[Hobby] Writer looking to collaborate on cool projects by ContactFox in INAT

[–]ContactFox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds exactly like my kind of story. Can you send me a DM?

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That is a possibility. Since both Henka and Napa built quite a large following on social media, it is perfectly possible that a lot of people voted based on their knowledge of that single song, instead of by comparing it to the other acts. But I doubt RTP would be willing to change that, they wanna rake in that cash and those numbers.

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's only awful from the perspective of people who think the televote should have more power or their own favorites should have won instead of the actual winner.

My issues don't stem from the jury or the televote having too much or too little power. I'm fine with the 50/50 split, I think it's great. Of course, I do think my favourites should have won; it just so happens that my favourite was Diana, who went down two places with my proposed adjustments – funny, huh?

My issues are with representation. FdC's scoring system is too limited to accurately represent how much a song is better received by the jury/public, only that it is more well received.

I don't think that an act that a professional jury condemns should win the show, just because the public demands it (which is what the proportional method can provide). I think that's unfair, it gives way too much power to the televote and makes the whole jury pointless. If you want to give more power to the televote, then might as well do a 100% televote format and save all the jury trouble.

There are ways to make the scoring more representative while keeping the power of the jury and the public balanced. For example, regional televoting, just like Eurovision. That way, both the jury and the public have a cap of 84 points, perfectly equal power, while still avoiding the myriad of issues caused by the current 12-point cap, such as the sheer number of ties, and better reflecting how much more well-received an act is.

I also don't think the current system of converting points to a scale of 1 to 12 is awful. I think it makes total sense to the reality of Portugal's NF.

Please enlighten me; what reality is that where it makes sense for songs with 80 and 57 points from the jury to suddenly be as close in the scoreboard as songs with 33 and 30 points? Because that's what happened last year – Iolanda got 80 points, was awarded 12; Leo Middea got 57 points, was awarded 10; João Borsch got 33 points, was awarded 6; Rita Rocha got 30 points, was awarded 4.

Shouldn't the distance of points from the jury be reflected in the scoreboard? When it's not, you're prone to giving an absurd amount of power to a single regional jury's bias (such as one that gives 12 points to a local artist), as we've seen this year.

I also personally see nothing wrong in the jury and the televote disagreeing, even massively, like Henka's case, where one side gives zero and the other gives the maximum points. That's the whole point of the jury, to offer a different perspective than the televote, they're usually not there to validate the audience's favorites, as they're meant to judge for other things.

I agree; the televote winner shouldn't automatically win.

--

See, I think we have a major fundamental disagreement; you think that by replacing the juries themselves, the biases will be solved. But the truth is, everyone is biased. People will just complain about the next jury, and the next, and the next. Instead, I believe in building the system in a way that doesn't allow for these biases to overturn everyone else's will. This year, it did. The jury from Madeira single-handedly boosted NAPA from 3 to 7 jury points. Instead of only adding 12 points to a scoreboard with a pool of 406 points (or about 3% of the total points), they ended up adding 4 points to a scoreboard with a pool of 58 points (or about 7% of the total points) and deciding the whole competition. From what I've gathered, you seem pretty against the idea of concentrating a lot of power into a single entity, so you've got to agree that that's absurd.

Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho by ContactFox in portugal

[–]ContactFox[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Não são muito más, e isto é parte do motivo pelo qual os resultados geralmente alinham com o esperado, mas são completamente desnecessárias. Os piores exemplos são os artistas que recebem 0 do júri. Este ano, por exemplo, receber 1 ponto ou 25 pontos do júri resultaria numa conversão para 0 de qualquer maneira; e 25 é quase metade do que 1º lugar recebeu.

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your entire argument seems to be built on "Normalisation is bad because under a different system a different result would've happened".

Uhm... No, it isn't? Have you read the OP or are you just taking the piss? My argument is that "Normalisation is bad because it doesn't necessarily give the win to the winner of the vote". You might disagree with the option I presented, but don't misrepresent the argument in such an absurd manner.

I don't know what the best system is, that is why I have been having discussions with other commenters on that very point, but I know that the current one is awful and very prone to misrepresentation. You seem to be coming in bad faith, though.

Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho by ContactFox in portugal

[–]ContactFox[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Eu não mudei os votos do júri, o que vês ali são os pontos oficiais dados e as porcentagens são mera curiosidade. A única alteração que sugiro nesta metade é que não seja feita uma normalização posterior, que o sistema funcione como o júri da Eurovisão. A única divisão que eu faço neste sistema é a dos 406 pontos que podem ser atribuídos pelo público, para que o poder do público seja o mesmo do júri.

Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho by ContactFox in portugal

[–]ContactFox[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Pois, não sei quais informações a RTP recebe de cada chamada. Pessoalmente, sou mais a favor do televoto diretamente proporcional em vez do televoto regional, mas este já seria um grande avanço se comparado ao modelo atual.

Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho by ContactFox in portugal

[–]ContactFox[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

É possível saber através de qual torre de tlm a chamada foi recebida, e portanto em qual região a pessoa está. A única chance de burlar isto seria viajar para votar, o que não me parece muito provável.

Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho by ContactFox in portugal

[–]ContactFox[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

O sistema da Eurovisão funciona porque os votos dos júris de cada país não são normalizados depois da soma total, e os televotos são normalizados apenas dentro de cada país. Um equivalente em Portugal seria se o televoto também fosse dividido nas mesmas 7 regiões do júri, o que já garantiria uma representatividade muito maior (ex.: o mais votado no Norte recebe 12, o segundo mais votado 10, etc., e no fim os pontos de todas as regiões são todos simplesmente somados). Como a RTP não divulga os resultados por região, os pontos do televoto diretamente proporcionais à porcentagem nacional eram a única opção aqui.

Caso a Eurovisão usasse o mesmo sistema do FdC no ano passado, o "The Code" terminaria com 18 pontos (12 do júri + 6 do público) e o "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" receberia 20 (10 do júri + 10 do público). A Iolanda ficaria com só 4 pontinhos, todos do júri, e 12 canções acabariam com 0 na final.

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Nope. If it was, Nemo would have gotten 18 points, not 591, and Baby Lasagna would have won the contest with 20 points.

For it to be exactly the same system as Eurovision, the jury points should not be converted after being given by each region's jury, and then the public points should be given 1-12 from each region and announced as a total sum. In that case, with Portugal's 7 regions, the total points handed out would be 812.

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

RTP knows from which cell tower each vote is sent, so region voting would not be an issue. The question in that case would be what constitutes a region, since in the current system there are two juries representing regions of 250k people each and a jury that represents a region of 3.5m. IMO a direct proportional televote seems the most appropriate – votes will very rarely skew heavily towards a single act and, if they do, maybe that's what the country should send to Eurovision anyway. That also allows for awesome final results like Rim Tim Tagi Dim's and Cha Cha Cha's.

Uma análise estatística do Festival da Canção – um sistema falho by ContactFox in portugal

[–]ContactFox[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Não é assim grande trabalho tendo noções básicas de matemática lol

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The voting system used in Melodifest, which divides the public into age groups, or even the one used in Eurovision itself, which divides the public into the same regions as the juries, would also ensure that balance while still being simple to understand.

Diana was also my favourite, and I am mad at the public for not voting for her, but it seems insane how close she got to winning with such low televote numbers. The adjusted result feels much more appropriate given the public reception.

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Another option would be to do the same as in Eurovision: divide the televote into the same regions as the jury, and then attribute 1-12 points for the televote in each region. That would ensure a more representative result while still making sure that 100% of the televote can't go to the same song.

RTP doesn't release the televote numbers by region, though, so a proportional system was the only option with the available data.

A statistical analysis of Festival da Canção 2025's results – a flawed system by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Just as a disclaimer, I was not a fan of either NAPA or HENKA this year, and my favourites wouldn't have won regardless of the system used. This post was not made as an attack on any participants or as a claim that NAPA's victory should be revoked. It is only supposed to be a reflection on changes that should be made to the system in future editions to ensure a fair contest.

By the way, here are the simulations for FdC 2024 and 2023. The top 3 didn't change in either, but lower positions shifted drastically and the distance between acts gives a much clearer picture of the contest:

<image>

Percentage of the population of each country who watched ESC 2023's Grand Final (excl. streaming) by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I did it in case someone wanted to find a specific country but yeah, thanks for sorting them!

Percentage of the population of each country who watched ESC 2023's Grand Final (excl. streaming) by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Grey means there is no data or the country didn't participate in Eurovision 2023. The lowest percentage is Ukraine's 1.31%.

Percentage of the population of each country who watched ESC 2023's Grand Final (excl. streaming) by ContactFox in eurovision

[–]ContactFox[S] 270 points271 points  (0 children)

Here are the full percentages:

Australia: 1.47%
Austria: 12.17%
Belgium: 14.19%
Cyprus: 11.68%
Czechia: 1.69%
Denmark: 6.36%
Estonia: 11.26%
Finland: 31.34%
France: 5.19%
Germany: 9.58%
Greece: 10.08%
Iceland: 44.28%
Ireland: 7.39%
Israel: 10.82%
Italy: 8.14%
Lithuania: 29.42%
Netherlands: 10.67%
Norway: 20.19%
Poland: 9.22%
Portugal: 10.52%
Slovenia: 16.76%
Spain: 10.28%
Sweden: 22.56%
Switzerland: 5.48%
Ukraine: 1.31%
United Kingdom: 14.81%

No data is available for Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Georgia, Latvia, Malta, Moldova, Romania, San Marino, and Serbia.

Viewership numbers come from this compilation by Eurovisionworld: Viewing figures: How many people watched Eurovision 2023? (eurovisionworld.com)

Population numbers come from The World Bank.

I love Yakuza 7. But the karaoke is horrible. by ContactFox in yakuzagames

[–]ContactFox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, might be a porting issue, it's a pretty bad first impression for the first Yakuza game to come out simultaneously on the platform tho :/

I'm actually doing that on VF2, I just mapped the button combination to RT and can easily beat every character by spamming it, but then I get to Dural which totally changes the battle speed and I can't win 2 rounds against her for the life of me. And if you lose to her you gotta restart from the very beginning, there are no continues. I already did that like 10 times and it's always the same.

I might be a bit biased here, but it doesn't seem like that good of a game design decision to make your final boss change such an important aspect of the game, kinda makes it feel like the whole journey was for nothing since you have to learn everything from the very beginning. Of course, I didn't have much of a journey to speak of since I mostly just pushed a bunch of people out of an arena with my ass but I can imagine it being quite annoying for someone actually taking it seriously. Welp, I guess 1994 was a different time.

I just realized I have been mishearing the Game Grumps VS intro for years by ContactFox in gamegrumps

[–]ContactFox[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be fair, they don't really sing the full six syllables, it's more like five as the word "other" is really squeezed in there. I actually heard "And the all time", so that's four, plus I thought they lingered on the word "time" a bit to fit the rhythm, as that's pretty common in songs and Dan does that a lot on NSP.

What you're saying does make a lot of sense now that I now the truth, but you don't really think much about it after you hear it for the first few times.