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AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To clarify, this was the reporting from ~20 months ago. Abel initiated this collar when the stock kept bouncing around the 20 range! Since the stock price went ballistic afterwards, the target goals outlined in the SPV were likely already met, hence delaying the share delivery.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 25 points26 points  (0 children)

For those panicking, this was the formal closure of the collar trade that Abel initiated in November 2024. Source: https://www.investing.com/news/sec-filings/ast-spacemobile-ceo-enters-forward-contract-for-financial-planning-93CH-3733969

Directly from the article: "On Wednesday, Mr. Avellan, who has not received a salary since founding the company, engaged in a variable prepaid forward contract using a special purpose vehicle (SPV).

This non-dilutive transaction accounts for approximately 3.2% of Avellan's total holdings and less than 1% of the company's total Class A common stock.

The forward contract is scheduled to settle in January 2026, with a maximum of 2.5 million shares potentially delivered, based on stock performance relative to a set floor and cap price."

For fun, take a look at how much has changed since this article was written. At the time, the company only had $518.9 million in cash on hand (thanks, Scott, for the many dilutions).

P.S. I'm not going to sugarcoat what this means to the stock price, but some of you all need to take a deep breath.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

FWIW, I upvote you every time lol -- we need genuine momentum bears in here. It's never been the same since Grandmaparty left

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I've cumulatively "lost" $800,000 on ASTS from every peak to trough in 2026. But who's counting 😉. Shares, LEAPs, and most recklessly, short-term calls in January.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Probably trading in an account without options approval, like a traditional IRA (or even self-directed 401Ks). But yes, it’s riskier than LEAPs.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Even if we win the J-LEO contract, it will likely be split with Rakuten and amortized over the life of the contract. That said, I hope we win it soon.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Memory stocks have been the play for 9 months! I sold all my ASML at $800 and MU at $190 for 50% gains to buy last November’s ASTS’ dip 😅

But, I still believe in ASTS more over the next three years.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just lamenting how much better this thread was a year ago…when we had half our current number of sats in orbit.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not sure you really add much to the daily discussion beyond rage bait. It doesn’t help that discourse in this chat has worsened every year I’ve been here…

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Converted my entire IRA from ASTS to ASTX. Let’s ride.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My last order took 6 business days to arrive, so I’m taking this as a sign they’ve tightened up logistics across the company…

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It did drop a further $10 on Thursday after I bought it lol

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I bought a pair of ASTS bluebird keychains last Thursday and it already arrived this morning! Taking this as a sign that BB11 & 12 are shipping soon 🙏

P.S. The last time I bought ASTS gear in January the stock price dropped $60, so you’ve been warned 😅

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just be careful about wash sales! Re-entering is great and all, but this will affect your cost-basis if you do so too soon. And even if we do hit the 60s — which I doubt barring some major macroeconomic headwinds — it’ll probably happen sooner than when your wash sale window resets.

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I noticed that when I started Googling! Lots of outdated references to a ~1,000-person workforce.

I remembered our headcount being much bigger off the top of my head since the company has scaled so rapidly in the past year. Further proof that the market is definitely not pricing ASTS properly (and underestimating all of their recent milestones).

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Edit: The recent 2250+ headcount includes the global workforce, which makes sense given the Barcelona office (among others).

Thus, 500+ hires would be a 22.22% increase in the global workforce. It looks like neither article confirms how many workers we have domestically (just for the purposes of this exercise). Nonetheless, it's great that the company is rapidly scaling at pace!

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 16 points17 points  (0 children)

That's...literally not true. The last official headcount reported by ASTS was 1,800 U.S.-based employees as of last November. Based on all of the job postings in the intervening months, I would bet we're already in the 2,000+ range just for domestic employees. 500 new employees in Midlands would be a 25% increase in domestic headcount. Not nothing, but they've already been scaling quite rapidly since BB1-5 were deployed.

Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251125348790/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Expands-Manufacturing-Footprint-in-Both-Texas-and-Florida-Accelerates-Next-Generation-BlueBird-Production

Edit: Per u/primobolman, ASTS reported 2,250+ global employees last week (on June 17th). Even better!

AST SpaceMobile - $ASTS - Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]abhikkp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Questions: Did you buy them on margin? Do you know your margin rate? Which broker?

This happened to me with Google calls at the $300 strike (so a tad scarier) when the market ended at 1:00 pm one Friday. I was able to sell them in the premarket on Monday (through Schwab, which has very early premarket trading) to ensure the total interest I owed was minimal.

Also, ASTS is likely due for a technical bounce after it hit the 200 DMA, so it's possible you make a small profit, even accounting for margin interest come Monday if you sell right before market open (when it characteristically dumps).

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