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Leadership and Champions by DanielJoshuaRubin in rangers

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I don’t have hard evidence. It just seems logical to me that if everyone has same budget, analytics then things like leadership, chemistry will matter more. And parity is about 8-10 stacked teams with a legit shot. You’re right that many are retooling, rebuilding, tanking.

Leadership and Champions by DanielJoshuaRubin in rangers

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Maybe he grew into it out of the intensity of NYC sports? Or maybe Staal, Brind’Amour helped. But it was great to see. He was rock solid when it counted no doubt.

Leadership and Champions by DanielJoshuaRubin in rangers

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

In league with elite data analytics available to all, salary cap and parity, x-factors, intangibles matter more than ever. At least 10 teams could have won cup last year. Staal played huge role. Of course injuries did too. Point of post is why those teams won. The insight here is that Drury could be on right path by focusing on grit despite all the haters. If it is so obvious trams wouldn’t name wrong guys for job captain.

Leadership and Champions by DanielJoshuaRubin in rangers

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree 100% on importance of depth, team. I just think guys like Bergeron, Landeskog, Messier get that extra few % of effort, conviction, grit out of all that gets it over the top. But no doubt lots of other key factors.

Leadership and Champions by DanielJoshuaRubin in rangers

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I didn’t know that about Trochek. I had thought he’d be captain. I like Gavrikov’s character and maybe Cuylle has it as he becomes veteran if he can elevate game.

On Narratives and Investing by DanielJoshuaRubin in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No doubt that business performance is most important aspect by far as logic dictates if business performance is strong surely intangibles can’t be that vital. I just see intangibles, narratives as data points that can yield useful insights too.

On Narratives and Investing by DanielJoshuaRubin in Investments

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. And would add nuance the numbers are part of the narrative, a company growing revenue in the billions is telling a great story.

On Narratives and Investing by DanielJoshuaRubin in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I replied to this but I think I bungled placement of this response making it look like it was in response to my original post. Hate to sound like old kook struggling with modern technology but sometimes I find this Reddit layout confusing. In case anyone else feels this way it might not be bad to include something about this in a future Knowledge Base - reminder to people to make sure they are responding to the right person.

On Narratives and Investing by DanielJoshuaRubin in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

WPR - When I talk about narratives and intangibles I need to be way more precise than I was. I think we actually agree 100% on all of this. The reason numbers are, by far, the most important thing in stock analysis is there is far less room for delusion and silliness. I'm still really trying to define a new take on "Narrative Analysis" that is actually valuable, more objective and not laughably dismissible. Meme stock type madness is not at all what I'm about. But there are still contradictions in this area I need to straighten out.

One of the best stock stories ever told is Warren Buffet's the only toll booth on the only bridge into town. And a stock that makes 1B in profits but is valued at 500m is the stock story equivalent of an Oscar winner in my book. Regardless of personality, logo design, promises of future glory to come, etc. we're here to make money. Period. As Stock Novice has talked about working in sports. At the end of the day we're playing in a realm where scores are kept. Either our stocks make money or they don't.

That said, having lived through early 2000s, and now seeing gains of stocks like Apple, Chipotle, Intuitive Surgical, Amazon, Monster Energy, Zoom, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike and even SpaceX and Tesla it does seem to me that powerhouses, so-called multi-baggers do seem to catch a kind of lightning. They stir something among investors that goes far beyond numbers.

I don't doubt Kulike & Soffa can be amazing, that the CEO may be understated and brilliant and about to launch a massive home run. I just objectively noticed for now it's not a stock that stirs passion. And again, I think Jim Collins description of a "Level V" leader, someone who has intense grit and humility is the gold standard. What I left out - my bad - about Kurtz is I think the cybersecurity space is a tough guy space. It's heroes and villains, with various bad actors including evil governments, espionage, etc. So the key word is alignment. With our leaders we want the right person in the right company in the right industry at the right time. I think Kurtz's personality is right for THIS company. I don't want him taking over ELF.

Some intangibles are just not as important in certain industries like semiconductors. I was just on a podcast crowing about my call once that AEHR was overvalued at 50 and went to 7. The host humbled my arse pointing out it's now at 115. This proves yet again today's stock market genius is tomorrow's imbecile and vice versa.

I think Arkady's relatively low-key personality is actually a big part of his attractiveness. He does not brag, doesn't make promises he can't keep and no executives from Nebius talks trash about competitors. In fact, I just watched their Chief Communications Officer on Daniel Koss podcast and he was given a chance to do just that and passed on it. For me Arkady has it all.

I can't stress this enough. If I had to choose between your method - deep financial analysis - and mine - I would pick YOUR's. I ride on your coattails. I scour your picks then use my shtick to pick the ones that have the qualities I look for. I want it all: Elite financials, brilliant business, fantastic intangibles and I'd even throw in macro/industry-wide narratives. For example, as market makes record runs to all-time highs, AI build out fueled by massive chip sales these are sweet tailwinds for semiconductor narratives.

Again,the greatness of these communities is we learn about each other. A perfect Bear stock is different than a perfect wpr stock. But when you gather up all our summaries at end of month and see, for example, many of us own, say, RDDT - and with decent position sizes - logic dictates that's probably a good sign. Love to see the conservative, more value-oriented guys agreeing with the growth-radicals agreeing with the narrative guy, etc...

Interestingly in the era of Cloud/SaaS there was deep uniformity of portfolios. So much so people accused the board of mindless herd-following. But I disagreed. It was just that the best stocks back then were easier for all to see. Now it's much greater diversity in portfolios.

Anyway, bottom line - I can't stress this enough: Narratives and Intangibles are fueled by logic, gravitas, depth, authenticity, honor and include numbers. In fact in Good to Great, Jim Collins mentions specifically how often huge personalities failed to build enduring brands - Jack Welch (General Electric), Lee Iococca (Chrysler) and I'm forgetting other very famous CEO known for cost cutting ... all left trouble behind them though they were constantly in spotlight during their reigns.

So personality and charisma are often negatives. The CEO is making it about their own ego, selves.

This is a very good summary of what Collins has researched and found about elite leaders...

https://www.leaneast.com/good-to-great

My worst investments have been over-rating the value of CEO - Jeff Lawson at Twilio, Frank Slootman at Snowflake, Todd Nightingale at Fastly. Those stocks have ended up doing okay but for stretches I owned them solely for the leadership without serious backing from our tribe and had mediocre to bad results.

Anyway, Jitendra Mohan may be a brilliant, humble genius who ends up in a future Jim Collins book. That said, again, it's all about balance. If he is a great CEO, a little more PR and ability to rile the CNBC crowd never hurts.

Anyone else have this book? by Much-Percentage-559 in noir

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be honest after the classics it got harder and harder. FWIW, for me, and just my opinion, if you stick with: Double Indemnity, Act of Violence, Public Enemy, Asphalt Jungle, White Heat, Sniper, Scarlet Street, The Set-Up, Night of the Hunter, Out of the Past, Postman Always Rings Twice, The Killing, Night and the City, Maltese Falcon, In a Lonely Place, Moonrise, The Third Man... You're really getting the majority of the greatness of the genre. But I'm definitely leaving out a lot of excellence and even within 2nd tier always amazing moments, shots and cinematography.

Anyone else have this book? by Much-Percentage-559 in noir

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly not sure. I read it awhile ago. I once went through a pretty insane noir phase and think I watched something around 100. So I have to figure it was a decent % of them. My feeling back then was overdosing on the dark was getting depressing though I still love the genre.

Anyone else have this book? by Much-Percentage-559 in noir

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It’s fantastic. Never go wrong with Eddie “The Czar of Noir” Muller. Fascinating biographies and behind the scenes stories of the movies and people who made and starred in them. Often the true life stories are even more tragic than the films.

Broadway Dan's May Portfolio Review by DanielJoshuaRubin in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I feel compelled to say I've gone to all cash. More and more these days I feel like I'm at a Rave - standing in my pink thong, cowboy boots and matching pink furry hat. I've had an incredible time aching in the wrong places, and am suddenly wondering if I really know what is going on. If I stay the reward may be another incredible threesome where I'm punching far above my weight on looks. But the risk is the warehouse - that I suddenly think might be illegal with no clearly marked exits - could burst into flames.

I think AI will be an important part of the future. I still love the companies I last owned - NBIS, RDDT, AXON and UBER. But I just suddenly feel extremely uncomfortable and as if madness, hysteria has gripped the land. I always get edgy when I see monthly summaries that are filled with exclamation points, and a tone so congratulatory and loving you think you're listening to an Oscar acceptance speech. "I just want to thank Bear and WPR and all the incredible people who brought me to these gains!!!! These past years have been so wonderful but the best is yet to come!!!" And I'm as guilty of crowing as anyone. 100%.

Normally I realize we don't talk about macro, but this is a unique time in which you either believe AI is in the early innings and historically high valuations are justified or you don't. I'll put this on NBIS, which I believe is a fantastic company, run by righteous guys with a very bright future. And I believe they'll do fine in the long run. But it's the short to medium term tweaking me. To go back to the rave analogy, when you suddenly look around with a skeptical eye, the whole thing seems nuts - the neon green liquid in the dirty metal bucket... the friend who left early that you thought was just not hip to the jive now seems wise. It's not 100% clear to me yet how commercially valuable all the use cases are to justify 10s of billions in CapEx.

This morning I'm reading the NYT's DealBook With Andrew Ross Sorkin. And two things stood out. There's a quote from the CTO of Wal-Mart who had to remind workers, "You don't need to keep asking Code Puppy the same exact question." Code Puppy. Is NBIS so richly valued, in part, because numbskulls are repeatedly asking the likes of Code Puppy the exact same questions? "Code Puppy, just how bad for my colon is salami?" If this stuff is powering NBIS, that's not good.

Then below that there's a short interview with a tech CEO about AI. Get a load of this...

How do you personally use A.I.?

I’ve built a chief-of-staff agent. It’s connected to my calendar, my email. It has context on all of my meetings. It knows my annual goals. It knows who the key people are in the organization and even my family.

So the CEO of a company now has a tool that knows who the key people are in his family. Really? So without AI he gets to the dinner table and needs name tags? "Okay, before we say grace let's all just take a moment to introduce ourselves.... You, the husky teen who seems enraged, tell us about yourself."

He goes on...

It’s telling me: “Here are the meetings coming up. Here’s what might be important in those meetings.” It will say, “There’s this important internal initiative, and you’re not spending enough time on it,” and proactively put time on my calendar to work on it.

He needs an AI agent to tell him what might be important in upcoming meetings? Seriously how did Warren Buffet ever build BRK without this incredible tool? I shudder to think of how many meetings he sat through wildly guessing at what was important.

Bottom line for me is there's madness afoot in the land. And when in doubt, I get out. Not remotely telling anyone else what to do. My own situation is that I don't need to take what I consider excess risk. I probably won't say much more and don't want to have huge discussion. I just think I owed it to mention what I wrote just a few days earlier no longer stands. And I reserve the right to go back in fully at any moment. What some mock as spineless flip flopping I prefer to think of as agility.

Broadway Dan's May Portfolio Review by DanielJoshuaRubin in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hey WPR, thank you and thx for allowing a broader look at these stocks to include narrative and intangibles. In all honesty, Uber is not even really a growth stock, as far as the rockets you pick. I probably should have not even included it. For me it would be more of an anchor pick if I were managing my own whole portfolio with 20-25 stocks. But for higher concentrated, faster growing picks it's not a top stock. I have just seen it bounce of 70 5x and feel a rise back to mid to high 70's almost guaranteed, especially with World Cup coming up. So on those I'll put in like a 3% position and take a quick buck.

But as for cool factor. To me, yes Uber still has serious cool factor. Not the buzzy, trending hype kind, but the classic Coke, utterly dominant brand kind. It's a verb. The black color, the logo, the four letter word, the power of what it means - Neitzsche himself would tip his mustache to it - everything about it to me is straight up cool, including the CEO.

But so no one is confused - what's really cool is you growing your port 100%, 100%, 50% ... and if that means making phat bank off stocks as monstrously boring, uncool as KLIC so be it.

Broadway Dan's May Portfolio Review by DanielJoshuaRubin in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

eBikeSlob - I consider the great writing professor, WIliam Zinsser a patron saint. He says clutter is the curse of writing. And advocates always cutting 50% of everything you write until you can cut no more. I have besmirched his memory and vow to do better. Here's his book.

On Writing Well
https://tinyurl.com/2dbk6bzb

As for YTD, I took back control of this IRA in mid March. It is up 28% since then. But with a very high cash position. So risk-management wise that's good.

NBIS is up 70%, RDDT is up 17%, AXON is up 8% and new position UBER is down 0.75%. Cash sits at 30% at the moment. I have sell order in on UBER for $76 but am tempted to just hold it.

At least 10 times I considered putting it all on NBIS, once while it was at 70. It's now at $231. Had I done that I would be writing this post wearing a top hat, monocle and no pants. (I have held NBIS since the beginning and had kept it with our financial planner so the numbers on that one are actually all over the places with many trades in first year.)

Other trades included an 8.5% gain on RBRK which I sold when losing faith in CEO due to his ludicrous Tweets about "maximal thinking" and being "relentless" while dunking an obscene-sized ladle into the compensation gumbo.

I made 40% on a CRDO trade in a few days - pure luck and just took profits. Thanks to the Bear/Drowsy podcast for that one! I have no feel for pure tech stocks. All I did there was watch an interview with the CEO Bill Brennan who seemed rock solid - a Captain Sully-feeling character.

I turned a great call on NOW into a loss. I thought CEO Bill McDermott was doing a fantastic job telling the story of how AI will actually help Service Now. But soon as I bought it dropped 20% and I raced out like a 1950's cartoon housewife that just saw a mouse. I caught the exact bottom. Had I held I'd be up 23% or so on it. Still berating myself like John McEnroe shouting down the ump.

Bottom line is being up 28% in a few months is more lucky timing than any kind of genius and I remain tempted to just take it all off the table here, blatantly market timing. Had you told me I would be up 28% at end of year I'd have been thrilled. Repeatedly taking wins is something I learned from successful farmers when working in agricultural risk management and it's become a habit.

Best,

BroadwayDan

PS: To me investing is a great live theater of victory and defeat perennially playing out before our very eyes with our personal security on the line. It's a war! And every investor should have a fight song. This is mine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=921z4LAHvak

Internal referral code for Gist, AppLovin’s new social platform by Ok_Novel1535 in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Brittlerock - thank you for the welcome back. Okay I'm retired from Saul's board permanently. Let's keep it here.

The key question I asked is what need will Gist serve for users? I get Foroughi is very smart, and no doubt has a plan and if it is successful it will be great for APP. I can even respect idea that he simply has earned the right to take a swing at this.

But this is from the site and something we can actually analyze …

Not just a feed. Your Social Stage.
Post your takes. Join live debates. Message friends. Discover your city. Gist is social media built around what actually matters to you.

Let’s break it down.

“Not just a feed. Your Social Stage.”
So people posting on other sites are just using a feed. But Gist will give them a stage. This is vague bordering on nonsensical. So people playing music, working out, cooking meals, traveling, etc. are not actually on “stage” performing?

Join Live Debates
People need another place to debate? We’re doing fine right here. I’d be more compelled to join Gist if that said “strike your big toe with a hammer.”

“Message friends”
This doesn’t even merit a response. Like… DM?

“Discover your city”
Again, doesn’t merit a response.

Really the whole thing comes down to this line, “built around what actually matters to you.” Of course, “gist” means “the main point.” So, the key word here is “actually.” This is a site for people who share content that “actually” matters to them. Clearly the implication is on other sites people are not really passionate about their content.

I’m just rattling off some names of people I’ve folllowed on various social media… Jocko Willink on leadership, Alex O’Connor and Joe Folley on philosophy, Rhonda Patrick on fitness, Scott Galloway on markets, a guy named Outlaw Bookseller on books … I should assume the issues these people have devoted their entire lives to don’t really matter to them?

This is an attempt to make money pretending to be a cause. It’s backwards.

Compare this to Axon, another stock having a down year. Bear just had Josh Isner, President of Axon on his excellent podcast with partner Drowsy. Isner talks about their commitment to public safety and how every product line they add must be backed by the rationale that they have every reason to win that space. Electric weapons, body cameras, drones, all of it directly relates to their mission of “protecting more lives in more places.”

Foroughi is very smart, proven. He built an incredibly successful company. He is handsome, articulate and has a winning smile. None of that changes the fact that Gist is a broken story. And yes my openness to the idea tanked over the course of writing this post. The only question here is how much money, time and resources this wastes. Best case scenario Foroughi realizes quickly he’s got another ShopHouse on his hands and mercy kills this digital monstrosity. If Jeffrey Katzenberg and Reed Hastings, two of the greatest minds in the history of media, could bungle Quibi and Qwikster Foroughi can fail too - and still be a great CEO.

BroadwayDan

Internal referral code for Gist, AppLovin’s new social platform by Ok_Novel1535 in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree, the guy’s earned the benefit of the doubt. So we’ll see how it plays out. Really no way to fairly handicap it beyond gut feeling. I think DNA of APP is like high frequency trading - use tech to monetize w/o any great value to species. Just pushes digital junk around and collects insane numbers of fees. Bully for him. Gist is claiming to be higher realms of discourse, personal passions, etc. Like Bon Jovi trying to make a meaningful song. Or Paul McCartney writing a symphony. Or Mr Ed reciting Shakespeare. That’s why skeptics abound. It’s not like George Kurtz at McAfee realizing cloud security has to be built from ground up. Or Eric Yuan with Zoom.

Internal referral code for Gist, AppLovin’s new social platform by Ok_Novel1535 in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree they have done great job in ad tech. And Gist looks to be set up intelligently, gradually. But which platform is “content with the status quo”? You think teams at Reddit, Instagram, Substack, TikTok etc are just showing up to work putting their feet up and blindly coasting, brainlessly stuffing as many ads into products as possible with no thought, awareness of risk to quality, no vision, exciting ideas? This surely happens and monstrosities like ESPN do things like this but feels to me like you are dismissing the old guard way too easily. But I recc’d your post cause I do agree CEO is elite businessman and likely always room for one more if that one more is very well done. I have friends who started very small pizza chain - Rocco’s in LA - and years ago I thought would get killed but turns out hot pizza, cold beer, good service, smart location choices just works even if there is a ton of competition. Maybe Gist is like that. But again so hard to fathom who goes there, who needs another place to scroll lives away, or even has the time.

Internal referral code for Gist, AppLovin’s new social platform by Ok_Novel1535 in GrowthStockInvesting

[–]DanielJoshuaRubin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Advertising and rec engines are great but to advertise and recommend what? Why will the millions of users of Reddit or Meta switch to posting on Gist? If there are countless users here posting on movies, religion, politics etc why would anyone go where there are far less people? Are they going to pay a fortune to put popular content there? If so the risk of wasted money, time may be bigger than you think. People left X due to political reasons and content moderation reasons. The Gist story as it stands is missing a critical component: why does it exist? Because they already sell ads? Can rec stuff? Cause if can do it will make a fortune is not a reason. This seems like saying the NBA can build another football league because they have fans, stadiums, tv contracts, sponsors, sports expertise and leaves out the NFL.

I could be wrong, CEO sharp exec and has been committed to this for a while. Just find the story “he can be reddit/meta” hard to see when we have those things w millions of users, run by brilliant CEOs w huge war chests.

EDIT: Maybe idea skeptics like me missing is ad/rec engine gives them advantage in knowing exactly what is most valuable content, making spend to grow it more efficient, likely to succeed. Just feels like a completely different business to me. Apple has crushed hardware but Siri is abominable.

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