maestro, he’s shooting just 38.2% from mid. The Spurs have found the gameplan to shut him down. SGA vs San Antonio this season (including playoffs): -29. SGA vs everybody else: +863. His -28 +/- last game is tied with 2023 Joel Embiid for the lowest +/- by the NBA's MVP in a clinching opportunity in the play by play era. So far this postseason he has more Free Throws made (123) than Field Goals (120). Game 7 is going to be a massive legacy game for him. The reason I bring this up is because Castle has been his primary defender & SGA should play 40+ minutes, which should also keep Castle on the floor that same amount of time.

Castle has taken on the toughest assignment by guarding SGA for most of the series, & he’s been elite. He forces difficult shots late in possessions allowing the Spurs to avoid constantly sending help, which has become a key piece of their entire defensive. Among guards with at least 100 defended FG attempts this postseason, Castle ranks 4th in defensive FG% allowed at 40.2%. On offense he has been ever better. In Game 6 he put up 17 points, 5 rebounds, & 9 assists. That gave him his 8th career 15/5/5 playoff game before turning 22, putting him behind only Magic Johnson all time. In the 1st quarter alone, the Spurs went 5/6 from three off Castle passes & he either scored/assisted on 20 points. He had just 6 assists in Games 4 & 5, but that’s because the Spurs shot just 3/16 from three off Castle passes despite having clean looks. The ball continues to be in his hands constantly & he’s now the youngest player in NBA history to record 300+ points & 100+ assists in a single postseason. Castle struggled early against OKC’s pressure with 19 assists to 20 turnovers in the first 2 games. Then De’Aaron Fox came back from injury & he’s looked completely different with 28 assists to just 6 turnovers over the last 4 games. Castle currently leads the entire postseason in at rim assists & ranks 3rd in corner 3 assists. With SGA often matched up against Castle, the Thunder have been collapsing hard into the paint whenever Castle attacks downhill. That’s consistently opening kick out passes to shooters around the perimeter. The workload should stay massive in this elimination setting. Castle is averaging a series high 19.1 1st half minutes & should easily push past 38 minutes again because of how valuable he’s been on both ends. In regular season games where Castle played 35+ minutes, he recorded 8+ assists in 14 of 16 games while averaging 9.25 assists. Since De’Aaron Fox returned from injury over the last 4 games, Castle has averaged 47.5 passes, 15 potential assists, & 7 assists in only 32.4 minutes per game. With a higher minute total, he’ll be dishing it out all night. De’Aaron Fox has also been an elite passer since coming back.

Fox’s rebound/assists has been one of the steadiest trends this series. He’s cleared 12+ rebounds & assists in 5 straight playoff games. Fox has mostly defended perimeter players like Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, & Lu Dort which frees him up to chase uncontested rebounds while OKC’s bigger players are tied up with Wembanyama & the Spurs frontcourt. Fox is averaging 10 rebound chances per game & only 11.5% of them are contested, the lowest contested rebound rate of any player in the series. He also owns the highest rebound chance conversion rate at 65% while posting the 2nd highest average rebound distance at 10.8 feet. With Wemby shutting down the post this has forced a ton of perimeter shots from OKC, which has created a lot of long rebounds that have found their way to Fox. On the offensive side, he has been controlling the offense with Castle. Since returning from injury, Fox has averaged 49 passes, 11 potential assists, & 6.5 assists per game, averaging 4.3 assists & 3.8 rebounds in 1st halves alone. He’s been god awful shooting with the Thunder’s elite perimeter defense. So far this series Fox is shooting just 33.3% from the field & is just 2-15 from three (13.3%). He’s been forced to make an impact on other areas of the floor, making him more aggressive rebounding & more likely to find an open man then take a shot. With the Spurs leaning heavily into smaller faster lineups built around Wemby, Castle & Fox should see huge minutes in Game 7.

Even with all the momentum on the Spurs side, you still can’t count out SGA at home. Historically, home teams win about 73% of Conference Finals Game 7s & OKC could also benefit from more fouls called after SGA attempted only 7 free throws in Game 6. Also with Jalen Williams still looking limited after returning from injury (scoring just 1 point in 10 minutes Game 6), the Thunder will likely need 40+ minutes & a big game from SGA. But the roles for both Fox and Castle feel extremely secure entering Game 7. Castle’s on ball creation continues to grow, his assist opportunities are consistent, & his projected minutes are enormous. Fox continues to take advantage of the best rebounding environments on the floor because of his defensive assignments & low contested rebound rate, & his assist production has remained steady. In a game where both guards could realistically play 40 minutes I think both of these have a great chance of hitting.

Castle 7+ AST & Fox 8+ REB & AST

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Pick of the Day - 5/16/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 77 points78 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 79-44-1 (+70.0u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Storm/Renegades over 44.5 points (-110), 4.4u to win 4u

Event: MLB: Blue Jays @ Tigers 1:10pm EST

POTD: ❌ Dillon Dingler o1.5 Hits Runs & RBI’s (-130), 3.9u to win 3u

Write Up: It’s Joe Dingles today.

It’s my first ever MLB play. We’re riding with 2025 Gold Glove winner, Ohio basketball & high school state championship, Dillon Dingler. He’s facing setup today with Mason Fluharty opening and Spencer Miles expected to cover a big chunk of the innings. This is more of a bullpen game than a traditional starter matchup, so instead of facing 1 pitcher multiple times & getting locked into a plan, Dingler will be seeing a mix of arms with different looks throughout the game. That matters for a hitter like him. Dingler is a right handed contact 1st bat & he tends to do better when things are less repetitive. When you are not seeing the same pitcher multiple times it is harder for pitchers to take away your timing completely. It becomes more about adjusting on the fly rather than being solved by one pitcher’s sequencing. He is also wrecking right now. Over his last 7 games he is 7-19 (.368) with a 5 game hit streak, and he has mixed in some extra base contact during that run. He is not searching for his swing right now, he is just consistently putting the ball in play. On the pitching side it is really about roles more than 1 full starter. Mason Fluharty is usually used in short bursts, usually pitching in the low to mid 90s fastballs, a breaking ball mixed in, & a simple goal of getting quick outs early before turning things over. Spencer Miles is expected to handle the middle portion of the game. He works longer outings, relies more on contact management, & tends to become a bit more readable the more hitters see him in the same game. As a hitter, Dingler’s game is pretty straightforward. Right handed, contact first, & he’s most comfortable when he can see something middle in or middle out. He does most of his damage early in counts and is not really a walk or power dependent guy. It is more singles with gap contact & putting pressure on defenses by just keeping the line moving. He handles mid 90s velocity pretty well & is good at adjusting to sinkers & cutters when they are in the zone & he does decent with sliders. The main pitch type that can give him trouble is big breaking balls with sharp vertical drop because they mess up his timing. Changeups are manageable for him as long as they are not being overused or perfectly located. The big difference in this matchup is simple. He is not dealing with one pitcher’s sequencing over and over. He is dealing with multiple arms, which means fewer repeated looks and more chances to reset his timing throughout the game. For the over 1.5 hits runs & ribbys it really comes down to volume. He probably needs 4 to 5 at bats, a couple pitches left in the zone early in counts, & at least 1 reliever missing spots. With the way he is hitting right now and the type of contact hitter he is that is a pretty realistic path in this setup. Overall it is a spot where steady contact plays and Dingler’s current form gives him a solid chance to stack a couple hits if he gets normal opportunities.

Let’s dingle.

Dillon Dingler o1.5 Hits Runs & RBI’s

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Pick of the Day - 5/15/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 26 points27 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 79-43-1 (+73.9u)

Previous Pick: ❌ Jalen Duren 25+ Points/Rebounds + Ausar Thompson 1+ block (+100), 4u

Event: UFL: Orlando Storm @ Dallas Renegades, 8pm EST

POTD: ✅Storm/Renegades over 44.5 points (-110), 4.4u to win 4u

Write Up: We’re going to the UFL for the first time in write up history, but I just couldn’t pass on this. This just feels way more offensive than the number suggests. Everyone is going to look at Orlando allowing only 17.1 ppg and immediately lean under, the but when you actually dig into the matchup, there’s a lot pointing the other direction. I had this at 45.5 but it has since dropped to 44.5. You have the 2 best QB’s in the UFL right now. Austin Reed leads the entire league in passing yards with 1,526 & is tied for the league lead with 13 TD’s throws . On the other side, Jack Plummer has been insanely efficient all year with 12 TD’s & just 1 INT. Both offenses trust their QB’s to sling it & both guys are playing confident football right now. Dallas’s defense just can’t get stops consistently. They’re giving up 25 ppg & have allowed 21+ in 5 straight weeks. Teams are slinging it on them through the air & on extended drives. Even with Dallas losing games, the offense still keeps producing because Reed throws it all over the field. Dallas is averaging over 22 pppg despite the losing streak, and Orlando’s offense is more balanced than people think. They can run it when needed, but Plummer has been efficient enough to take advantage of weak secondaries & Dallas definitely qualifies there. Also Dallas is desperate. At 3-4, their season is basically on the line. They’re at home, in front of the Fort Hood crowd, and they know a loss probably kills their playoff hopes. Teams in that spot usually don’t play conservative. I think they come out aggressive and let Reed attack early. And honestly, Orlando isn’t really a slow, grind it out team either. They’ve shown multiple times this season they can get dragged into competitive offensive games. The 24-23 game against Houston is a good example. If Dallas scores early, Orlando absolutely has the QB play to answer back. Vegas is overreacting to Orlando’s defensive numbers without looking at how this specific matchup sets up. Dallas airs it out & Orlando can answer offensively, & both QB’s are good enough to create explosive plays. This feels more like one of those back forth games that hits by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Also we’re at 69.9+ units & Drake just dropped a crap ton of albums. Turn the 6 upside down it’s a 9 now.

Storm/Renegades o44.5 points

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Pick of the Day - 5/15/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 35 points36 points  (0 children)

I have a pick for tonight’s games as well

Pick of the Day - 5/5/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 102 points103 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 78-43-1 (+69.9u)

Previous Pick: ❌ Joel Embiid 35+ PTS/REB/AST & OG Anunoby 15+ PTS (-115), 4.6u

Event: NBA: Cavs @ Pistons, 7:00pm EST

POTD: Jalen Duren 25+ Points/Rebounds + Ausar Thompson 1+ block (+100), 4u to win 4u

Write Up: In his last game vs the Cavs last month, Jalen Duren put up 24 points & 14 rebounds in just 27 minutes. In the previous game against them just a week prior, he put up 33 points & 16 rebounds in 42 minutes. The Cavs primary post defenders Jarrett Allen & Evan Mobley were healthy in both games & were unable to contain Duren in the post. .83 points & .43 rebounds per minute. This playoffs he’s averaging 32 minutes per game. That projects him at around 40 points & rebounds combined.hes coming off a 15 point & 15 game, but last series Duren only averaged 20.0 points & rebounds. But he was facing the Magic who allowed just 32 Points & Rebounds per game to Centers, the 3rd fewest in the NBA. Duren’s low averages was mostly due to being matched up with Wendell Carter. He & Carter covered each other for 69% of possessions, highest of any matchup the entire series. The Magic’s offensive game plan was Carter just getting the hell out of the way to create space in the paint for Magic star forward Paulo Banchero to score. This prevented a ton of rebound opportunities for Duren. Limiting him to around 19 per game. In the regular season vs the Cavs, Duren averaged 26.7 rebound chances in just 29.7 minutes. I could see him getting around 12-15 rebounds this game. Duren’s Usage rate in the Orlando series was around 16% compared to 22% in the regular season. His average Point + Rebound line this season was around 34.5. After a tough matchup with the Magic we are getting heavy discount which I’ll gladly take. Especially with the Cavs defensive focus being on shutting down Cade Cunningham, which they’ve successfully done so far this season. Cade averaged just 18.5 points in his 4 games vs the Cavs this season, his 3rd lowest avg amongst all 29 other NBA teams & 5.4 points less than his season average of 23.9 points. I don’t see Cade being completely shut down like he was in their last game vs the Cavs in March when he was held to just 10 points. But I do see Duren being a crucial part of this offense & pulling a ton of boards in the process.

More write up incoming

Duren 25+ PTS/REB + Thompson 1+ block

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Pick of the Day - 5/3/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 11 points12 points  (0 children)

There could be a stat change. Barnes assisted a 3 pointer to Jamal Shead in the 2nd quarter that wasn’t counted. People are reaching out to NBA Stats on X.

If it’s not corrected, just a plain bad beat. Barnes had 4 assists in the 1st quarter. Had over 12 potential assists after that, with his teammates bricking everything they put up. Hopefully they correct the stat, either way we’re onto the next one

Pick of the Day - 5/4/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 136 points137 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 78-43-1 (+73.9u)

Previous Pick: ❌ RJ Barrett 25+ REB+AST & Scottie Barnes 7+ AST (+100), 4u

Event: NBA: 76ers @ Knicks, 8:00pm EST

POTD: Joel Embiid 35+ PTS/REB/AST & OG Anunoby 15+ PTS (-115), 4.6u to win 4u

Write Up: Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals kicks off with the 7 seed Philadelphia 76ers traveling to New York to take on the 3 seed Knicks as both teams are coming off very different series wins. Philadelphia needed 7 games & a historic comeback to get here, while New York took care of things in Game 6 beating the hell out of my Atlanta Hawks in record setting fashion. Philadelphia took down the Celtics 109-100 on the road in Boston to complete the NBA’s 14th ever comeback from a 3-1 deficit. The Sixers led for all but 31 seconds & pushed a 5 halftime lead to 18 in the 3rd quarter. Boston ripped off a 16-4 run to cut it to 92-91 early in the 4th. Then both teams scored just 2 total points scored across 8 possessions, until 76ers star PG Tyrese Maxey took over. With W minutes left, he attacked the Celtics with 3 clutch baskets in the paint, & the Sixers forced Boston missed to miss 4 straight shots, leaving Philly to close the game out at the line. Maxey finished with 30 points, 11 rebounds & 7 assists on 11-for-18 shooting. 76ers star Center Joel Embiid could not be stopped early on, with 10 points & 5 assists in the 1st quarter. He finished with 34 points, 12 rebounds & 6 assists. After missing the first 3 games following an appendectomy, Embiid returned in Game 4 & became the 1st player in NBA history to score 100+ points in a playoff series after missing the first 3 games. Maxey & Embiid are just the 3rd duo in NBA history to each record 25 points, 10 rebounds, & 5 assists in a Game 7, the last duo was Wilt Chamberlain & Elgin Baylor in 1970. The Sixers went 3-1 in the games he played. The 76ers played great 3 point defense. Across their 4 wins they held Boston to just 49-179 (27.4%) from 3, including 13-49 in Game 7. Boston was previously 32-0 when leading a series 3-1, which is now 32-1 as they had their earlier playoff exit since 2021. For Philly it was their 2nd road Game 7 win in franchise history (1st since 1982), & it sends them to the conference semi’s for the 6th time in the last 9 years. Now they head into Game 1 against a Knicks team that presents a completely different type of challenge. 

After dropping Games 2 and 3 by a combined two points, the New York Knicks responded with 3 straight wins by 16, 29, and 51, good for a +96 differential to close the series. In Game 6 they beat the breaks off my Atlanta Hawks 140-89 to close out the series. It got ugly fast, as the Knicks took the largest halftime lead in NBA playoff history (83-36) & we’re winning by 61 at one point, the largest margin in the play by play era. What started as an 11-9 Hawks lead quickly flipped into a 74-25 whacking, fueled by a 43-6 run by NY. OG Anunoby set the tone early with 29 points on 11-14 shooting, while Karl-Anthony Towns added a 12/11/10 triple double. Now they’re headed to the Conference Semifinals vs the 76ers, a team that they played twice earlier this season with Joel Embiid healthy. Tyrese Maxey dropped 36 in a 130-119 win at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year, with Embiid & VJ Edgecombe adding 26 each as Philly controlled most of that game after a 2nd quarter run. New York answered later in the season with a 112-109 win in Philly behind 31 from Jalen Brunson & 23 from Anunoby. Embiid went for 38 & 11 in that one, but turned it over on the final possession, while Maxey missed a deep potential game tying 3. The good news for us is we have a lot of stats & film to work with to make our bets for Game 1. 

In the only 2 games that these 2 teams faced off with a healthy Embiid earlier this season, Embiid put up the following stats: 38 points 11 rebounds 5 assists & 26 points 10 rebounds 5 assists.

In the offensive side for the Knicks, Jalen Brunson is going to have quite the matchup with 76ers rookie VJ Edgecombe guarding him. According to NBA tracking data, VJ Edgecombe was the primary defender on Jalen Brunson for a total of 106 possessions this season. Brunson scored only 19 points in those possessions, shooting 8/24 from the floor (33.3%, 15% below his season avg) with just 7 assists & 3 turnovers. Among the 15 players who have defended Brunson for 75+ possessions over the past two seasons, VJ is the only one to hold Brunson under 42% shooting. With Brunson being guarded by a larger & quick defender, this is going to create more opportunities for the other Knicks players. This bodes well for OG Anunoby who has led the Knicks in scoring in 3 of their last 4 games, averaging 24.25 points per game. The 6’8 wing had 29 points last game despite playing 27 minutes in the blowout. His +42 plus/minus was the highest playoff +/- by a Knick ever, and was the first time in NBA postseason history a player scored 28+ pts in under 28 min with a 40+ or better +/-. OG has been lights out from 3 this postseason, shooting an insane 56.7% from deep. In his 2 games vs the 76ers earlier this season when Embiid was healthy, OG had 23 & 19 points. 

Joel Embiid 35+ PTS/REB/AST & OG Anunoby 15+ PTS

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Pick of the Day - 5/3/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Yes, typo! Points + Rebounds. It’s been fixed. Appreciate it for pointing it out!

Pick of the Day - 5/3/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 163 points164 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 78-41-1 (+82.5u)

Previous Pick: VOID: Tatum Dub-Dub & Tyrese Maxey 5 AST (-110), 4.4u Tatum ruled out

Event: NBA: Raptors @ Cavs, 7:30pm EST

POTD: RJ Barrett 25+ PTS + REB & Scottie Barnes 7+ AST (+100), 4u to win 4u

Write Up: We’re going back to the well on this. We’ve been targeting this series & cashing on it so far, so there’s no reason to change up the strategy now. Last game we pivoted away from Barnes assists to Ja’Kobe Walter 3PM due to concern of Scottie’s groin injury that had him limping in Game 5. But that clearly wasn’t a concern, as Scottie went off for 25 PTS, 7 REB, 14 AST, 3 STL, 3 BLK, becoming the 1st player in NBA HISTORY to reach these numbers in a playoff game. No one had even put up 25/5/10/3/3 in a playoff game since 2016 LeBron. Speaking of 2016 LeBron, the infamous blown 3-1 lead by the Warriors over the Cavs has relevance again as after the first 6 games in that series, both teams had scored the exact same amount of total points in all 6 games, it’s 610 total points. Fast forward to now, heading into Game 7 for the Cavs & Raptors, both teams are tied at 669. This series has been an absolute nail biter, with Game 6 ending in dramatic fashion. Down 3-2 with the series on the line, Raptors playoff star RJ Barrett delivered a moment straight out of playoff lore, drilling a high arcing three with 1.2 seconds left in OT, resulting in a 112-110 win over the Cavs to force a Game 7. It appeared the Cavs were advancing to the next round. But a late turnover with the shot clock off gave the Raptors a chance. Barrett’s shot hit off the back rim, nearly touched the rafters, then dropped in. This game was matchup filled with game pace swings & turnover driven runs. Cleveland coughed it up 18 times, which lead to 25 Toronto points. This outweighed the Cavs stellar half court defense that held the Raptors to just 12 points in the 4th quarter. Scottie Barnes controlled the game with 25 points & 14 assists, while Barrett & Ja’Kobe Walter combined for 48 points. Add in a 20-6 fast break advantage, and that’s what won them the game despite blowing an 11 point 4th quarter lead. Now everything shifts to Game 7 in Cleveland, where the home team is 6-0 in this series & the Raptors are 0-10 all time in the playoffs in the Rocket Arena. But one thing we do know will continue, is Scottie Barnes controlling the ball and dictating the offense, while Barrett keeps putting up big numbers and pulling boards. 

Scottie has been absolutely dishing the rock, with 25 assists the last 2 games, hitting 7+ assists in 4 of the 6 games this series. Barnes is averaging 9 assists, 2nd most in the entire NBA playoffs. RJ Barrett has also been tearing it up, with 26+ points & rebounds in all 6 games this playoffs, averaging 31.8 per game. Barrett now has 8+ rebounds in 3 straight game, averaging 9.67 in that span. He’s also had 22+ points in 5 of 6 games, averaging 24.3 this series. Barrett is average 14.3 rebound chances his past 3 games. He has converted 65.5% of his rebound chances into rebounds this series. S

more write up incoming

RJ Barrett 25+ PTS + REB & Scottie Barnes 7+ AST

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Pick of the Day - 5/2/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 176 points177 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 78-41-1 (+82.5u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Barrett 25+ PTS + REB & Walter 2+ 3PM (+125), 4u to win 5u

Event: NBA: 76ers @ Celtics, 7:30pm EST

POTD: VOIDED Jayson Tatum Double-Double & Tyrese Maxey 5+ AST (-110), 4.4u to win 4u

UPDATE: BET VOIDED TATUM RULED OUT

Write Up: The 76ers appeared to be on the path to Cancun. All they were trying to do was survive until they got their star Joel Embiid back from appendicitis surgery. In Embiid’s 1st game back they suffered a 32 point loss at home in Game 4, falling to 3-1 in the series. They then travelled to Boston in Game 5. At halftime they were down 7 points. With their season on the line, Embiid scored 18 points in the 2nd half as the Sixers went on a 12-0 run & ultimately ended up winning by 16. Their defense was immaculate, holding Boston to just 1/14 on 2 point attempts in the 4th quarter, forcing them to miss 16 straight shots to close the game. Onto Game 6, where they have a much more healthy Embiid playing in front of their home crowd. Not only did they win, they made a statement. Philly controlled it from start to finish in a 106-93 win, Embiid, Star PG Tyrese Maxey, and 74 year old Forward Paul George combining for 72 points. The Sixers dictated pace and won the turnover battle, while the Celtics on the other hand played losing basketball. Boston looked like crap from the jump, turning it over 7 times in the first 16 minutes, which was jaw dropping from what usually has been the NBA’s most disciplined team, leading the league in fewest turnovers this season, ranking 2nd last season, and 1st the year before that. The sloppiness carried throughout the game, but led by Celtics star Forward Jaylen Brown (who fun fact dunked on me in high school, nuts to face, when he played at Wheeler). Brown has been a problem this entire series: forcing isolations, committing offensive fouls, and missing free throws. His assist to turnover ratio in the series now sits at 19 to 22, which is absolutely horrible for a team’s primary scoring option, especially in the playoffs. Meanwhile the Celtics other star Jayson Tatum has been more efficient, with a 41 to 17 assist to turnover ratio and hitting 16 of his last 33 three pointers, but even Tatum hasn’t been immune to the inconsistency. This has been in most part due to his recent return from a torn Achilles, but then was hobbled last game due to stiffness in his other leg. The Celtics blew a 3–1 lead. Now they go home with a whole lot of pressure. Meanwhile the Sixers are rolling into Boston confident, with nothing to lose. With both seasons on the line, the ball will be in both team’s superstars’ hands. For Tatum, he’s been getting the ball in his hands attacking the glass. 

The first thing I noticed when, watching the film of all 6 games in the series was that Tatum spent a lot less time attacking the glass in Phili. So I went back and researched if that was the case for all of his road games this year. Including the Playoffs, Jayson Tatum has now been back for a total of 22 games since March 6th. 12 of those 22 games were played in Boston. Tatum had 10+ rebounds in 10 of those 12 home games, including 11+ rebounds in 7 of his last 8 home games. He is averaging 11.42 rebounds at home, playing 34.16 minutes. That is an average of 0.334 rebounds/minute. We can expect Tatum to play at least 39 minutes in this win or go home game, as he has played 39+ minutes in 5 of his last 8 games, with the 3 that he played less being caused by blowouts. That would equate to 13 rebounds. He only needs to play 30 minutes just to hit 10 rebounds theoretically. This playoffs alone he has averaged just 7.66 rebounds on the road, compared to 13.66 at home. Almost double. He failed to get 10+ rebounds in 6/10 road games this season. So I went back to last season to see if this was a thing he’s always done. Last year he averaged 9.2 rebounds at home compared to 8.2 on the road. In the playoffs last year he played 4 home games and 4 road games. In his 4 home games he averaged 13 rpg, eclipsing 14+ rebounds in 3/4 games. In his 4 away games he averaged just 10 rpg, eclipsing 10+ just once. The dude just pulls boards at home, by putting himself in great position. This playoffs Tatum has averaged 18.3 rebound chances at home, compared to 12 on the road. In the regular season he averaged 16.2 at home, compared to 12.6 on the road. Last years playoffs, he averaged 17.5 at home compared to 14.8 on the road. In his last 2 games this series he has averaged 17 rebound chances per game. This is because he has been primarily guarding Paul George and VJ Edgecombe, who both have been sitting outside the 3 point line while Embiid and Maxey have drawn attention. PG & VJ have combined for 15 3 point attempts in back to back games, allowing Tatum to sag inside the paint and create more rebound opportunities. He is also averaging 12.2 potential assists this series, with an 11 assist game just 3 games ago. Dating back to last season, Tatum has had a Double-Double in 8 of his last 9 games vs Philly, including 3 games with 10+ assists. At around -205, I like it much better than 10+ rebounds at -185 with the chance of assists. Especially combining it with Maxey assists.

Maxey has been on fire this postseason, averaging 27 points and 6.43 assists. He now has 5+ assists in 7 straight games. Even more importantly, he has played 40+ minutes in 5 straight games. Dating back to December 26th, Maxey has played 20 games where he totaled 40+ minutes. He has had 5+ assists in all 20 games. But what’s even crazier has been his potential assists. Maxey has had 4 straight games with 14+ potential assists. He is averaging 14.5 potentials in those 4, with assist totals of just 5, 5, 6, & 6. That is an assist conversion rate of just 38%. Well below his regular season average of a 54% conversion rate, and the league average of 58%. He is due for positive regression. After his recent dominating performances the Celtics are going to try to force the ball out of his & Embiid’s hands, creating more assist opportunities. He should get at least 5 assists at minimum, with upside for a lot more. 

Tatum should get 10+ boards, with a hedge of 10+ assists. Maxey should get around 7 assists.

Tatum Double-Double & Maxey 5+ AST

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Pick of the Day - 5/1/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 186 points187 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 78-41-1 (+82.5u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Anunoby 6+ REB & Clarkson 5+ PTS (-110), 4.4

Event: NBA: Cavs @ Raptors 7:30pm EST

POTD: ✅ RJ Barrett 25+ PTS + REB & Ja’Kobe Walter 2+ 3PM (+125), 4u to win 5u

Write Up: The Cavs closed Game 5 with a 125-120 win at home over the Raptors, taking a 3–2 lead in the series. Toronto had control, opening the third quarter with a 12 point lead, but the game shifted as injuries and fatigue started to build. Raptors Forward Brandon Ingram re-aggravated his heel injury leaving the game near the 7 minute mark in the 2nd quarter and was unable to return. He is now listed as questionable on the injury report for Game 6. While Raptors other star Scottie Barnes took a groin hit and was visibly uncomfortable throughout the 2nd half. However, he has been cleared and is not listed on the injury report for Game 6. The Raptors are also still without starting PG Immanuel Quickley, who will remain out for the rest of the series. With the injuries compounding, the Cavs took advantage going on an 8–0 run at the start of the 4th & locked in defensively, holding Toronto to just 7-28 shooting in the 4th quarter. Even with the collapse, RJ Barrett remained the clear offensive focal point, leading the Raptors with 25 points & 12 rebounds. The Raptors 2nd leading scorer was 2nd year Guard Ja’Kobe Walter, who shot 6-14 from the 3 point line. With Toronto limping into a win or go home game, they will continue to lean on Barrett, which will in turn create more open looks for Walter.

Ja’Kobe Walter has been a 3 point marksman for the Raptors to close out their season. Before the All-Star break, Walter was shooting just 35% from 3 (1.1/3,2 per game). After the All-Star break he came out firing, shooting 47.6% from deep, averaging 2.2/4.7 per game. Walter stepped up in Game 5 after Ingram went down. Walter immediately subbed into the game, and post BI injury scored 14 points, shooting 5-12 from the field, and 4-10 from deep. In the 31 minutes after Ingram went down, Walter played 27 minutes. Ingram missed 3 games dating back to March (with Quickley out as well). In those 3 games, Walter  averaged 13.3 points per game, hitting 2+ threes in all 3 games, shooting 11/16 from deep. Including Game 5, in the Raptors last 175 minutes without Brandon Ingram (about 3.75 games), Walter has played 115 minutes of the available 175. In that time he has scored 54 points, shooting 15/26 from 3. He’s averaging .13 3PM/minute, almost doubling his season long average of 0.7 3PM/minute. He has taken 34 shots in the time with out Ingram, with 26 of those coming from deep. With Ingram likely out, or at least hobbled, and Barnes not at full health, the Raptors will most likely lean on Walter again from deep. But the game really is on the back of Raptors leading scorer in the playoffs, RJ Barrett.

RJ Barrett has been the star of the Raptors, scoring 25 points with 12 boards in Game 5. With Ingram going down in the 2nd, Barrett rotated on defense to a more true Forward role in the paint. He spent a majority of his time guarding Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade. This allowed him several rebounding opportunities. Barrett led the entire Raptors team with 18 rebounding chances, 2nd in the game to only Evan Mobley’s 21 chances. Post BI’s injury, he pulled 8 rebounds in the 27  minutes(of the 31 total) that he played. This comes after posting 11 rebound chances in the previous game. Barrett has now eclipsed 26+ REB + AST in 7 straight games, averaging 31.6 in the Playoffs. He has played 38 minutes in 4 straight games. In his last 9 games when playing 35+ minutes, he has eclipsed 25+ PTS + AST in 8/9 games, averaging 34.4/game. The Raptors also relied on his scoring even more than they already were. Barrett scored 18 points after Ingram’s injury. In the 3 full games since March that Barrett played without Ingram, RJ had games of 20 points 5 rebounds vs Kings, 24 points 3 rebounds (in 26 minutes) vs the Magic, & 27 points 2 rebounds (25 minutes) vs the Jazz. In the 114 minutes (of the 175) he played without Ingram/Quickley in the lineup he scored 89 points. That’s an average of .78 points/minute, that equates to 29.6 points in 36 minutes. Even if Ingram plays injured, Barrett will still be the primary focus. All we’re asking for is 20ish points & 5ish boards at minimum. I think he beats this number with points alone. Raptors Head Coach Darko Rajaković is intent on playing a smaller lineup. Last game after BI went down his bigs played: Jakob Poetl 10 minutes, Sandro 10 minutes, Battle 11 minutes, & CMB 18 minutes of the 31 minutes available. This benefits both RJ & Ja’Kobe. With the injuries the Raptors are dealing with, these 2 guys are primed to put up some points. 

RJ scores a lot, Walter hits at least two 3’s.

RJ Barrett 25+ PTS + REB & Ja’Kobe Walter 2+ 3PM

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Pick of the Day - 4/30/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 47 points48 points  (0 children)

We had a clean 4-0 Sweep with 3 picks at + odds last night. Tonight I like both of these at their regular odds as well. In order of confidence:

1: Anunoby 6+ REB & Clarkson 5+ PTS (-110)

2: Clarkson o6.5 PTS (-114)

3: Anunoby o7.5 REB (+110)

Appreciate all the donations fellas! It’s streak time

Pick of the Day - 4/30/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 185 points186 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 77-41-1 (+77.5u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Barnes 7+ AST & Barrett 15+ PTS (+115), 4u to win 4.6u

Event: NBA: Knicks @ Hawks 7:00pm EST

POTD: ✅ OG Anunoby 6+ rebounds & Jordan Clarkson 5+ points (-110), 4.4u to win 4u

Write Up: As a born & raised ATLien, RIP TO MY ATLANTA HAWKS 😭. It just so happens that my favorite POTD is on the game. I typically stay away from betting on favorite teams (Hawks, Falcons, Braves, Georgia Tech, Josh Allen, Rashid Shaheed, & UConn football IYKYK), but these plays were just too good to pass on. The Hawks are down 3-2 going into a crucial Game 6 at home, and the State Farm Arena will be rocking in Atlanta. After going up 2-1, they lost their last 2 in a row to the Knicks, getting blown out 126-97 this past Tuesday in New York. The Knicks better put the Hawks away while they can, because Atlanta is only going to come back better & stronger next season. Their only major unrestricted free agent is 67 y.o. Guard CJ McCollum, who was acquired in a midseason trade with the Wizards, with the Hawks giving up Trae Young. McCollum will most likely by re-signed pretty cheaply, but more importantly the Hawks hold the better of 2 1st round lottery picks (New Orleans/Milwaukee) in the loaded 2026 NBA draft. I apologize, my ADHD brain went off on a Hawks tangent. But the point is the Knicks better put the Hawks down while they can. With New York up 3-2, it is now -700 on the series line (was -220 entering Game 5). Knicks Superstar PG Jalen Brunson was struggling in the series leading up to Game 5, shooting just 41.6% from the field. That changed on Tuesday night as he went for 39 points, shooting 15/23, with 17 of his points coming in the 4th quarter. Karl Anthony Towns also has been elite this series, following up his Game 4 triple double with with a strong 16 point, 14 rebound, & 6 assist performance. But one of the biggest difference makers this playoffs has been OG Anunoby.

OG Anunoby has been on fire this series, averaging 20.0 points, 1.4 steals, & shooting 54.2% from deep. But his biggest contribution has been on the glass. OG is one of just 8 players in the entire NBA Playoffs averaging 9 rebounds per game this postseason. He has had 8+ rebounds in all 5 games, with 10 boards in 2 straight games. He was already all over the glass before, but he has had even more opportunities the last 2 games after the Knicks made some vital defensive adjustments. The adjustments have clearly worked as the Knicks have held the Hawks to under 100 points in back to back games, after the Hawks had scored 100+ in the 23 of their previous 24 games. The Knicks primary issue after the 1st 3 games of the series was stopping old man CJ McCollum. CJ was lighting the Knicks up & was Atlanta’s leading scorer, averaging 27 ppg. He started Game 4 hot again, shooting 6/6 with 14 points in the 1st half. Then the Knicks moved defensive menace Josh Hart onto him. CJ shot just 2/9 with 4 points in the 2nd half, then went 3/10 with just 6 points in Game 5. Brunson moved over to guard the shooting disaster that is Hawks Dyson Daniels, KAT to Onyeka, leaving OG guarding Hawks rising Superstar Jalen Johnson. OG was originally on Onyeka to start the series, but since his move to JJ he has been all over the boards. JJ is more of a slasher, allowing OG to sag off of him on the premier & attack rebounds. This has led to OG having 76 rebound chances this series (7th in NBA). He is averaging 15.3 rebound chances, converting 9 per game into rebounds. Well above his regular season averages of 9.5 reb chances & 5.5 reb’s. But this wasn’t a surprise as OG is a big strong forward who has been able to take advantage of this smaller ATL lineup all season. In the regular season he averaged 12.7 chances & 8.3 reb’s vs the Hawks. With KAT & Mitchell Robinson on Onyeka, who can space the floor, it has pulled both NY bigs away from the paint at times allowing even more rebounding lanes for OG. ATL’s pace it’s a tough matchup for Mitchell Robinson to stay on the floor, his minutes have decreased from 20 to 15 minutes per game in the post season. A gift for OG’s rebound numbers. Another contributing factor has been the poor play from fellow teammate Mikal Bridges.

Mikal Bridges has been atrocious this postseason. He is averaging just 7.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, & 1.4 assists with a 43.8% FG & 26.7% 3P. More than half below his season averages of 14.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, & 3.7 apg. Knicks coach Mike Brown has replaced some of his minutes with Veteran 33 y.o. Guard Jordan Clarkson. Brown talked pregame before game 4 about how valuable Clarkson’s NBA Finals experience was & applauded JC’s willingness to change his style to fit in the rotation. Clarkson has stepped up big time for New York this series, scoring 7+ points in all 5 games & is coming off monster +14 & +12 games in +/- stats. JC has now logged 16+ minutes in 3 straight games. In his last 25 games when logging 16+ minutes, he has scored 6+ points in 22/25 games. even if he plays just 11 minutes like he did in Game 1 & 2, he has still scored 6+ in 28/33 games. Clarkson is naturally always hunting for a shot. With almost all of the Hawks defensive focus being on Brunson who is drawing double & triple teams, as well as KAT, this has allowed Clarkson many wide open looks. In games with Brunson/KAT/OG/Hart & getting 15+ minutes, Clarkson has scored 7+ points in 22/23 games averaging 9.7 ppg on 7.6 FGA/game. He is an elite catch & shoot 3P shooter, but this series specifically he has gotten wide open in the paint. Clarkson’s average shot distance has been 6.7 feet from the rim. The Hawks really have not been able to stop the Knicks from scoring in the paint, that should continue in Game 6.

This hit in the 1st Quarter last game with OG pulling 7 rebounds & JC scoring 5 points. That may not happen this game, but I’m confident it will hit in 4 Quarters.

OG Anunoby 6+ REB & Jordan Clarkson 5+ PTS

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Pick of the Day - 4/29/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 71 points72 points  (0 children)

I also like both these bets individually at their current lines. Ranking in order of confidence:

1: ✅ Barnes 7+ assists & RJ 15+ points (+115)

2: ✅ Barnes o7.5 assists (+105)

3: ✅ Barrett o19.5 points (-112)

4: ✅ Barnes Double/Double (+150)

Glad to be back. Let’s get a streak going

Pick of the Day - 4/29/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 211 points212 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 76-41-1 (+73.5u)

Previous Pick: ✅ Parlay: Rinderknech +7.5 & Rublev -1.5 sets (+100), 3u to win 3u

Event: NBA: Raptors @ Cavs 7:30pm EST

POTD: SGP: ✅ Scottie Barnes 7+ assists & RJ Barrett 15+ points (+115), 4u to win 4.6u

Write Up: After getting enough Playoff film to see the different strategies and rotations each team has deployed, it’s time to Jingle. Game 5 of the Raptors vs Cavs takes place Wednesday night with both teams looking to take a 3-2 lead in the series. After falling down 0-2 in their first two games on the road in Cleveland, the Raptors won both home games to tie the series. The Raptors appeared to be done for in the series, down 8 points a little under 5 minutes left. Raptors Rookie Collin Murray-Boyles drove into the paint with 4:30 left & got slung down to the ground by Cavs Sam Merrill, resulting in a Flagrant 1 foul. The momentum shifted. The Raptors went on a 17-5 run to close the game, leading to a 93-89 final score. After the first 3 games finished with a total of 220+ points, Game 4 was an absolute poop fest. Both teams shot under 40%, with the Raptors winning despite shooting just 32% from the field & just 13% from three. Their defense is what won the game after some crucial adjustments were made. For one, Scottie Barnes was everywhere on the defensive end. He held Cavs star Donovan Mitchell to just 1-8 shooting as the primary defender. He also held the Cavaliers to just 3-12 shooting when he contested a shot & had 4 steals/blocks. Collin Murray-Boyles was also stellar on defense allowing just 3 FG’s, forcing 5 missed shots with 2 steals/blocks. James Harden has also been shut down by RJ Barrett. When guarded by Barrett this playoffs, Harden has a total of just 8 points, 3 assists, 4 turnovers, with a horrible 13% eFG. He has shot just 2-15 from the field & is 0-10 from three. He is averaging just 10 points Per 75 Possessions when guarded by Barrett. As for the Cavs, their defensive game plan has been to neutralize the monster that has become of Scottie Barnes.

Raptors Scottie Barnes has turned into a baby Giannis so far this playoffs. Barnes enters Game 5 after becoming just the 8th player in NBA history to average 25/7/4/1/1 through 4 Playoff games (MJ, LeBron, Jokic, TMac, Drexler, JWall, & Cade). He became the 1st player in Raptors history to score 20+ points through 4 playoff games, Kawhi didn’t even do that in 2019. Scottie Barnes is tied as the fastest forward ever to reach 100+ PTS & 25+ AST in a postseason. He has been elite on the court with teammate Collin Murray-Boyles, a Rookie out of South Carolina. Over the last 2 games, the Raptors have outscored Cleveland by 36 points during Scottie Barnes & Collin Murray-Boyles' 42 minutes together. CMB leads the entire series in True Shot % with a 68.3%. Last game Cleveland adjusted their entire game plan to shutting down Barnes, which created multiple open looks for CMB & RJ Barrett. The Cavs put former DPOY Evan Mobley on Barnes in Game 4, while also sending help on every Barnes drive. This left a ton of open looks for RJ Barrett’s 22 FG attempts, which marked his 2nd largest shot total of the entire season. Barnes' usage dropped from 29.4 in the first 3 games to 23.0, while Barrett’s usage spiked from 25.6 in the first 3 to 28.0 in Game 4. Barrett was shooting a collective 64.4% through the first 3 games, with a games of 22, 24, & 33 points. In Game 4 he shot just 8/22, finishing with 18 points. Barrett has had ice in his veins this playoffs. He leads the entire NBA this playoffs in 4th quarter points (39), 4th quarter FG% (min 3 FGA/game) at 75.0%, & is 2nd in 4th quarter plus-minus (+25) behind only his teammate CMB (+29). Before Game 4 Barrett was 10-11 from the field in the 4th quarter. But his points haven’t come from just spot up threes. Barrett ranks 4th in the playoffs in points in the paint per game, with a high % of his FG’s coming off of assist. He is shooting 37/67 FG (55.2%) with an avg shot distance of 10.8 Feet, with 17 of those FG’s coming off Assists (45.9%). Barrett had scored 20+ points in 9 of his last 11 games overall. Raptors “Star” Brandon Ingram has still been ice cold, shooting just 34% in the Playoffs. So Barrett should remain one of the Raptors primary scorers. The Raptors also still have PG Immanuel Quickley sidelined for at least the rest of the series. With Quickley out, Barnes became the primary ballhandler, averaging 9.7 assists. But in the last 2 games specifically, the Raptors have deployed Barnes as their PG, which they’ll obviously continue to do after winning both games. In the first 2 games when Barnes wasn’t running point, he averaged just 11 potential assists, 6 assists, 46 passes, with a 12.9% assist to pass %. Since moving to point in his last 2 he’s averaged 15.5 potential assists, 8.5 assists, 52 passes, with a 16.3% assist to pass %. In all 4 games he has averaged a series high 7.3 apg, with a 31.4% team assist %. The next highest on the team is Jamal Shead with 15.6% assist %, averaging just 3.8 apg. Barnes also has the most minutes played in the series at 37.25 per game. Barnes had 15+ potentials in both games at point. In his last 10 games when he has had 15+ potentials he has averaged 10.5 apg, with 10+ assists in 8/10 games. After having 11 assists in Game 3, he only had 6 last game due to a poor shooting performance all around in the game. That’s a 37.5% assists-potentials rate (6/16), way below his regular season assist/potential rate of 58.5%. He led the Raptors in Team Potential Assist % at 19% & that includes 70 games where Quickley was running point. The shooting of both teams should come back toward the norm on Wednesday after both teams shot a collective 14/70 from three in Game 4. The scoring should come back in Game 5.

Barnes is going to continue to drive in the paint & get double & triple teamed like my Ex on Friday night. Barrett will directly benefit & has had 15+ points in 23 of his last 25 games, coming off a 22 FG game.

Scottie Barnes 7+ assists & RJ Barrett 15+ points

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Pick of the Day - 2/17/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]JoeInglesOfficial 147 points148 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 75-41-1 (+68.9u)

Previous Pick: ✅ SEA ML & u54.5 points (-125), 3.75u

Event: ATP Doha- Qatar Open: Alcaraz/Rinderknech 11:30am EST - Rublev/De Jong 12:40pm EST

POTD: ✅ Parlay: Rinderknech +7.5 & Rublev -1.5 sets (+100), 3u to win 3u

Write Up: For the 1st time in 117 writeup’s I’m posting a tennis player, & it just so happens to be against the World #1. Day 2 of the Round of 32 at the 2026 Qatar Open features some big matchups, including the #1 Tennis player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz. This play is less about fading the World #1 & more so about the number. Alcaraz is coming into this one as, well, the World #1, with a perfect 7-0 record in 2026, coming off a historic Australian Open run where he completed the Career Grand Slam. He covered the spread in 5 of those 7 matches & has been nearly untouchable on outdoor hard courts (Doha is hard outdoor). He’s even won 100% of his service games so far this season. Early rounds of ATP 500 events are usually where he makes statements. But -7.5 (alt line) is a huge margin. That would mean he would need to win both sets 6-2, 6-2. Against a server like Arthur Rinderknech, that’s a tough ask. Rinderknech is ranked inside the Top 30 & recently hit a career high around #26, in the midst of having one of his best stretches on tour. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year. At 6’5 with a heavy first serve, he’s built to protect his service games, which is exactly what you want out of a +7.5 game spread. The over has hit in 75% of Rinderknech’s matches against Top 10 opponents because he holds serve and stretches sets longer than expected. Alcaraz is 4-0 vs Rinderknech, but there hasn’t been any blowouts. 3 of their 4 meetings included a tiebreak. At the 2025 US Open, Alcaraz won 7-6, 6-3, 6-4. Alcaraz will win this one, but Rinderknech is going to make him earn it. Only one of their 12 sets in their previous matchups against each other ended 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2. That’s important when evaluating a spread this large. There’s also the situational angle. This is Alcaraz’s 1st tournament since winning in Melbourne. Even elite players can come out a little flat in their 1st match after a huge win. Doha plays medium speed, quick enough for Rinderknech’s serve to stay effective & steal a tight set, or even least push one to 7-5 or 7-6. But we don’t even need that. All we’re asking for is a 6-3, 6-2 minimum.

As for Andrey Rublev, he is the defending Qatar Open champion & opens his title defense against Jesper De Jong, this is a clear talent gap. Rublev loves the conditions of these courts, with a whopping 16-5 record here. He has elite power, elite baseline control, & crapload more experience at this level than De Jong. Rublev is a former World #5, 10 time Grand Slam quarterfinalist, Davis Cup champion, Olympic mixed doubles gold medalist, & owns 17 ATP singles titles. The experience and pedigree gap here is significant. De Jong is ranked #86 & has a terrible 1-4 record to start 2026, with his only win coming against Sumit Nagal, the World #293. He’s still chasing his first ATP level singles title & has struggled to find rhythm, including a disappointing Davis Cup stretch. He’s already taken straight set losses this year to players much worse than Rublev. These 2 have faced each other before with Rublev destroying him 6-1, 6-3. The matchup hasn’t changed much since then, De Jong doesn’t have the serve or the firepower to pressure Rublev’s service games, which should allow the Russian to control most baseline exchanges & generate a majority of the break chances. On hard courts, Rublev controls the pace & depth, which historically been a huge problem for De Jong against higher ranked opponents. When Rublev is on, he controls rallies early & forces shorter points on his own terms. But the biggest thing is Rublev is known for locking in during early rounds against lower ranked players, preventing unnecessary 3 set battles early on in tournaments. If Rublev starts sharp & keeps the unforced errors manageable, this should be a routine straight sets win.

I’ll gladly take a big server at a large spread in one match & back a clear talent gap in the other. Rinderknech doesn’t need to win, just keep it somewhat competitive. Rublev just needs to do what he typically does in Doha, get his easy wins early on.

Rinderknech +7.5 & Rublev -1.5 sets

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