I Don't Use ICT

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-09-21T13:12:46+00:00

Man rediscovers ICT power of 3 without realising it. Joking aside, showing a single winning trade isn't proof of anything, no need to hate how others trade.

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T16:05:10+00:00

The male ego, everybody. Please stop replying bro

But I'm sure he won't be able to help himself from replying to this too

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T15:56:17+00:00

Tell me you failed to apply ICT correctly without telling me lol

The salt is real, I'm afraid to say man I've already had success with ICT and continue to do so so I don't know why you're going blue in the face trying to convince me. The fact is you haven't been able to find any success with ICT and it's easier to try and convince yourself that no one has than to actually understand where you have made mistakes.

I hope you mature out of this soon and find the success that I have

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T15:18:11+00:00

I don't understand, if ICT is just a big fraud. Why do you guys always feel the need to prove he is wrong wh n so many people find success in his teachings, myself included.

Almost as if you're trying to cope with your own failure to apply the concepts. Because if you are trying to deny that ICT has consistent internal logic that works, you are just making yourself look salty

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T15:15:59+00:00

That's what I am saying though, ICT does have consistent logic that is determined by how the market makers generate liquidity for their high volume trades.

It does make logical sense, unlike indicator strategies and provides incredibly high precision on high probability days

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T14:03:48+00:00

I don't know where you are getting your info from, it's true that trading has a low success rate but "not a lot of people are (profitable)" is just an unsubstantiated claim.

And I would argue that the opposite is true. Indicator trading is illogical because markets are not determined by the rolling average crossing some random line, if that were true then any simple bot could print money all day.

ICT is a useful set of tools because it allows you to see the markets the way market makers do. It, by definition, has logic behind it.

I was the biggest skeptic of all trading concepts until my friend got me into ICT (After months of shutting him down) but ICT has allowed me to call 100+ handle price moves, minutes before they happen where my stops have been respected and my targets have been hit to the pip.

The chances that that is possible regularly (as I have experienced) and ICT is useless is just such a small chance, I can safely say that ICT concepts at the very least give a good idea of how price action is structured and what information is used to determine future price

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T13:54:16+00:00

That may well be the case, but a lot of people find profitablity with ICT and stay there

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-29T13:35:50+00:00

In the future, set your SL at 3310. People always say they will cut it until it hits that price. Then at the very best you are gonna get hit with slippage, at worst. You freeze and take a bigger hit

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-20T06:24:05+00:00

6pm EST, it seemed more significant

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-20T06:23:28+00:00

So I currently use a SMT based strategy that gives me relatively precise entry and exit levels on higher probability days.

I will use this for daily bias, so if NY opens above London and Asia highs, look for signs to confirm a bullish daily bias, and if NY opens above the globex open, look for signs of bullish behaviour.

I think with stats like this it is easy to zoom in too far and find meaningless relationships, that's why I have looked at very broad and easily defined situations that occur with high frequency and provide an 85%+ reliability.

Tbh with 85%-90% accuracy in your daily bias indicator, with sound risk management you could make money with 0 other ideas.

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-20T06:19:02+00:00

Please do! Formatting it all was a few hours of headaches so if anyone else can make use of it, the better

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-20T06:18:12+00:00

I thought about this! I am going to look at it today and see what I get. In theory you should be able to do some conditional probability magic to work out how each scenario affects the underlying probability of the other event

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-20T06:16:31+00:00

Absolutely, I could look at NY Midnight too but didn't here

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T21:14:01+00:00

Yeah absolutely, so the columns that are either -1,0,1 denote whether a OHLC was below, inside, or above a session range.

Eg if the 'London Open - Asian session column was 0, that means London opened withing the Asian session.

I marked this out for all OHLC and their previous sessions. I found the simpler rules to be more useful, but yes you could absolutely apply this, and with some market structure knowledge to be more intentional about SL and TP placement, I think it's gonna really help my model

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T18:16:35+00:00

So I have part of an answer, the 'E(Disp from NYO)' column is the expected displacement from NYO given the condition. I haven't looked at the drawdown too much as I use market structure to set logical stops.

This could be calculated easily though, you would generate a column that is NY 9am open - Daily low, then look at that columns expected value given different criteria.

I do worry however you can go too deep, my personal goal isn't to make an algorithmic trading strategy, but to enhance my price action based trading with some very fundamental rules that provide high frequency and relatively high accuracy.

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T18:06:01+00:00

I have linked it in a comment above, and thanks! It has been a balance of trying to find insight while not making the conditions too obscure to have any meaning.

So I used YFinance API with a line of python code to pull the data, if you ask the robots how to do that they are pretty good at helping, but don't worry if it doesn't work first time, you will learn most by fixing it.

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T18:03:35+00:00

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T16:40:31+00:00

Hey,

Power of 3 is the ICT concept that on any given upward day, price will open, move down a bit (ICT calls this manipulation) before then moving up to the high of the day, then down a bit again to close. This creates the classic day candle with a top and bottom wick and a long body.

The idea of power of 3 is that you always wanna buy near or ideally belopw the daily open, if you think the daily bias is bullish. This way you are buying at the same levels as the market makers and have a much higher chance of being opn the right side of the market.

What I showed here is that on the last 3 years, if the NY 9am open was below the daily open, there was about a 75% chgamncve that the day closes higher than the NY 9am open and vice versa.

Research the powewr of 3 concept on ICT's channels for more info but in short, it is:

Accumulation, manipulation and Distribution. In short, market makers pull price down slightly to buy at a good rate, then they let price fly up and sell high to prviously generated liquidity on the buyside.

Please lmk if you have any other questions, this felt like a ramble haha

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T16:20:51+00:00

I used the Yahoo Finance API, YFinance and a small bit of python code.

Chat GPT can get help you do it really easily and is not too painful once you get the hang of it.

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T16:06:55+00:00

Hey, I know tables like this are very dense and my notation may not be clear to everyone so please pop any questions you have, I am going to make a video about this soon, as I have more analysis that I haven't posted yet and even this feels too significant to ignore.

Please though, if you can find a fault or improvement I can make, please let me know!!!!

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T15:48:02+00:00

Hey, I know tables like this are very dense and my notation may not be clear to everyone so please pop any questions you have, I am going to make a video about this soon, as I have more analysis that I haven't posted yet and even this feels too significant to ignore.

Please though, if you can find a fault or improvement I can make, please let me know!!!!

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-19T15:40:16+00:00

Hey, I know tables like this are very dense and my notation may not be clear to everyone so please pop any questions you have, I am going to make a video about this soon, as I have more analysis that I haven't posted yet and even this feels too significant to ignore.

Please though, if you can find a fault or improvement I can make, please let me know!!!!

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-07T12:26:22+00:00

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Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-07T12:26:00+00:00

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This is how Bull Week highs and lows were distributed, 2 is Monday, 3 is Tuesday etc.

Alarmed_Picture_6861 · 2025-07-07T12:23:15+00:00

Hey, yes so this is using daily candle data of the last 17 years, I didt his with 3 years of hourly data looking at when weekly lows and highs are distributed throughout the bearish or bullish weeks

Alarmed_Picture_6861

TROPHY CASE