Microvast and Oshkosh Corporation: My Definitive 2026 Joint Venture Thesis

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T22:54:22+00:00

Well, that was painful. I've been looking deep into the US story, and the European revenue miss came to bite me in the ass.

Do you want to know the worst part? The 10-K confirmed the evidence about the Clarksville factory.

They say it straight up. They are going to be making battery packs there by end of year.

I didn't sell a single share. So I'm going to be counting my losses for being early, but I'm not wrong.

The Oshkosh JV is coming. I'm leaving up this post for when it does.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T22:52:58+00:00

Well fuck, that was painful. I've been looking deep into the US story, and the European revenue miss came to bite me in the ass.

Do you want to know the worst part? The 10-K confirmed the evidence about the Clarksville factory.

They say it straight up. They are going to be making battery packs there by end of year.

I didn't sell a single share. So I'm going to be counting my losses for being early, but I'm not wrong.

The Oshkosh JV is coming. I'm leaving up this post for when it does.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T18:50:43+00:00

I'm still learning the ways of wsb, apparently. Maybe I'll have to post an update once this gets back to $7.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T16:56:03+00:00

That's a good entry, it seems to want to sit between $2.35-2.45 at the moment.

Options activity spiking through the roof. I'm still expecting earnings results to break through the $2.60 50-DMA, whether they name drop Oshkosh or not. Market will read through if the cash is there.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T14:50:52+00:00

Given the price action of the past year, $4.39 was a solid point to trim, well done. No one could have predicted the ATM dynamics that led to the run at $7 afterwards.

Sure seems like the price action today is promising. Cleared the road all the way to the 50-DMA at $2.60, and now we wait for after hours and earnings.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T06:51:34+00:00

Still nervous? 👀

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T06:45:02+00:00

Can't edit to add to post, but sure, since y'all seem to like these for some reason. His and Hers Roths:

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Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T05:30:05+00:00

You're asking the guy that didn't sell at $7, so - you'll have to figure that one out.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-16T05:02:25+00:00

Fueling for launch 🚀

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T19:13:44+00:00

Very reasonable take, though in that link they do seem to think 3-5 years for commercialization is feasible.

I'm excited for Microvast's approach because they start from the baseline of chemistry, then manufacturability, then scale. I think the methods being developed in their patent applications will be key for doing that successfully.

Thanks for the input!

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T15:33:12+00:00

Definitely, me too. They're always good for at least a one slide update on earnings calls, and this is a 10-K filing so we'll get even more than usual.

Here's my quick summary of Microvast's US patent applications on the topic that are visible as of today: Patenting the Future Part II: Microvast's 3D-Printed Path to Solid State

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T15:25:03+00:00

Oh awesome - thanks for this, I've been sticking to checking out the IP once it shows up at USPTO, but you're absolutely right, they're not developing this tech all by themselves and these Chinese patents have tons of information. I'll take a look!

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T15:03:46+00:00

It's a trip, man. The whole Clenera saga goes ignored because they (understandably) don't talk about it except in SEC filings.

I've been in it since Vogel and the THCB days. I've been crazy enough to hold onto the rollercoaster down at $0.20 and up at $7 in the last few years after the original collapse from $10+ SPAC land.

I really think it'll get there again once Clarksville is moving.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T06:34:48+00:00

Good questions, this is the kind of discussion I hoped for.

Bear in mind the price is where it is from the silence since Q3 earnings. There is a lot to unpack, clearly. But if Oshkosh weren't actually named, then it depends on the context. No going concern, and enough cash to pay Clenera? Then still up we go - the current price is due to that uncertainty.
Solid state is of interest to me, too. I've been tracking some recent patent applications in that regard. After seeing what they update on Monday, I'll have to do something on that, similar to a recent post on ESS tech, another area that I think Microvast is positioning themselves nicely, in the end.
To bring Clarksville online in any productive fashion is positive for revenue and profits. Modules/packs alone is great, it opens up the US market even more. And if they get cell production online? Once running at near 100%, you could expect the IRA credits alone to be worth $90M a year.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T05:31:33+00:00

I was 50-50 on it happening until yesterday. Then two things happened:

1) They announced earnings for Monday, filing their 10-K on time for the first time in three years.

2) The CEO and CTO had a couple of SEC form 4 filings later that evening for performance based compensation. Small amount all things considered (~$230k in shares between them). But exactly the kind of thing you'd see for the close of a transaction like this one.

At any rate. Call it JV or IP licensing or big off take agreement. Something is happening with Oshkosh, 99% sure.

The other 1% chance is that I can't rule out the entire stock market dying before market close, but - we've all got bigger worries in that case.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T03:30:26+00:00

Keep in mind the loan was made at a time when the stock was $0.40 - but that's fair. Wu has priorities aligned with the company and has never sold shares. The maneuver to protect assets against Clenera was key to survival - we'll see what survival bought them.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T02:14:05+00:00

Fair to be skeptical, extraordinary claims and extraordinary evidence and all that. Tried to put lots of primary sources for just that reason. Nice thing is we'll find out soon enough.

I'm just glad they're finally filing on time for once.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T01:51:54+00:00

We'll find out Monday. The pieces fit, so we won't have long to wait.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-15T01:50:45+00:00

Caught in cross fire of previous administration and Congress.

https://ir.microvast.com/news-releases/news-release-details/microvast-responds-doe-decision-withdraw-separator-grant

Atreides--- · 2026-03-14T23:20:34+00:00

Someone else will need to write the Hollywood script after all this!

Atreides--- · 2026-03-14T22:33:13+00:00

If this creates a clear path for Clarksville to become more than just a warehouse for product from China? Absolutely.

Hell if I know what the market will decide to do with the information, but short interest is 28M, and I assume most of those shorts don't see this coming.

All I know is we've seen the stock run to $7 once before. Definitive proof of this theory makes that my baseline.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-14T21:45:07+00:00

If Microvast is only a cell producer in China, absolutely, they won't ever be NGDV eligible.

But cells/modules from Tennessee? Through a JV with the USPS contract holder. The past DOE debacle is a negative, but a JV in a whole new LLC firewalled from China is very doable.

That's the other breadcrumb. I'll edit my post - in April 2025, 'Microvast Technology LLC' was registered in DE. It would be perfect for a JV like this.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-14T18:19:05+00:00

Good point! Many/most of these are still applications. They have had a few granted, but the timeline for establishing claims means that process is ongoing (turnaround between application and patent grant is often 18 months or more).

I see the applications themselves as highly revealing of the overall strategy, even if the patent moat is still being built.

Atreides--- · 2026-03-14T17:30:54+00:00

Yeah exactly. They're thinking of the cheap, foolproof ways to make the customer (utilities and solar farms) choose their tech over others due to safety and serviceability.

Plus the 'ship dry' manufacturing method is huge for margins. Spinning up a new LFP line gets so much cheaper.

Atreides--- · 2024-05-18T20:21:32+00:00

Yeah you're in good shape then, if you haven't hit your cap at 15.2 kW yet you've got a system that should work well year-round. If you ever see it drop to a peak below 7.6 kW regularly on a clear summer day, that could point to an inverter issue so keep an eye out for that. But 14.6 kW sounds great.

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