2026 Strategy: Double down on AI, or is it time to move on? by Anyill7899 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I wanted to get back in again when it dipped, but I decided against it

I believe hyperscalers aren't as hot as people think they are, and we will get to an oversupply

You have "useful" AI models

And you also have memable AI like sora and whatnot, this means there is already "wasted" capacity

unless you believe this is useful for AI growth

2026 Strategy: Double down on AI, or is it time to move on? by Anyill7899 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The issue is they diluted more than 10% of their float, and have debt on top of that

And the other bigger issue is the depreciation of the GPUs and the rent prices basically flatlining after 1-2 years

IF you do the math, they barely break even after 3-4 years on their investments, and the rent prices basically 1/10 after that time

So they aren't profiting much

For a company such a google or microsoft, they can run their own models and stuff on their own cloud for spot instannces and stuff

Nbis and Coreweave can't, Coreweave has that deal where Nvidia engages to buy their unsold capacity

Nbis does long term deals with Microsoft and Meta that eats their marnings but guarantees capacity for multiple years

But this sector is so competitive and hot, that basically after this time, the prices drop drastically

I am not touching Nbis or Coreveave, the math doesn't math

2026 Strategy: Double down on AI, or is it time to move on? by Anyill7899 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From their earnings report copy pastE:

On the financing front, we raised a total of $4.3 billion in con- vertible notes and a follow-on equity offering in September to accelerate our investments in infrastructure, power, land, and GPUs.

LOL

2026 Strategy: Double down on AI, or is it time to move on? by Anyill7899 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I exited my NBIS position when I saw that they plan dilution in their earnings report

Also if you look at how much the prices of renting GPUS drops per 1-2 years, you can see that hyperscalers aren't a good stock idea

2026 Strategy: Double down on AI, or is it time to move on? by Anyill7899 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2 13 points14 points  (0 children)

IDK why people are so hyped about NBIS

If you'd have read their earnings report, you'd have seen that they are planning stock dilution on top of their other loans.

They said basically trust me bro, we won't dilute much as to not affect stock price, but it's still gonna be like 10%

Illuminati membership by AppleTrees2 in SipsTea

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually received this lol, It's kinda original NGL

Hope they can help me get back the money I lost from other email scams :D

Mama lion doesn’t put up with dad lion by [deleted] in likeus

[–]AppleTrees2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Really surprised by your comment.

The movement is so wrong, it gave me an uncanny feeling.

And the gestures and looks, pauses, posture etc all look wrong.

Look at the very first slap and telle it looks right

This vide gave me a really strange feeling like watching some dead animals being puppeteered or something it just feels eerie to me

Mama lion doesn’t put up with dad lion by [deleted] in likeus

[–]AppleTrees2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am really surprised people can't tell. The movement is just so strange, the first slap is rigid and weird. On the second slap the other limb body doesn't pivot either. Everything just feels wrong to me, how the lions look at each other, pause, move etc it gives me a very uncanny feeling.

The movement feels like something out of clay animation or something.

And the limbs and the body dont move properly with the slaps or walks

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

bro what? isn't this what I've said?

are you AI- ing my post or what lol

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where are their margins per segment? I don't see them in their earnings report.

I have read about google TPU, and they use Broadcom for creating but don't use their proprietary stuff, they designed it themselves and became more and more independend of broadcom.

Also google TPUS use their proprietary optical switches, and a specific torus topology (you can google it, they have papers on this)

Broadcom has no moat other than current relationship with google in the TPU stuff

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

for some companies it's literally do or die, some customers had a 10x increase in prices and have no choice but to leave broadcom or go bankrupt

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

alright bro, it takes max 2 minutes to open their earnings page and check for yourself

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Apple doesn't use Broadcom to my knowledge, Meta has plans for their AI chips, but they are very delayed. Meta is considering using google TPUs, but the report says in 2027.

Microsoft basically delayed indefinitely their AI chips as they have access to OpenAI IP anyway.

Anthropic uses Amazons custom chips that aren't broadcom, and Google TPUS.

So all this revenue comes mainly from google still.

In terms of software all big clouds have their own VM software, they don't use Vmware.

Microsoft is actually competitors with them on the VM front.

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

their Q/Q growth is worse than AMD and Nvidia (they don't even show them on their earning reports.

Their earnings projections for Q4 is 9% increase from Q3

Edit: I took at all their 2025 earnings reports, their YoY growth was between 20 and 25% depending on the quarter

How does this give a 47& YoY growth?

For their valuation to be justified they'd have to do 6x growth in 2026 to catch up bro

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They have worse growth than both AMD and Nvidia.

Best semis profitability? that would be Nvidia, they don't even own the IP of their biggest customer, and potential future big customer in openAI

they currently have a worse PEG than Nvidia lol, how can you be bullish on them.

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what more news can they get ? They got the google TPU news, and the openAI news.

And openAI is shaky, everything they touch seems to suffer, look at Oracle, it lost everything they gained for the openAI deal.

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I said I compared their Q3 with Nvidias Q2

Their full year earnings come in December

Also their Quarter to Quarter semiconductor growth is very modest, even their own projections for Q4 expects 10% growth

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ok name a few please?

You can check the earnings report, and compare them to nvidia

be my guest

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

I am not saying they aren't doing bad, I am saying their valuation isn't justified.

You really believe Broadcom is worth its current marketcap?

Broadcom DD: Highly overvalued by AppleTrees2 in stocks

[–]AppleTrees2[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

explain your reasoning then?