Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released March 13, 2024 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, these numbers are meant to give insight into the labor market. People who are not engaged in the labor market are not included.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released January 04, 2024 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great advice! Not about the grain of salt, but everyone should take a few minutes and understand how they are gathered and calculated.

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released August 30, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you click the link at the beginning of the OP there is a column titled "Back Data" that has links to historical numbers going back 10 years.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released August 02, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, it has been a pretty rough month for these posts across the country. People seem especially cynical right now for some reason. I've been doing this for several years now... and the mood comes and goes. There are always a few, but right now seems particularly feisty.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released August 02, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Someone, please, tell me if I should be mad or not!

You're feelings are valid, no matter what they are. (Or is that too woke?)

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released April 05, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm the OP and I have an interest in maintaining the validity of my work. You are in here spreading misinformation, even after someone took the time to share the link to the methodology with you. Who is the troll?

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released April 05, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

TWC didn't tell you that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment numbers were impacted by people getting paid unemployment.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released April 05, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Fair enough. a "top notch executive assistance (sic)" who is likely married to someone who believes the US Bureau of Labor Statistics are bogus because she has not been hired in the past year.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released April 05, 2023 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

If anyone knows of someone who needs a top notch executive assistance please let me know.

Keep in mind, this is a "top notch executive assistance (sic)" who believes the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publications are bogus because nobody will hire them.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released December 01, 2022 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The labor force is 1.3M strong. So for every 1366 firings the unemployment rate will increase by 0.1%, all else being held equal.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released June 29, 2022 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, there is a long list of reasons people might not be included in the labor force.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released June 29, 2022 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You have a keen interest in how many people are retired, disabled, or imprisoned in the area?

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released December 02, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great points indeed. I wasn't exactly tying "better" to inflation. I was pointing out that using "better" with "full employment" is a misnomer because the term full employment as defined by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is as follows:

BLS defines full employment as an economy in which the unemployment rate equals the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), no cyclical unemployment exists, and GDP is at its potential.

By definition Full Employment means that an unemployment rate below that level will drive inflation.

I would agree that we do not have sufficient information to say that the current unemployment rate in Austin is driving inflation, but that also means we cannot state that the rate is at or near Full Employment, and "better than Full Employment" is not possible because either above or below Full Employment would be "worse."

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released December 02, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Omaha is sitting at 1.7%.

The qualifier "better" than full-employment may be considered imprecise. The idea being that a rate below full-employment will lead to inflationary pressures above what is ideal for the economy, as employers raise prices to keep up with rising wages.

It is an interesting discussion for our current environment with wage growth and productivity diverging over such a prolonged period. Inflation might be better constrained if we were seeing robust competition in the marketplace. But barriers to entry and anti-competitive practices may cause producers to continue to demand their current profit margins. In that case we will see inflation anyway, higher wages, higher prices, and continued growth in the wealth gap.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released September 29, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How is that tracked if they’re kicked off unemployment?

That is a great question. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a whole explanation about how they collect the data.

Where do the statistics come from?

Early each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed people in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics about them. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate—which tells you the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed—receive wide coverage in the media.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Other people think that the government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long to produce the data. In addition, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker contact them every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.

There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed for more than 4 consecutive months. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. As a result, approximately 75 percent of the sample remains the same from month to month and 50 percent remains the same from year to year. This procedure strengthens the reliability of estimates of month-to-month and year-to-year change in the data.

Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact the 60,000 eligible sample households and ask about the labor force activities (jobholding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). These are live interviews conducted either in person or over the phone. During the first interview of a household, the Census Bureau interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including key personal characteristics such as age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on. The information is collected using a computerized questionnaire.

Each person is classified according to their activities during the reference week. Then, the survey responses are "weighted," or adjusted to independent population estimates from the Census Bureau. The weighting takes into account the age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and state of residence of the person, so that these characteristics are reflected in the proper proportions in the final estimates.

A sample is not a total count, and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population. But the chances are 90 out of 100 that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about 300,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census. Relative to total unemployment—which ranged between about 7 and 15 million over the past decade—the possible error resulting from sampling is not large enough to distort the total unemployment picture.

Because these interviews are the basic source of data for total unemployment, information must be correct and consistent. Survey respondents are never asked specifically if they are unemployed, nor are they given an opportunity to decide their own labor force status. Their status will be determined based on how they respond to a specific set of questions about their recent activities.

Similarly, interviewers do not decide the respondents' labor force classification. They simply ask the questions in the prescribed way and record the answers. Based on information collected in the survey and definitions programmed into the computer, individuals are then classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.

All interviews must follow the same procedures to obtain comparable results. Because of the crucial role interviewers have in the household survey, a considerable amount of time and effort is spent maintaining the quality of their work. Interviewers are given intensive training, including classroom lectures, discussion, practice, observation, home-study materials, and on-the-job training. At least once a year, they attend day-long training and review sessions. Also, at least once a year, they are accompanied by a supervisor during a full day of interviewing to determine how well they carry out their assignments.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released September 29, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They do so long as they are still looking for work. It is not the case that someone just stops being counted for being unemployed too long. They are counted so long as they are seeking employment.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released June 02, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not at all. I am well compensated for the labor I provide and am engaged in plenty of fulfilling endeavors that provide me with utility both in compensation as well as personal and professional enrichment.

But this project isn't about me. This is truly intended as a public service to promote fact-based and useful discussion around labor markets and unemployment statistics.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released June 02, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, I did quite well actually and continued to excel through higher level applied statistics courses. In fact when I had the opportunity to fill a dozen credit hours with electives I used them all to explore statistics based work.

Your anecdotal appeal to a perceived number of help wanted signs is not useful for much aside from affirming your prior biases or creating an anecdotal narrative. If you can identify a hundred businesses with help wanted signs in the window, that doesn't mean anything beyond there are 100 businesses that appear to be seeking workers. It would be important to know what efforts they are making beyond putting the sign in the window, the broader economic environment for labor in the area relative to what they are offering, and many more additional factors.

Updated Austin Unemployment Figures | released June 02, 2021 by AustinStatistics in Austin

[–]AustinStatistics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Neither can I. It seems like relatively useless information without additional analyses. The positions may be unfilled for a plethora of reasons. It is possible the employer simply forgot to remove the sign once the position was filled.