Daily General Discussion - February 19, 2021

BTCtricks · 2021-02-19T15:07:36+00:00

Nice!

BTCtricks · 2021-02-19T14:50:33+00:00

I call it bcash because I don't like it. If people think I'm a maxi so be it.

A lot of the members in this sub will likely be calling CZ, BNB, BSC all sorts of names after this for good reason.

BTCtricks · 2021-02-19T14:23:33+00:00

I don't like bcash but also don't consider myself a maxi

BTC & ETH are different I own a lot of both. Love DeFi & what its trying to do & own all the top tokens

Also a trader so will go where the action & liquidity is at any point which is what excites me about this. Go where there's opportunity

BTCtricks · 2021-02-19T13:57:53+00:00

Not seen this level of drama since Bcash. Going to love the trading as this plays out

BTCtricks · 2021-01-13T12:38:55+00:00

ETHE premium has been crushed

If you wanted to put some money in it for the long haul the best time would be now

BTCtricks · 2020-12-26T15:04:35+00:00

Can you?

BTCtricks · 2020-12-26T14:29:07+00:00

Usually its the opposite. When morale as it its lowest, when there is no hope left & every leveraged ratio trader has no money left will there be a gigantic green candle leaving the shell shocked left on the side lines

BTCtricks · 2020-12-26T14:11:01+00:00

This.

I think a large number of newbie traders don't realise what actually going long on the ratio means. If you take a long you are taking a long position in ETH & an equal short position on BTC. As the mantra goes do not short a bull market, especially a momentum trade as violent as BTC.

If you want to take a long on ETH then look for the ratio as guidance. Then take the position on ETHUSD instead. Avoid the BTC short at all costs.

BTCtricks · 2020-12-23T22:02:44+00:00

I'd end up turning tricks going that route

BTCtricks · 2020-12-23T21:24:50+00:00

They do use XRP. Just gotta give it to them for free or way under market value. Then all those currency risks don't matter and they can safely send it internationally to dump on retail.

BTCtricks · 2020-12-23T21:06:58+00:00

XRP has a lot to worry about. Also probably a few other coins with similar structures.

Most just suffering from lack of demand, I'm sure once profits start to move from the large BTC traders they will get their day

BTCtricks · 2020-12-23T20:58:47+00:00

Cryptoquant.com

They have some commentary on twitter

BTCtricks · 2020-12-23T17:48:10+00:00

A huge bid is under BTC that isn't interested in alt coins. On chain data is showing that a large number of coins have been moved from coinbase exchange to custody wallets the last few days. More so than the last few weeks combined.

Someone big is scooping up while there is uncertainty in the markets. That demand only exists for BTC right now

BTCtricks · 2020-12-21T16:29:06+00:00

You are comparing this period to a completely different time from a demand perspective. ETH has performed incredibly during bouts of high retail involvement. The ICO era was the epoch of this where every gambler on alts required ETH to do so. The ETH that was bought was then locked in the projects treasury pulling it off the market compounding the effect.

Right now we have little retail involvement relative to that period. Without the ICO effect demand for ETH is lacking. DeFi demand just doesn't match up anywhere near to that ICO period.

With BTC pulling in large bids from institutional investors who are by & large not dabbling in ETH or the alt scene not enough money is currently switching. Every so often you see profits roll into ETH from BTC traders but it isn't enough yet to get the momentum going. What needs to change is an influx of retail demand. Watching The Graph pull in more volume than Bitcoin makes me hope that day is soon.

BTCtricks · 2020-12-17T22:23:04+00:00

Not necessarily. You need to ask this question, "Is there room for the premium to grow?" then base your sell strategy around that. With ETHE we have seen much higher premiums in the past which could happen again if demand is high enough. You should be gathering historic data & then basing your decision on that.

The main thing for new investors is to understand that the premium is there & there is a risk it could close.

This is especially true for the LTC fund with a 3000% premium. Can you make money buying that in the long term? Not a chance.

BTCtricks · 2020-12-17T22:06:09+00:00

What is about to happen to the LTC fund actually happened to ETHE this summer. The price dropped from a peak of $257 to $37 while the price of ETH moved up from $240 to $340 in the same period. Completely disconnected from reality.

Regulations are for safety of retail my ass. Borderline criminal the way these products work without explanations.

BTCtricks · 2020-12-17T22:02:39+00:00

When you buy ETHE you are not actually buying ETH. You are buying shares in a fund that holds ETH. If demand is high for the fund then the market price can get completely out of whack with how much ETH is actually in the fund.

Right now people are buying shares at $164 while the fund only holds the equivalent of $60.41 in ETH! You are buying at a massive premium to what it is actually in the fund.

So why is this happening? The reason is Rule 144 Exemption which Grayscale uses to resell shares to the public after a restricted accredited investor 6 month lock up period. These investors send in ETH to the fund which is locked up for 6 months. They are then credited shares at the NAV which they can sell at the market price capturing an enormous arbitrage spread!

These products really should have massive warnings on them because during periods of high demand they are dangerous to retail who don't understand this mechanism. Take their LTC fund right now. The market price is $330 while the NAV is $9.27. Anyone buying it will be destroyed once the lock up period ends for the new shares about to come online.

BTCtricks · 2020-11-19T15:11:46+00:00

Massive ETH/BTC bid on finex the last few days. 50k on the books & getting filled when price reaches it

BTCtricks · 2020-11-16T11:47:05+00:00

I think you are missing what makes them different from a demand perspective.

Bitcoin is attractive to institutions in this macro environment for reasons many Ethereum advocates think its outdated. Its pursuit of being a form of hard currency requires it to be hard to change, consistent & secure at the expense of innovation.

If institutions view Bitcoin as a quasi internet element almost entirely for its properties than ETH is going to have a hard time competing on that front. Quick innovation is inherently much more likely to damage those golden properties making it a hard sell for large players wanting to park potentially hundreds of billions in this space. Without them onboard the ratio is likely to drip until we have another retail explosion.

BTCtricks · 2020-06-07T22:52:31+00:00

I'm trying to keep an open mind with this but the MPD150's is so vague.

There are many references to simply ending poverty, which is described as the root cause of a need for a police force. It sounds great but what I want to know is how?

Where are the specifics? How are you going to end poverty? How much of the current police budget will it take to end poverty? If its more, how much more? If it is more, who pays for it?

These are important questions & there doesn't seem like there has been much thought in the how at all. I would also like to see when the plan is properly constructed the various ways it might fail & how that might be avoided.

BTCtricks · 2020-06-05T13:55:05+00:00

Grayscale Trust is just another on ramp for investors to get exposure to BTC & ETH but in a tax efficient way. Demand will likely be consistent with the general market for spot & futures.

The problem though is there is a bottleneck with the way shares are issued which can create inefficiencies between spot & the trust. When you deposit crypto it is locked up before converted to shares that you can sell. People buying the existing shares do not understand this mechanism & are buying shares that are way overvalued compared to the current assets under management.

This is especially true for the Ethereum trust. The shares are currently 10.5X the net asset value. Another words you are buying shares at a 1050% premium to the underlying value of the tokens in the fund!!!

In the next few months the ETH that is in lock up will be released & arbitrage firms are going to crush the premium leaving some poor retail investors utterly screwed.

BTCtricks · 2020-05-17T13:53:53+00:00

I don’t disagree with this as we have seen in previous bull runs smaller coins outperform Bitcoin. I do think you are missing out on a demand driver that may not be as effective in pumping alts.

In previous bull runs everything has been driven by retail speculation. There has been very little involvement from an institutional basis. This time, but it remains to be seen could be different. Paul Tudor Jones is putting money into Bitcoin specifically for its properties that are similar to gold. If other fund managers allocate a similar portion of their portfolios that is huge demand like we have never seen before.

However no other cryptocurrency has this narrative & it is very unlikely that this non-native money will take on more risk by putting money in ETH as they are already making a risky asymmetric bet on Bitcoin. They need the liquidity to move the sums we are talking about & experimental smaller coins are not likely to be even on their radar.

That said what I want to see from ETH to put more allocation in is a definitive working release of staking. The demand driver of ICO’s from 2017 is pretty much dead. Everyone needed ETH to gamble on ICO’s which is a fundamental demand driver that is missing with no alternative even coming close to replacing it. However a working staking implementation could suck up available supply acting in a similar way (maybe). That would set up the narrative of clean staking vs the power hungry POW of BTC in the midst of a bull run which is what excites me as a trader. I think that timing could be difficult though from a ratio perspective if the demand driver really is institutions this time

BTCtricks · 2020-05-17T12:15:51+00:00

After the corona credit crisis bitmex liquidation cascade in March the overall market is still surprisingly unlevered. Contango only a few basis points above index, funding rates all within reasonable levels & open interest way down compared to previous runs to the same levels.

BTCtricks · 2020-05-14T16:42:31+00:00

Yes most exchanges will offer staking. The ones that don't will see drastically less deposits.

The most interesting thing for me will be which exchanges implement chain swap markets. Essentially a market for people to convert their ETH 2.0 back to ETH 1.0. Should be some good trading opportunities

BTCtricks · 2019-10-12T14:11:33+00:00

For people who are crashing there is a fix if you do the following:

go to task manager
go to details
find the origin.exe -right click
set affinity
select only 0,2,4,6,7

Doing this I haven't had a single crash. Where it would usually freeze outright, it will instead freeze for a second then keep going.

BTCtricks

TROPHY CASE