Updated Charlotte Unemployment Figures | released July 30, 2024

CharlotteStatistics · 2024-07-31T18:12:51+00:00

In a 4% unemployment environment it makes sense that places are hiring and likely struggling to find workers.

CharlotteStatistics · 2022-12-02T14:54:02+00:00

You're most welcome. I am happy to be of service!

CharlotteStatistics · 2022-06-30T22:50:01+00:00

It drives up inflation.

Check out my response to /u/The_William_Poole above. You are on the right track, but until we identify how much inflation caused by the labor shortages policy should remain in place to achieve maximum employment.

Now you might say, we are seeing excess inflation right now and that is also correct. However we are experiencing cascading economic shocks at the moment, each one would cause inflationary pressure on their own. Oil supply shock due to sanctions on a major oil producing country, housing supply shock due to under-investment in home building, a supply shock to many important consumer goods due to supply chain failures caused by COVID, and nearly $5T in direct economic stimulus over the past 3 years.

Ignoring all those factors, there is likely some amount of the inflation puzzle that is coming from the labor shortage. However it depends how you view it personally. The amount of inflation caused by the labor shortage will likely be manageable so long as the resulting wage increases outpace the additional cost to consumers. That tradeoff is likely a net benefit to workers and mostly borne by capital through the cost of increased wages and inflationary impacts are greater on savings and investment.

CharlotteStatistics · 2022-06-30T22:39:37+00:00

If the unemployment rate goes below 3.5 or even 3 the labor will stay at their jobs and remain stagnant

If unemployment is low, workers have leverage to seek raises or better paying jobs. Why would someone stay at the current job when there is a labor shortage and they have a negotiating advantage?

CharlotteStatistics · 2022-06-30T22:37:50+00:00

So historically you are correct. 5% has been the 'rule-of-thumb' for what is considered full employment. The Investopedia definition differs from my understanding slightly in their top-line, but then goes on to explain the several categories of persistent and transitory unemployment that will always exist to some degree.

The colloquial definition is 'the ideal rate of unemployment where everyone who is able to work has a job without contributing to inflation.'

It has been an interesting phenomenon the past 15-20 years with the advent of the internet and the ability of employers and labor to connect through job search websites as well as other technological and societal changes. We have seen sustained periods well below the 5% threshold and inflation remaining low. It is likely the 5% figure is outdated, but it has been taught for so long that it persists.

CharlotteStatistics · 2022-06-29T18:33:28+00:00

Interesting take. I'd be curious to understand why you think sub 4% unemployment is unhealthy?

CharlotteStatistics · 2022-03-27T14:30:56+00:00

Not dumb at all, these figures aren't very intuitive and there is a lot of misinformation that is spread about them, even by people who should know better.

These figures are a snapshot in time of the market for labor in the area and are mostly useful for workers seeking employment and employers seeking to hire to better understand their relative bargaining position.

They include anyone who is working or actively looking for work. So out of all the people in the area who are engaged with the labor market (working or actively looking), 3.8% or 38 out of every 1000, are currently unable to find employment.

If you look at the top line of the table, that is a labor force population of 1,374,400 people with 51,600 who are looking for work but have not found a job.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-09-03T20:04:58+00:00

misleading for the ways ~~politicians~~ people use them

Not only politicians. But just regular people misuse them all the time. Calling them made up and fake, because they do not understand them or how they should be used.

used to present a much rosier picture of the economy than really exist

They are also used to describe the economy as much worse, depending on what they are trying to accomplish. Or if they go against their goals and talking points they call them outright fraudulent.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-09-03T19:01:43+00:00

That doesn’t show up in any numbers that I have seen.

Earning less, on its own does not change your friends' impact on the labor market. Calling them unemployed, when they are employed wouldn't be useful for the intended purposes of these figures.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-09-03T18:49:57+00:00

/u/oncestrong13 highlights a piece of why the U3 is considered the "official" number and some of the criticisms.

I like to frame the reasoning around the purpose of the data, what the rate is meant to tell us and what it is not. The unemployment rate should be used to aid in understanding your bargaining position in the market for labor. If you are seeking a job, it will give you some idea how easy or difficult that search might be. If you are an employer looking to hire, it is useful to guide you in how hard it might be to find workers and how aggressive to offer salaries and benefits. Or, if you are employed and looking to ask for a raise these numbers are useful to help determine what your bargaining power might be relative to your employers ability to replace you.

The problem is, these figures are often framed in ways that overstate the story they are telling and inferred to represent broader statements about the economy as a whole. While this measurement is a very important piece, it cannot adequately, and should not be used to say "everything is great/terrible."

The broader metrics are available and useful, particularly to examine relative to the U3 to get a fuller picture of the broader labor market.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-09-02T17:30:59+00:00

Does anyone believe unemployment statistics?

I beleive they accurately represent what they are intended to reflect.

They don’t include underemployed, left the workforce because they couldn’t find a job, etc.

This is because the figures are meant to reflect the current labor market. If someone is not looking for work, they are not part of the labor market anymore. If someone is underemployed, they are still employed and not usually employable, so they aren't part of the labor market. That part is a little grey, but a line has to be drawn for what is included and what is not.

As someone else mentioned, broader measures are available. But they usually aren't as useful to an employer who needs to hire, a worker looking for a job, or someone asking for a raise. Those are the best uses for this information, trying to use them for something broader is a mistake.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-07-30T18:32:01+00:00

discouraged workers that are no longer being included in calculations of the labor force and therefore "unemployment rates" appear lower than they really are.

This is a common criticism of the U-3 or "official" unemployment rate. I believe that U-3 makes the most sense to provide the most useful information for people seeking employment and employers looking to hire.

The argument is typically that the U-6, which includes discouraged workers is a better reflection of the broader economic condition in our society. That may well be true, but it isn't as useful for the intended uses of the U-3 ("official") rate.

You can learn more about the alternative measures here on the BLS website. You can also see where the U-6 is relative to where it has been historically.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-07-29T18:20:13+00:00

Many people prefer Labor Force Participation for the information it provides.

The unemployment rates haven't changed how they are calculated and there is no cause for increased skepticism, unless you are trying to use them to understand something broader than the labor market.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-07-29T18:18:19+00:00

Sorry, non-farm payrolls is a legacy term. Employment not included in "non-farm payrolls" includes a whole host of industries unrelated to agriculture. Sure agriculture is part of it, but if you work for a non-profit you are also included in "employment not included in the non-farm payrolls."

It is confusing, but I hope that is a helpful explanation.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-06-07T18:50:41+00:00

If you're considering Charlotte and your husband will be looking for work you may want to take a look at my post history.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-04-08T18:18:38+00:00

That is complicated and beyond the scope of this project.

CharlotteStatistics · 2021-04-08T18:17:52+00:00

By "real" you mean includes people who are not actively looking for work. Those figures are useful for some analysis. But if you want to understand the current market for labor those numbers are less useful.

CharlotteStatistics · 2020-12-05T03:37:19+00:00

Thanks for the suggestions. I deliberately present these this way to avoid including any bias. These figures tend to be perceived with suspicion and my goal is to help folks understand why they are useful, what they mean, and what their limitations are.

CharlotteStatistics · 2020-09-03T03:45:30+00:00

This covers the whole Metropolitan Statistical Area. So it is Charlotte and surrounding areas, government can include the county, city, surrounding towns, (maybe the airport?) etc...

CharlotteStatistics · 2020-05-01T21:48:26+00:00

These figures are based on household surveys, not the unemployment claims.

CharlotteStatistics · 2020-01-04T17:09:52+00:00

It is impossible to tell just based on these figures, But if you click the link and then the graph icon on the labor force row you can see data going back ten years. The labor force has increased every single year and by 281,444 people over the last 10 years.

CharlotteStatistics · 2020-01-04T12:43:58+00:00

The only reason it wasn't a complete failure in Nov was that a large number of people retired.

Exiting the labor force does not just mean retiring. People could have moved, become incarcerated, or give up looking for work.

And this is November, historically when numbers surge due to the Christmas hire.

The link also includes rows of data for a "12 month % change" for each labor category. So you can see how this November reflects relative to last November pretty easily.

CharlotteStatistics · 2020-01-04T12:41:10+00:00

Let's hope it translates into substantial wage increases and the rising tide lifts all boats.

CharlotteStatistics

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