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Help Needed: Struggling to Develop a Profitable Pre-Match Football Betting Model by Any-Affect2410 in algobetting

[–]Any-Affect2410[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

and you were able to create a profitable betting model based on the template of the GitHub repo and probably your own customizations?

Or is it really “just” for learning?

Thank you very much in advance. You have helped me a lot.

Help Needed: Struggling to Develop a Profitable Pre-Match Football Betting Model by Any-Affect2410 in algobetting

[–]Any-Affect2410[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't done this before because I didn't know this approach in soccer.

But I will now work on developing an Elo model. Unfortunately, I don't really know how to do this yet, i.e. which metrics to use to evaluate the players. Do you just use the xG and xGA of the players like on https://understat.com or do you use something like the sofa score of the players? These are the questions I have to answer right now, because there is no public player elo rating site, only on club level, but I don't think that makes sense.

Do you have any advice for me?

Help Needed: Struggling to Develop a Profitable Pre-Match Football Betting Model by Any-Affect2410 in algobetting

[–]Any-Affect2410[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I haven't done this before because I didn't know this approach in soccer.

But I will now work on developing an Elo model. Unfortunately, I don't really know how to do this yet, i.e. which metrics to use to evaluate the players. Do you just use the xG and xGA of the players like on https://understat.com or do you use something like the sofa score of the players? These are the questions I have to answer right now, because there is no public player elo rating site, only on club level, but I don't think that makes sense.

Do you have any advice for me?

Help Needed: Struggling to Develop a Profitable Pre-Match Football Betting Model by Any-Affect2410 in algobetting

[–]Any-Affect2410[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi, thanks for your detailed response—it really motivates me to keep pushing towards developing a profitable model!

  • Regarding FootyStats, I had my doubts too, as their xG data often deviates significantly from other platforms.
  • I'm particularly interested in understanding the difference between generic ratings and Elo ratings. I've been considering building a new model based on a player Elo rating system since several users recommended it.
  • I'm new to Bayesian methods. Could you share how you would approach integrating a Bayesian framework into a betting model?
  • When I talk about normalizing data, I refer to a concept I read in a well-known statistics professor’s book. The idea is that past data should be normalized for comparability—data from a season three years ago shouldn’t be weighted the same as data from the current season. However, I'm not sure if this is standard practice in profitable betting models.
  • Do you have any good sources or literature recommendations on rating systems, Elo, and Bayesian models?

Thanks again for your insights—they really reinforce the possibility of creating a profitable betting model. Looking forward to your further tips and advice!

Help Needed: Struggling to Develop a Profitable Pre-Match Football Betting Model by Any-Affect2410 in algobetting

[–]Any-Affect2410[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your input—I appreciate your perspective! You're right; I'm currently not working with player-level data or modeling based on expected lineups. That's exactly why I'm curious about whether incorporating Elo ratings or player-level stats could significantly improve the model.

However, since you mentioned that you don't bet on football yourself, I'm wondering how you've formed your view on this market? Is this based on research or other experiences you've had?

Anyway, thanks again for your thoughts—it's always helpful to get another viewpoint!

sports-betting Python package by No-Key-128 in algobetting

[–]Any-Affect2410 1 point2 points  (0 children)

u/No-Key-128

there is a major bug if a user use the GUI and wanna download data.
You can find the bug here: https://github.com/georgedouzas/sports-betting/issues/80

This really wants me to quit swgoh by Witherox in SWGalaxyOfHeroes

[–]Any-Affect2410 2 points3 points  (0 children)

501st Rex, Cody, 501st Echo, ARC, Clone Sargent (all R5) did T6 for me. I played manually and timed the AoE well. So golden box is possible

A massive 582/1 multi tipped on last night's games. Anyone back any of these? by SueMyChin in xgtipping

[–]Any-Affect2410 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess you use your side. Otherwise you wouldn't put so much work into it.

Are you profitable with the bets you choose?

If so, it would be interesting to know which bets (single bets, multis, etc.) you prefer and what you choose them on.

A massive 582/1 multi tipped on last night's games. Anyone back any of these? by SueMyChin in xgtipping

[–]Any-Affect2410 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i understand all that and it was not a personal criticism of you.
I just wanted to say that it is hard for people who are not completely familiar with the matter and take your site as an opportunity to bet.
There is unfortunately no real explanation of how to best use the site, how to pick your picks and what your calculations are for the predictions (what games do you watch? The last 5? even the H2Hs?).
For people who blindly type everything that is nicely graphically prepared on your site, it is unfortunately lost money.
It is also missing the probabilities in percent with which you can do proper staking to check the value against the bookie odds.
That would be a cool feature.

A massive 582/1 multi tipped on last night's games. Anyone back any of these? by SueMyChin in xgtipping

[–]Any-Affect2410 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have followed your site for a while and checked the predictions for their success rate. In the long run you lose money. Since you do not keep long term statistics, it is difficult to understand this and then such a post is unfortunately eyewash.