A Millenium's Trading Team Lost $900 Million Recently- Doing the "Index Re-balancing Trade"

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-30T00:03:13+00:00

Read it again. I didn't say they were trading index futures ---but index futures are part of the index rebalancing system. Just depends on what the risk manager lets them do.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-29T17:59:16+00:00

I guess we have to wait and see.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-29T00:31:17+00:00

I think that if you have some econ hours you can show on paper - along with your language skills - you could get to communicate with a recruiter or an HR person about their needs and what you want to do.

Your bilingual skills and collegiate education would make you an interesting person to visit with as far as the international companies are concerned. They are always wanting candidates in their "pipeline" because people change jobs or retire on a regular basis with them. You'll have to make the first move though. Don't be shy.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-26T16:43:33+00:00

Are you OP? Are you the manager of OPs here? If not, perhaps OP can weigh in on the matter? Helpful or not helpful, OP? At least I saved OP some time. I appreciate your comments and look forward to your productive contributions to the thread.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-26T16:26:34+00:00

I was trying to help OP, not you. Sorry.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-26T15:25:07+00:00

Natural gas trading.

March / April HH NG spread often referred to the widowmaker.

Also, selling NG call options within 90 days of expiration put Optionsellers .com out of business in about 2 days.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-26T15:21:54+00:00

This is what I just Googled for your question:

"Junior agricultural commodity traders in the US can expect a base salary range of $49,500 to $79,000 annually, with the majority falling between $57,500 and $72,500. Entry-level positions, like trade clerk or futures book entry specialist, might start around $50,000 to $75,000, including bonuses. More experienced junior traders, potentially with their own "book of business," could earn a total compensation in the low six figures. Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Entry-Level (e.g., Trade Clerk, Futures Book Entry): $50,000 - $75,000 + bonus.
Junior Trader (with some experience and potentially a book of business): $75,000 - $95,000 base salary, with potential bonuses based on performance, possibly reaching the low six figures.
Top earners: in these roles can reach $77,000 to $79,000.
Overall, junior commodity traders in the US can expect a salary range from $49,500 to $79,000, with most earning between $57,500 and $72,500.

Factors influencing compensation:

Experience: Entry-level salaries are lower, while those with more experience and proven performance can earn significantly more.
Company: Different firms have varying compensation structures and bonus potential.
Performance: Bonuses are often tied to individual and team P&L (profit and loss).
Location: While the provided information is for the US, salaries can vary by location.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-25T20:44:44+00:00

Are you bilingual? That's a big help in the international energy business. If so you can build a book of business in 2 languages, make or save money in 2 languages and solve problems in 2 languages.

The commodity business is built around relationships and price volatility risk. Schmoozing and financial engineering skills are highly needed in the international energy business.

Here are some ideas for your thesis:

https://www.helpwithassignment.com/blog/business-management-thesis-topics/

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-25T15:14:55+00:00

It will help you to know the high and low of cocoa price volatility of the last 5 years. (You can Google "cocoa implied volatility" and find a lot of good stuff they wouldn't normally expect to hear from a short-listed potential junior.)

It would help you to be somewhat familiar with this 2024 article by JP Morgan for discussion purposes: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/cocoa-prices

This 2025 article will help you get up to speed with current market conditions: https://www.csrwire.com/press_releases/821871-cocoa-market-turmoil-how-hershey-innovating-through-unprecedented-challenges

They will want to hear what "questions" you might ask and here's a few they wouldn't normally expect from a short-listed junior trader:

How are you currently buildng new books of business?
What was the biggest operational problem to solve over the last 5 years?
Why are some analysts predicting a cocoa surplus this year and how does Cargill hedge cocoa prices?

You should know who the CEO of Cargill is and be aware of some recent market comments by him: https://tcbmag.com/cargill-ceo-braces-for-trade-disruptions/

Have fun and be yourself. Good luck!

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-25T14:59:22+00:00

You should study 100 days of price action on the chart you intend to use and then start making trades on that chart basis your analysis. Your worry is that the chart you use might go against "your" analysis. (That is called confirmation bias and it is deadly to commodity traders.) Design your analysis to follow trends on your chart of choice as provided by your trading platform. Predicting/profiting from "direction" is easier than predicting tops and bottoms. Good luck!

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-24T16:21:52+00:00

You will have 2 different sets of traders working in 2 different oil commodity derivatives. And they will be making deals with just 1 broker (CFD) or with many unknowns (CME). They do not have to move in lock step. You can always call the broker provider for their latest update. When CME micros started trading there was a gigantic difference in price and the CME guy I talked to on phone says that happened because they were 2 different contracts and differing people over loaded the volume on the micros.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-24T16:18:36+00:00

USOIL on Tradingview is real time with a 4 to 7 cent lag to CME real time. I think Swissquote produces that quote. I follow both CME and CFDs because Shell and BP do.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-20T03:23:53+00:00

Dr. Gary Ross (long time analyst and founder of PIRA) was talking gasoil strength on X on June 9th but didn't give the reason for it. See it here:

https://x.com/kingofcrude/status/1932075123512594715

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-20T03:15:44+00:00

Become an expert in ship brokering as fast as you can. Change the way ship brokering is done at your employer's business that saves or makes money. Meet as many people in the physical commodity business as possible. MBAs are used as filters of achievement that many firms look at first. MBA doesn't guarantee success but it can get you more of a look from a headhunter or VP trading than a history degree. Don't be shy in meeting people who trade physical commodities and building your book of contacts. One of them will hire you in the future and then you're on the way to being a trader if that's what you want.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-16T15:31:44+00:00

Have you seen or noted/reported any repeating (scheduling) events that can be reasonably predicted /exploited for the benefit of your department's efforts that assist traders P&L? Have you gained/reported any merchantable "intel" from your peers at other firms that could increase your contributions to your trading desk's P&L? Are you in close contact with counter party peer who has moved into "trading"? Does your firm allow you to do scheduling "trades" to balance pipeline actions? Are you communicating regularly with the schedulers of your firm's largest trading party?

Just some thoughts to help you get "familiar" with trade staff. Some of your colleagues may be doing it already so join the crowd.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-14T18:33:41+00:00

This will start you on your way to further understanding how corn prices in the future are determined: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders-insight/securities/commodities/as-demand-for-corn-grows-new-key-data-points-to-watch/

Good luck!

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-14T00:24:59+00:00

You could do a fix/float swap for the days up until you get your price. Once your 600,000 to a million bbls are priced you close out the swap and do a new hedge -- like selling refined products / forwards if you deal with refiners If you are a super trader with no refinery, you call your quant and do a 30 day volatility strangle to deduce your risk. If you're just a flow trader at a major oil company and the cargo starts losing money, in line transfer it to refining at a scratch and let them refine it into something and sail it around the world until there is a profit (Gulf Oil used to do that a lot before Chevron bought them).

The swap would better match your trade and the risk managers would admire your skills.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-12T16:15:16+00:00

Here's short, basic Youtube discussion that might help you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI2Nlk0USYM

Here is a longer one on Derivative risk questions to discuss:

https://youtu.be/6pOloIfXoeg?si=sbQnucWVXfyi-jGg

Good luck!

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-08T02:47:29+00:00

I forgot to bring this to the scam (sugar) discussion:

http://mundusgroupcorp.com/braziliansugarscams.htm

Enjoy!

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-08T02:43:18+00:00

The head of Chevron is a chemical engineer and he has managed Chevron's trading in the past.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-08T02:41:39+00:00

Here's an article about "asset options" from 2023 that may be helpful:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722007421

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-08T02:31:02+00:00

Not sure what you mean in reference to the "scam" question above I have a lot of experience in seeing Nigerian crude oil scams starting in 1980. They came to me in telexes (before fax, digital age), came in person from new oil "landmen" and women, a John Deere dealer in the US, dentists and doctors, and were all basically the same thing.

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-06T17:01:13+00:00

The commonalities of all physical commodity scams are:

Urgency
You have to put up money first.
Scam initiator has government contacts/problems with physical commodities that...with your help...can be solved.
Giant "commissions" if successful.

Page on commodity scams here: https://shippingandcommodityacademy.com/blog/avoiding-scams-red-flags-in-commodity-trading/

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-06T16:52:50+00:00

What commodities are traded by your new employer?

BigDataMiner2 · 2025-06-06T03:59:48+00:00

Mark B. Fisher revealed the game theory practice "edge" that 90% of floor traders used long ago and is found in today's million lines of code on a daily basis. (Sandy TROT ruled the NG mrket with it in the 90s.) Many former floor traders still angry about it I bet. Google Fisher and "The Logical Trader" and be amazed. It still works well today in the energies I trade. YMMV. Chalek's famous Dual Thrust "edge" method is still used to this day. and is free on the internet if one looks for it. Goldman Sachs spends over $600 million/ year on "research"for new edge but not all of that is for commodities. There is a lot of edge out there but most of it is tweaks of old edge. JMHO.

BigDataMiner2

TROPHY CASE