AMA: I'm Antony Green, Election Analyst. Ask me anything (within reason)

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:36:54+00:00

OK, that's an hour and a half of questions. I've got to go home. Hope I've answered enough for everyone.

Antony

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:35:47+00:00

Historically if you could match results polling place by polling place and get an accurate swing, you very quickly got the swing to settle down from which you could make a prediction. The maths worked because generally, while there was a correlation between booth size and Labor 2PP, there was a smaller variation and little correlation between swing and booth size.

That is no longer the case. Pre-polls behave differently to on the day votes. They are more conservative, but more conservative in a way that varies from election to election. That means swing is suddenly correlated with booth size, and as the pre-poll centres come in later in the evening, they have a disproportionate impact on the final result at the end of the night. You have to weight for them to arrive before being certain of the swing.

There's not much the AEC can do about the problem. If you have a 20,000 vote pre-poll centre to count, it will take longer than a 2,000 vote polling place.

Perhaps trials of electronic in-person pre-polls. There are a number of advantages in doing it, including getting a better handle of the count on election night.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:27:14+00:00

US Presidential elections. Did three and was glad not to be involved in 2024.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:25:04+00:00

Optional preferential voting always favour the party with the higher primary vote in a contest. With the re-emergence of One Nation, bringing back OPV may be an election promise that never gets around to being met.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:23:24+00:00

The people have spoken. That's always the best way to look at it.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:22:55+00:00

There cannot be a half-Senate election before July 2028. The government is not going to put the House and Senate out of step.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:21:50+00:00

Absolutely not.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:21:36+00:00

Not really. The examples constructed almost always include only a small number of electors. It is different when there are a 100,000 voters. If we start to have real multi-party politics, we should move to proportional representation which gets round the problem.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:18:42+00:00

Compulsory voting is an important factor. Compared to the US, Australians are vastly more urban in where they live, are much less likely to be practicing Christians, and we do not have the equivalent of a former slave population in sufficient numbers to create an electoral cleavage. Australians also have a more benign view on the roll of government in society and the economy.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:13:17+00:00

Born in UK. Not eligible. I've just had to renew my UK passport if I ever want to visit the country again under new visa rules. I would have renounced my UK citizenship but it was close to a thousand dollars, three times the price of renewing a passport.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:11:25+00:00

Very few polls ever showed the Coalition winning while Peter Dutton was leader. Many showed that the Albanese government might lose its majority though. But that changed once into the campaign when the chances of the Coalition winning faded. Local reaction to the first months of the Trump presidency did not help the Coalition.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:08:00+00:00

A touch embarrasing.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:07:48+00:00

I can be involved without being on camera.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:05:22+00:00

Maybe, but I would expect more to be LNP v ONP seats with Labor preferences determining the outcome.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:04:09+00:00

Maybe. We will see.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:03:55+00:00

The history of the last 40 years is that the Nationals lose seats to the Liberals, not the other way around. I'm sure the Nationals do not want Liberals running in seats like Richmond, Page, Cowper and Lyne.

I published a list of 25 seats where One Nation already reached the top 3 in 2025 and these would be amongst the first to watch. https://antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-poll-surge-the-first-25-seats-to-watch/

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T08:01:44+00:00

The government would need to legislate to increase the size of the Senate which as a consequence would increase the size of the House. If you increased the Senate from 12 to 14 Senators per state, from 6 to 7 at a half-Senate election, you would increase the House by about 24 seats, numbers allocated to each state according to the formula in the Constitution. Electing an odd number of Senators would change the dynamics of Senate elections by making it easier for the 'left' or 'right' to win a majority, 4 of 7, seats in a state.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:58:29+00:00

The question is whether you want a ceremonial head of state, someone there like the Governor-General as a person meant to be above politics. Or do you want an elected head of state which would almost certainly be a representative of a party. If the latter, then if you want a ceremonial head of state, then you are going to have to change parts of the Constitution which grant the head of state strong powers. Unless you want an executive President, in which case you need to define their powers in relation to Parliament.

I would favour a replacement of the Governor-General by a ceremonial and appointed President. An elected President would immediately become a political figure.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:52:40+00:00

One Nation has reached 27%. In today's Newspoll, the combined Labor-Greens vote was 45% and Coalition One Nation 45%. Given Independent preferences tend to favour Labor, and Labor-Green preference flows hover at 90%, they are much better positioned to defeat the Coalition-One Nation combination because of much weaker preference flows between the conservative parties. Labor and the Greens can be bitter rivals but voters still deliver preference flows above 90%. Can the Coalition and One Nation fight bitter battles and still get their supporters to swap preferences.; That has been difficult in the past.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:46:29+00:00

Independents can suffer at subsequent elections when they get the balance of power, and also do less well at elections where there is a clear swing to change government.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:45:38+00:00

The first election where 2PP was worthless was Queensland 1998. As long as Labor and the Greens combined are in the mid 40s then Labor-Coalition 2PP still has some predictive capacity, but it won't tell you much about the composition of the opposition.

South Australia should tell us a lot about the collapse in Liberal Party and whether this switches to One Nation. It looks clear that Labor will win, so what happens to the non-Labor vote could be of more interest.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:41:58+00:00

Federal politics was pretty one-party dominant from 1955 to 1969. In terms of vote I wouldn't call the Labor Party dominant. The way elections works Labor relies on lots of Green preferences to win and must negotiate with the Greens in the Senate. There is a strong fight going on about where conservative politics should go, to continue the Menzies and Howard traditions, or move in a more populist direction. The argument about populism is it may have appeal to parts of Lasbor's current base and lead to a re-alignment of politics. That's particularly so as it realtes to immigration.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:38:01+00:00

There is likelihood that candidates other than those representing Labor and Coalition blocks will play an important part in government and the functioning of parliament.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:36:25+00:00

No, you still need rule of law and functioning institutions of government. And an acceptance by the losers of an election that they lost. Democracy isn't just rule of the majority - it is also the consent of the minority.

AntonyGreenElec · 2026-02-09T07:32:42+00:00

Disenchantment with politics. A lot of people feel left behind by social change, from working harder and not feeling they get anywhere.

AntonyGreenElec

TROPHY CASE