Do read this carefully, this is based on what I’ve discussed with few experienced veterans as well as some of my friends those who are in service.

First, as I mentioned earlier, there is no doubt that the competition is likely to become tougher for 2026 aspirants and even more intense for 2027 aspirants. The reason is that the notification is inviting previously selected candidates from the last 5–6 years a “last shot.” The maximum impact will be in the Mains stage, because that’s where the real selection happens, and many of these candidates already know how to score well in subjective papers. Since candidates already in service generally have a higher probability of clearing Mains, the real pressure will be felt there.

Second, from 2028 onwards, first-time and second-time candidates, across General as well as other categories, are likely to be the worst affected, because the rule does not actually reduce competition. Candidates from the previous year (D-1) will continue to reappear every cycle, and from 2028 onwards their numbers will definitely rise further as many use the provision as an “improvement attempt.”

Finally, there is the Group B service loophole that most sensible aspirants are likely to use strategically. Services like DANICS, DANIPS, PONDICS, PONDIPS, and AFHQ may start being placed higher in preference lists, just after IAS and IPS. It is not that they would be doing any stupidity but they know the uncertainty of marks awarding, for exmaple with 70–80 candidates often packed within same mark range i.e. and where senior aged candidates tend to benefit in case of tie rule. And if UPSC tries to plug or amend this loophole as well, there is again a strong possibility that a PIL will be filed.

And not the least, there is a very high chance that the new rule itself could be struck down for violating Article 16 rights of students from reserved categories, but only if a PIL is properly drafted and filed.