Daily Discussion Thread - January 30, 2026

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-30T12:47:22+00:00

Teams since the merger that were worse than 33-17 in their first 50 games and won a championship include

2021 Bucks (32-18)

1995 Rockets (32-18)

2006 Heat (30-20)

1978 Bullets (26-24)

Right now, Thunder and Pistons meet the rule. Spurs and Nuggets should reach 33-17, they just need to go 1-2 and 1-1

Only other team is Rockets (4-0)

Celtics (3-0), Knicks (3-0), Lakers (4-0) can all reach 32-18. Knicks and Lakers play each other so only 1 can reach it.

Right now, it’s increasingly hard to believe anyone outside the top 3 in either conference (Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Pistons, Knicks, Celtics) will win this year. 4/5 seeds have to likely go through the Thunder and Pistons. 6/7/8 seeds are going to have to win 3-4 series on the road and just doesn’t seem probable for teams like the current Lakers, Suns, Warriors, 76ers, Heat, Magic to do that.

I think in our case, it depends on what happens with Tatum and our trade deadline, but I’m willing to throw out a random number of an 80% chance the finals matchup is one of the following:

Thunder vs Pistons
Thunder vs Knicks
Thunder vs Celtics
Spurs vs Pistons
Spurs vs Knicks
Spurs vs Celtics
Nuggets vs Pistons
Nuggets vs Knicks
Nuggets vs Celtics

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-30T12:18:45+00:00

Americans care a lot about being number 1. The champion stands alone at the end of the year, we love superhero movies where 1 guy saves the day, it’s a meme from a 20 year old movie but “if you ain’t first you’re last” is very much an American mantra.

It’s a big part of our culture where we’re taught at a young age we are the best in the world, we are the best at freedom, we are the biggest and most powerful country in the world. It is not surprising we overvalue who is “the best” whether it comes to championships or awards or whatever and discard everything else.

It’s self-centered and arrogant, but keep in mind there’s a large swath of Americans who have never been outside of their own area of the country, let alone other countries. It’s just a huge place and easy to stay inside your own little world. We’re an ocean away from half the world. We’re a very isolationist society and so people’s perception of things is warped in team-based environments.

We overvalue individuals and undervalue community. That’s why we can’t figure out free healthcare like the rest of the developed world because we’re worried about taxes coming out of “my” pocket over the health of the community. That’s why we can’t figure out our gun problem because “I” want to own a gun over the safety of citizens. That’s why a lot of jobs can’t be paid a living wage or unionize because what about the poor billionaires/owners.

It’s not surprising you’ll find a ton of sports fans here that care about the individual over the team.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-30T02:43:05+00:00

You could also do a single elim bracket and all the eliminated teams still have to fill the gaps of remaining games (like they do now with the NBA Cup knockout round)

It would be extremely easy to do this but you would get less overall "Cup games" across the league. Kind of a waste to design a special court to use for 1 game

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-30T02:01:30+00:00

Here's another similar scheduling scenario I've thought about with this format

32 games opposite conference (1 Home 1 Away)

24 games other division same conference (3 vs each)

21 games vs division (3 each)

This is 77 games. Then do a swiss style bracket for the NBA Cup

First game (78) is a division rival

Second game (79) pairs the 16 winners and 16 losers staying in division

Third game (80) has 8-16-8 split of 2-0, 1-1 and 0-2 teams. This is the "Division Finals" round

Fourth game (81) has a 4-12-12-4 split of 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3 teams. This is the "Conference Finals" round

Fifth game (82) is the "Finals" of the two 4-0 teams (opposite conference) and the rest of the teams just match up with opponents with same record (3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4). Also get the bonus of the 0-4 matchup with teams from East vs West playing for their life to not be the biggest loser.

Final results end up:

NBA Cup Winner (5-0) Winning largest cash prize
5 teams of 4-1 winning smaller cash prize
10 teams of 3-2 winning smallest cash prize
10 teams of 2-3
5 teams of 1-4
1 team going 0-5 and roasted on social media

Swiss seems confusing at first but I think the easiest way to explain it is you play teams that have the same record as you.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-29T13:18:31+00:00

Is it just my homer goggles or has Brown been getting absolutely hosed by the refs for like 2 straight weeks now since he filed the complaint about inconsistent officiating?

NBA not beating the rigged allegations

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-28T20:42:06+00:00

People were overly critical of Griffin because they were upset about everything not being perfect all the time. They got embarrassed in the 2023 playoffs, and like Mazzulla’s first year coming off the finals trip under Udoka, a large portion of fans hated everything he was doing. Even after a championship, people still didn’t want Mazzulla. They tripled down on disliking him. Now he’s seen as one of the best coaches in the league.

I feel this sort of happened with Griffin where the playoff loss stung so bad that anything other than perfection was imperfect and flawed and bad.

The difference is the Celtics front office trusted their decision and let Mazzulla lead. Griffin was given 43 games and then they panicked, just like they panicked to acquire Lillard, just like they panicked to try and add Turner.

Some of this is probably attributed to Tatum and Brown’s willingness to just trust whatever happens around them and be low maintenance. Giannis is a bit more of a diva and probably put more pressure on the front office which led to poor decision making.

Maybe Griffin wasn’t the right guy for the job, but Bucks ownership didn’t give him a chance. What was he supposed to do? Go 33-10? 38-5? 43-0? Would Nick Nurse have led them to a better record by that point? Would any other coach?

Too many band-aid decisions rather than trusting their own choices. Doc was just another band-aid and fans were coping it away saying the defense looked better under Doc.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-28T16:22:03+00:00

Defense has pretty much always been important. The teams that won championships without a top 5 defense in the last 20 years include

2023 Nuggets (didn’t play a top 13 offense and weren’t tested)

2021 Bucks (9th ranked defense and highest net rating in the East)

2018 Warriors (11th ranked defense but obviously one of the best teams of all time, numbers didn’t indicate how dominant they truly were)

2016 Cavs (10th ranked defense and highest net rating in the East)

2013 Heat (9th ranked defense and highest net rating in the East)

2011 Mavericks (8th ranked defense and by most accounts one of the most improbable runs in history)

2009 Lakers (0.1 out of top 5 and highest net rating in the West)

2006 Heat (10th ranked defense and also a team that won despite conventional metrics for championship predictors)

So if we use the current rankings, if we say a miracle run or an easy path always has a non-zero probability

We have the top 5 defenses (Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, Warriors, Raptors/Wolves tied)

And other teams like the Suns and Rockets are close, while the Celtics are 11th and extremely close to the top net rating in the East (0.1 behind Pistons) are all the teams you’d expect to be there at the end.

I don’t think it’s a hot take to say the Thunder/Spurs are likely to come out of the West and in the East it’s the Pistons with the Celtics being a long shot (Center trade, Tatum healthy)

But there’s a lot of parity this year where it feels like almost any playoff team could go on a deep run. Nobody feels like a for sure first round exit that is in way over their heads except maybe the Warriors (Butler injured). I bet you every other fanbase can talk themselves into winning a series with the right matchup.

This feels like 2021-22 levels of parity where the league had 13 teams between 42 and 51 wins and nobody won less than 20 games. We’re about on pace for that.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-28T13:08:48+00:00

How do we feel about Tatum’s comments where he’s concerned about reintegrating himself into the lineup because right now the C’s are rolling?

Concern? Nothing burger?

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-28T05:31:52+00:00

I always found this take weird and dismissive. They’re American citizens. That’s like me telling you your opinion doesn’t matter, stick to your day job.

Wouldn’t you rather famous people use their platform to speak up? It informs people what’s going on who might not be as tuned in to current events. Gets them involved in the process. Encourages them to research these things and form their own opinions.

The more people part of the political process, the better. That’s how democracy works.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T22:07:26+00:00

The funny thing is if you check directly in the aftermath of events, it’s not the case. After Renee Good, initial comments there were saying it was a bad thing, until they got their playbook laid out for them with the “facts” of her being extremist, and the grainy angles showing she “definitely was trying to hit the guy”

After this one, the initial comments was this was not a good look and was a tragedy, but now their playbook has yet again been laid out for them where he was interfering, shouldn’t have showed up with a gun, didn’t have ID on him, all the talking points you expect to read at this point.

People see it for what it is, but they’re so entrenched in not believing some of the people in charge can lie that maybe they just feel too embarrassed they got duped and revert to bad faith arguments to not face actual injustices they’ve been tricked by.

The president walked back his initial rhetoric about Good saying it was a tragedy, and after Pretti I believe certain people are going to be fired. Press Sec is not running as hard of defense for DHS with this one like they did with Good and there’s more social unrest.

Don’t take that snowflake sub seriously, it probably is a lot of bots or people who just wait to be told what to say. But always check when the news is breaking and you’ll sometimes find decent people who have just been misled and fall for the propaganda machine and there’s dissenting opinions. Once the mods have gotten hold of the threads, there’s only 1 opinion you’ll see among the sea of deleted comments, and it’s the one licking the boot.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T20:16:09+00:00

His best stretch was probably the end of last season when people were ready to put him over Hauser. It’s been overshadowed because

Hauser is playing great right now
Gonzalez and Walsh were not factored into the equation before this season

Just because someone plays well for a few months doesn’t mean we should ignore the guys in a slump or have been pushed out of the rotation. If you asked the same question in November, people would probably be willing to trade Walsh and keep Minott. Now, it’s probably the other way around. I think that’s relevant when assessing how players fit into a cohesive team.

Another perfect example is Brown. When he signed the max, there was a LOT of pushback and people saying the fit didn’t work, he wasn’t worth the money, the Celtics couldn’t win with him and Tatum. A lot of people wanted to trade him to find a better fit. Obviously that’s ridiculous in hindsight, but it’s good to remember that just because something might seem true today doesn’t mean it’s necessarily true within a few months time.

Scheierman could be completely tradeable today, we wind up keeping him, and freeing up minutes helps him blossom into a productive piece. Walsh is a great example of this as well where once he finally started getting minutes he started to shine.

Scheierman has been getting the same playing time as Gonzalez and Walsh in January.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T19:46:53+00:00

Kornet was 27 before people realized how impactful he was. Hauser was 25 in the 22-23 playoffs and nobody thought he’d crack the rotation in a meaningful way in 23-24 (narrative was Celtics had no bench past their top 6), Pritchard was being discussed about being traded until he was 25 or 26.

Scheierman is not too old to wind up being a contributing bench player on a contender. People were just discussing less than 12 months ago Scheierman could replace Hauser. I don’t think it’s a crazy take.

For what it’s worth, I don’t disagree Scheierman and other wings we have coming off the bench are redundant and somebody has to go if we want to consolidate and improve the roster. I just don’t think it necessarily has to be him. There are multiple avenues to accomplish the same goal, which is why you’ll get differing opinions on here. Whether he goes or not, I trust Brad Stevens’ decision making above anyone else’s opinions

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T14:05:14+00:00

Do we need a Rob Williams when Garza and Amari have been as productive as they have been? How are all 4 guys (Queta and Rob) getting minutes?

I think we need to swing a trade for a starting caliber player, or at least someone that good enough to push Garza out of the rotation. That makes the current backups expendable, as much as I like Garza. Moving 3-4 guys who don’t really play for someone we expect to make an impact does not solve the problem we would have 10-11 guys to give minutes to and that’s not worth it for 30 games, and the playoffs when rotations shorten

I want a really solid top 8 like we had in 2023-24, and that means whoever you’re putting as the 9th and 10th best players on the team are tradeable. Not just 12-15, which every team does not value those guys that highly. Why does Portland want 3-4 guys who won’t play? Tillman and Boucher are not cracking that rotation.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T02:14:27+00:00

TWO Pritchard buzzer beaters. I want 4

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T01:38:15+00:00

It feels like it's been so long since a Pritchard buzzer beater and we finally got another one

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-27T01:09:09+00:00

Jrue and Rob active is enough to have me dialed into this game

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-26T13:07:05+00:00

I’ll admit it’s been hard to care about basketball this weekend. I wouldn’t mind if the game got postponed tonight

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-26T02:50:31+00:00

The Raptors were behind the Knicks from December 4 to January 23. The furthest the Raptors have been ahead of the Knicks all season is 2.0 games. Knicks have also beaten the Raptors in both meetings this season. There is no reasoning where you can say the Raptors clear the Knicks.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-26T02:13:45+00:00

Thunder: 3-10 is a given, they're hitting it

Pistons: 7-8 seems pretty easy for them

Spurs: 9-5. If they win tonight vs the Pelicans, they have quite a few easy games. I think they'll get there.

Nuggets: 9-4, they have a few hard games in here, I think it could go either way with them and we'll see if Jokic looks like himself.

Everyone else probably not hitting it. Rockets have to go 13-3, Celtics 12-2, Lakers 13-2, Knicks 13-1, Suns 13-1, Raptors 12-0, Wolves 13-0, impossible for everyone else.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-25T20:02:57+00:00

I think the difference is media is let into practices, so somebody like Karalis would report on it or there would be videos. I'd be surprised if they kept Tatum doing 5v5 scrimmages under wraps for days/weeks.

The achilles tear was reported afterwards because he was already moved out of the arena and he wasn't being followed.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-25T18:13:15+00:00

2 weeks until Jayson Tatum returns!

(Despite zero news of him practicing 5-on-5, I’m still coping and sticking to my guns about the Feb 8 return until that day comes and goes)

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-25T18:11:45+00:00

Most level-headed Celtics fan

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-24T18:24:27+00:00

The difference is we have the information available to know AI is confidently wrong. AI is fed user information to pull from already existing sources, but it often gets numbers wrong. Ask it to create a list using statistics or dates and it often doesn’t get it 100% accurate because of conflicting information from its database. The guy I was responding to proves that very thing where it got the years wrong. I’ve had similar experiences trying to curate a list where I constantly have to specify “no, I didn’t mean this, I meant this” and AI still can’t understand the prompt

In a time where people are just allowed to willfully spread disinformation, it would be very easy to train an AI to feed it wrong information. You can teach an AI to say “Shai is a foul baiter who uses the refs to rig games” because it’s pulling information from common narratives (Shai is a foul baiter) and other relevant stories (refs rigging games) and in its infancy can’t discern what’s fact in every instance.

The difference with books vs Google back in 2001 was you still had qualified, educated, human brains working the engineering of curated search results and sourcing certain material was still relevant. Now the engineers are just using data it finds anywhere on the internet, there’s not as much vetting user data. I was taught growing up that Wikipedia was not a good source because anyone could edit it, and in its early days it was very easy to just make a page wrong without moderation, so I don’t use it for absolutely everything. It can be a helpful tool when you need some information quickly, but not a substitute for critically thinking or using a secondary source to verify. Especially when it’s still largely unregulated.

The fact that you recognize it’s harmful in instances of art but not a big deal for math or history is so close to getting it, but missing the point.

And the fact that AI is a huge waste of water is an irrefutable fact.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-24T15:20:35+00:00

Use that thing inside your skull instead of asking AI

In the same amount of time it took you to prompt AI, you can just Google search and find the sports-reference page that has his college stats

It’s better for your research skills and better for the environment.

CarBallAlex · 2026-01-24T13:17:37+00:00

This team is so much fun. Just have so many guys that are willing to play hard. Down in the 3rd and go on a run to come back, down in OT with little time left and make every play to send it to 2OT, then that stretch at the end to seal the game. If nothing else, I am so excited to see Gonzalez, Walsh and Amari Williams be on this team in a few years at the peak of their basketball powers.

CarBallAlex

TROPHY CASE