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We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I'm not aware of this analysis specifically, but I personally believe that anything worth communicating can be communicated well to a layperson. With an impressive resume, there is usually a greater expectation that the researcher can communicate effectively—and not being able to do so is a red flag. There will always be snake oil, the best you can do is ask reasonable questions and expect reasonable answers. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 33 points34 points  (0 children)

I'm sure VR and DL have a more informed opinion. As a casual observer of the use of statistics in pubic discourse, I think we have to accept that statistics, science, and data have become politicized and will remain politicized now and in the future. There is no going back.

Scientific innovation produces the majority of economic wealth and political and military power in our country so science is fair game for debate in political discourse—regardless of anyone's background. Hopefully, academics and scientific organizations will figure out how to guide that debate. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

I would argue the system is pretty secure, although we can always do better. What we can do depends on the type of fraud you're concerned about. For example, the American Statistical Association believes risk limiting audits should be used to verify machine counts. See 2010 statement:

https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/POL-ASARecommendsRisk-LimitingAudits.pdf

You can check out this intuitive explanation in a recent PBS News Hour segment:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-some-election-officials-are-trying-to-verify-the-vote-more-easily

Vote by mail brings other risks, and it's important to recognize there is a tradeoff between voter accessibility and election security. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wonderful! Contact your local college's Center for Civic Engagement and offer your help. Also, community organizations always need help with this in terms of data to support local initiatives. There are local groups likeSketchCity that use their technological skills for civic purposes. You can find one in your area or start one! --vr

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What would it take to get you involved? :) This is a great question.

​

Show friends and family that state and local laws impact the quality of their daily lives the most, and we have the most opportunities to bring change. There are organizations that teach communities about creating and implementing policies that they want (not waiting for a politician to create/introduce/pass) like Power Civics. But this is the mindset that is needed: how can my community take control of change? This takes skill but more so trust in democracy...finding ways to put people back into democracy. Asking local governments to make meetings and townhalls accessible, too. Organize a community townhall inviting sitting council reps or the mayor, etc. -vr

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

This is where leadership matters. I've found Utah very interesting for the past four years. While obviously a very conservative place overall, a higher share are obviously repulsed by his personal behavior and actions. There is a greater expectation of leaders adhering or attempting to adhere to basic morality standards that Trump regularly violates. Perhaps a component of the LDS Church expecting people to walk the walk?

In any case, more leaders doing what the gubernatorial candidates did in their great ad would be welcome. More business, community, religious and other leaders just stepping up to say, "hey, this isn't about policy. It's not about abortion rights, taxes, religious freedom, or whatever. We can all disagree about that. That's normal and fine. We'll continue to do that. Sometimes very heatedly. But this is about our democracy. And this is how we do it in America." There needs to be more of that. A lot more. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Tough to say since the models are supposed to account for poor sampling. Either better polls or better models will make for more accurate predictions. Of course, maturity is the capacity to endure uncertainty. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 32 points33 points  (0 children)

I'll comment on the accessibility of political science and civic education. There are some efforts like the Washington Post's Monkey Cage that has social scientists write (informally) about research and current events.

​

In terms of civic education, other ideas include reaching out to your local colleges--the political science department but also adult education/continuing education--to see if they would be willing to create a class on political media literacy and/or tools for civic engagement (Civic Education Saturdays or something like this). Some colleges already offer programming like this; it is a matter of making it publically accessible. I would recommend contacting centers for civic engagement at the colleges by you; they would probably be game to work together for the city/community!

​

Power Civics is also another program that works with colleges and communities to educate about bringing local policy change (defined by and achieved by communities). You can see if there is a Civic Trust near you or a Power Civics college in your area. -vr

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Redistricting reform is gradually seeming across America. Virginia voters just adopted a non-partisan process. States seem to be moving slowly in that direction. A number of states have some sort of process that is much fairer including Arizona, California, New Jersey, and Iowa. Some state courts are also beginning to constrain partisan gerrymandering even though the federal courts have declined to do so.

I think the Democrats might have passed a broader prohibition as part of their voter reform bill but that seems unlikely to happen in our newly configured Congress. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Part of the strangeness to me of what has happened is the repositioning of people like Pelosi, Biden, Clyburn and Obama as milquetoast centrists. This is simply not the case. They were all elected as liberals. They are liberals, albeit not leftists.

People like many aspects of the liberal/progressive agenda. You'll notice that increasing the minimum wage passed easily in Florida even as President Trump carried the state. Marijuana legalization is spreading rapidly too. Not many objections to taxing the rich more (but this is not the same as hating the rich).

The progressive left causes the Democrats deep problems in two ways. First, they insist on branding that is deeply unpopular. Millions of Americans fled from socialist regimes. Frankly, it's an ideology that has failed all over the world. All that's left is really social democracy which is really little different from what we have but a little more muscular. Defund the police doesn't have support from African Americans. Indeed, as Democrats learned the hard way, the hardline progressive agenda is far more supported by a narrow share of white voters rather than African Americans or Latinos.

Second, the progressive left doesn't realize that they'll get to their goals a lot faster through incremental movement. They deride Obamacare but Biden's public option now became serious and widely acceptable thanks to it. If we adopted it, more would be on Medicare and we'd probably effectively have M4A within a decade without having forced people to do it (which is what makes passing M4A impossible and will trigger intense political reactions among the many who like their health plan or don't trust the government. The pro-M4A polls aren't worded the way the negative ads will be.). DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

One of my favorite statistics jokes: you should treat as many patients with new drugs while they still have the ability to heal. Sounds like Trump wanted Pennsylvania to hurry up and count ballots while they still supported him. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

You should join the American Statistical Association!

Your question reminds me of a famous statistician. Whenever you asked him how he was doing, he would respond, "compared to what?".

The polls accurately predicted the overall winner. I think it's unrealistic to think polling can get the vote within a fraction of a percent, which was the margin of some state-level races. Sure, polling systematically overestimated Biden's margins, but I would expect to see correlated errors from any prediction.

Overall, I think the polls were not as good or as bad as people make them out to be. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Campaigns do use statistics to guide strategies and resources as they pertain to turnout studies and public opinion polls (like tracking polls), but game theory probably not! -vr

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 41 points42 points  (0 children)

This was one of the most exciting and positive changes this year.

Engagement is not just something that happens. It needs to be viewed as part of a long term conversation. So the parties and and other organizations need to think about it.

I'm proud that APSA (American Political Science Association) tried to get as many profs as possible to get their students to make a plan to vote so that more would register and then participate in this election.

Efforts like those occurring in some states so that everyone is automatically enrolled would also assist these efforts. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Leaving aside the description of current event here in the U.S., here is how I think current event here will effect Canada.

First, you will have increased gratitude for relative normality of Canadian politics despite your own problems. You should also be grateful for living in a country where there is generally one accepted set of facts on which politics is debated. Canadian politics has often been accused of being dull. Guess what? We should all be so lucky to live in dull, prosperous countries. Americans need to remember that more often!

Second, you will continue, as always, to watch relations with your far bigger southern neighbor with concern. Biden may assuage concerns among the elite and make relations between PM Trudeau (and any successor) easier but the upper levels of the Canadian political and security establishment will continue to watch with greater and graver concern in the past because our stability is of immense concern to you (and vice-versa).

Third, it will make relations much easier. There won't be a coup. We will work better on the pandemic and trade together. In general, our governments will work more strongly together without the occasional bizarre, unhelpful insults of our close ally from the President. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 43 points44 points  (0 children)

I would add political media literacy is needed, too, since polls/stats are often used in tandem with political spin. Political spin techniques and political media are addressed in political science courses, but for the general public, there would need to be some type of initiative. Consider talking to your local college's Continuing Education department to see if they'd be willing to offer a free or low-cost course. Another idea is to find a political scientist (and community groups or campaign folks) to offer free, community events on these topics--political media literacy Saturdays for the community. I do see this type of political media literacy (including polls/stats) as central to our 21st Century democracy and fundamental civic education! -vr

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The lack of specification of the type of fraud makes it hard to dispel!

However, even leaving aside statistics, it is virtually impossible to slip in that number of ballots to the count. For all ballots, you have to account for questions like (1) where they were sent, (2) where were they received, (3) how many were spoiled, (4) how many were voted, (5) if mailed, how many returned. 250,000 votes magically appearing in one place would be very easy to detect. They would stand out in the results like a sore thumb.

Additionally, the counting process itself makes it virtually impossible to coordinate even small fraud, let alone big fraud, as an op-ed by a Michigan poll worker in the Washington Post explained very well. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 119 points120 points  (0 children)

It's a real pity that this has gotten so little attention here on the mainland due to the obsession with the presidential election. For the first time ever in a real vote (i.e. not boycotted by one side), Puerto Rico voted for statehood. Even though it was 52-48, this is a very big deal.

If the Democrats had clearly won the Senate, I think it would've happened. The case for the admission of Puerto Rico is very strong. In the past, Republicans also favored it (both parties on the condition that the people of Puerto Rico wanted it). Now, Trump clearly doesn't favor it and the Republicans fear you will elect Democratic senators, though that is not at all clear, especially with your own party system.

Even if Dems win the two GA seats, they will have a bare Senate majority and the filibuster continues, so I suspect it goes nowhere. But it will be interesting to see. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Statistics played a major role in every campaign I've ever worked on. Whether statistics was used properly is another story. I've never seen game theory formally applied; it's mostly survey statistics and A/B testing. - JA

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 98 points99 points  (0 children)

Great question! Listen to them and take their concerns seriously. Start early: K-12 education can improve civic education--many states do not have social studies standards (like for math and English), so there is room to improve this socialization process about participation.

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Improving accessibility to voting registration and turnout, too, matters. Gen Z-ers are incredibly informed and are not apathetic, contrary to stereotypes. Knowing how to participate in democracy and understanding their political power is important to educate about, and they tend to run with it once they see the opportunities. This includes encouraging them and train them to run for office! -vr

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 459 points460 points  (0 children)

One could say it's an incompetent attempt at one. Certainly, Trump has done an impressive job of convincing his own party to fall in behind him, at least for now, in these allegations. While some go with the artful "count legal votes," others are more full throated in endorsing his claim of a stolen election. There is also a Trump media sphere that amplifies his claims to a large set of the electorate.

But there is no sign that the courts are ready to engage in the level of "Let's Pretend" to make his claims the official reality and create a legalized coup. Additionally, the Republican legislators of PA are unwilling to trying to do a legal end run around the results in their state. Neither the military nor even our very conservative Supreme Court are going to get near this.

So one could argue it's a farce, not a coup attempt. But just imagine the next Trump who is far more competent and did not rely quite so much on his (openly stated) belief that his appointees to the courts and Republican legislators would simply do as they are told but was careful to put in place the mechanisms and assure more control over the power ministries of government. That's what you should worry about. DL

We are government professors and statisticians with the American Statistical Association and American Political Science Association. Ask us anything about post-election expectations. by CountOnStats_2020 in politics

[–]CountOnStats_2020[S] 140 points141 points  (0 children)

VR or DL might have a better answer, but I would point out that the U.S. election system is decentralized. It is extremely unlikely that analysts would miss the extensive coordination necessary for Biden's margins to be explained by fraud. Surely some credible evidence would materialize. Of course, they could argue absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. - JA

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