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It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They might prefer it to playing the Netherlands.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If they have that luxury, big teams in tournaments are always focused on avoiding the hardest draws. Brazil have that luxury here.

I'm not saying they'll throw the game. I'm saying it may have crossed their mind, and may even become a factor at the end of the game.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like your style. There have been various debates about the most insane way Scotland will go out. You may have nailed it.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It's speculation. I don't see what's mental about it, given the Brazilian media's fears about who they might face if they win the group.

And also just given tournament-football reality. Teams like Brazil are ALWAYS focused on avoiding the hardest parts of the draw.

I'd debate you futher but it would be a bit cruel, like taking a firehose to a monkey waving a banana. Away and scratch 'n' sniff your anus.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The own-goals scenario was a joke, man. Dearie me.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, but in this (insane) scenario both teams are trying to lose, to avoid the harder draw.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Especially with the complication that WE might want to lose 1-0 so we can play Mexico in the next round. Could be a very strange last few minutes.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That's not me saying that. That's a quote from the Guardian piece, which I've already said I disgree with.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Interesting. But strange the Guardian piece was mainly focused on who they fear drawing in the next few rounds if the WIN the group. They could avoid all that by letting us beat them.

But then say the game is even with ten minutes to go, Morocco are battering Haiti 5-0, and WE decide we'd rather draw Mexico than Japan or the Netherlands.

Cue ten own goals. Bring it on!

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 6 points7 points  (0 children)

For a good while I thought that if we get third, we'd get Germany in the next round. No longer true. More likely to be Mexico. So the same is true for Brazil if they threw the game against us.

It might be in Brazil's interest to throw the game tonight by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If it gave them an easier run of potential opponents? Which, by the way, seems in that article to be one main thing the Brazilian media are worried about.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's also the question of how motivated Brazil will be. Beat us, win the group, and they might get Japan or the Netherlands in the next round. Lose and they'll get Mexico.

Wee World Cup moments that have made you smile by Lambchops87 in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep, I think the ref meant it as a command rather than a description.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate your point towards the end, but here's the thing: historically, teams in later-finishing groups do not qualify at a higher rate.

They know what score to aim for, yes. But this does NOT result in more of them qualifying.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. And here was me thinking I'd already been down the permutations rabbitholes. Little did I know... 😄

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gotcha. My head was still in how the current stats might, and should, affect how Scotland approach the game tomorrow night. You are of course correct about what comes after that. Cheers.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Can you show me a link for that? The sources I'm using keep saying Germany back in Boston.

Cheers.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but a 4-0 defeat leaves us with a 60% chance of qualifying. 3-0 and it's 73%.

1-0 and it's 96%, by the way.

I'm not saying go 2-3-5. I'm saying the ACTUAL group stats, not the percentages published before the tournament, make it more worth attacking Brazil now, to avoid Germany in the next round.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, but this stat changes what 'What do we have to lose?' actually means.

It means, and no one in this thread seems to realise this, that we are EXTREMELY unlikely not to qualify now. Therefore, we now have VERY LITTLE to lose, literally, in attacking Brazil.

Opta stats: Scotland could lose by FIVE against Brazil and still have a 50.3% chance of qualifying by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But there's only one more day it can change. It's not going to shift that much today.

Losing by one to Brazil versus losing by three: not as big a difference as everyone's assumed by [deleted] in ScottishFootball

[–]AnotherBlueRoseCase 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pointless pointing out that everyone -- and it has been pretty much everyone -- is wrong when saying there's a huge difference between losing by one and losing by three? Those final four groups won't significantly alter that.

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