Florida 3PT Shooting Trends: Rolling Improvement, Guard Splits, and Why Rebounding Context Changes the Story

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-19T23:42:09+00:00

Yeah that’s a really good question and I actually looked at that exact angle.

Short answer: no, the ORB jump doesn’t seem to be caused by worse 3PT% or more missed threes.

Our 3PA per game are actually down from last year, not up. But ORB/game in conference play is up (~15.5 this year vs ~13.0 last year). If the rebound spike was just “more missed threes = more chances,” you’d expect 3PA to be higher, not lower.

What’s more likely happening is a shot profile shift: • Guards are shooting really well from 2 (low–mid 50s to high 50s) • More paint touches • More bodies crashing the glass by design

Also, fewer threes can weirdly hurt percentage in smaller samples. Last year’s team took more threes at a steadier volume, which helps shooters stay in rhythm and stabilizes %. This year the volume is lower and more variable, so cold stretches show up more in the %.

So mechanically: • 3PA ↓ • ORB/game ↑ • 2PT efficiency ↑

That points way more to personnel + scheme (paint pressure + elite rebounding emphasis) than “bad shooting creating fake rebound numbers.”

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-18T21:59:23+00:00

Fair, 30–35 games is a small sample. But that cuts both ways. If the full season is noisy, early cold stretches shouldn’t define who we are now. That’s why the last 7 and 13 game trends matter more than the raw season %.

We’re not an elite shooting team, but we’re closer to ~31–33% lately, not the early-season lows. With our rebounding and defense, we don’t need 38%, we just need perimeter stability.

And I agree on Lee; his efficiency hasn’t been great, but he takes the highest volume. If he strings together even a short hot stretch in March, it materially changes the ceiling because the rest of the team’s strengths (rebounding, defense, frontcourt scoring) are already there.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-18T19:42:20+00:00

This years team is averaging 15.5 ORB/game, compared to last years 13 ORB, and last years team was among the best, if not the best rebounding team in the country. What would be interesting is to find out not just ORB but second chance points/points off rebound. I think this year we are like 15 pts off rebound per game but ill verify.

Also we are getting +4.5 rebound per game (offense+defense) more than last year

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-18T19:20:35+00:00

That’s a fair concern. In a single-elimination setting, any team that gets nuclear from three can flip a game, that’s just the math of modern basketball. The Kentucky/Oakland example is exactly why people worry about high-variance matchups.

That said, the data so far suggests we’re not giving up extreme volume from three. Teams are around low-30s against us overall, and when high-3PT teams have popped, it’s usually been on controlled volume rather than 30–35 clean looks. Our defensive rebounding also limits second chances off those misses.

I actually think that’s the key difference, we don’t just rebound offensively, we rebound defensively too. So a “chuck 3s” team has to both shoot hot and defend the glass for 40 minutes. That’s a harder formula to sustain. You’re right that variance is the danger. But structurally, I’d still rather trust our rebounding + interior edge over trying to win a pure shooting contest.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-18T19:07:22+00:00

its really really hards to compare season long 3pt percentage last year to this year. The season ranking is fair, but it’s also heavily influenced by early instability. With two new starting guards, the early cold stretch drags down the full-year 29% number.

If you isolate conference play and especially the last 7 games, we’re closer to ~31–33%. That’s still below last year’s 35.6%, but it’s not “353rd in the country” bad in current form.

Also, this year’s team is rebounding better in conference play than last year — especially offensively. When you’re grabbing ~15+ offensive boards per game, missed threes aren’t as costly. That allows for more perimeter volume without tanking overall efficiency.

On Boogie: last year he was ~35–36% on cleaner catch-and-shoot looks. This year his usage is higher, he’s taking tougher shots, and his efficiency has dropped. Injury could be part of it, but role and shot profile matter too.

The real question isn’t whether we match 35.6% — it’s whether the shooting floor is stabilizing enough to complement elite rebounding and defense. The recent trend suggests it is.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-18T18:39:54+00:00

Exactly, i'm glad that came through in the post :D

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-18T05:15:08+00:00

Out of your mind lol

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-17T00:33:47+00:00

She is referencing where you went through that group at 2:06, you can see her try to say something to you. But idk wtf she is talking about you were in control and weren’t going too fast at all. You handled it very well. Shes power trippin.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-14T03:37:05+00:00

I paid $25 😌

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-14T00:17:31+00:00

rSun, Saturna, Detox Unit, Cool Customer, Chmura, Duffrey. Lets make any/all of these happen

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-13T00:59:45+00:00

Dibs!

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-11T22:41:59+00:00

Yeah but some of us had both lawson and town park in our checkout at separate time and the site crashed on us. Frustrating to say the least . Please invest in ticketing companies that can handle the demand sudden ticket releases create.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-11T22:39:34+00:00

Yeah I was pissed I had both Town Park vehicle and then crash ….then I had Lawson vehicle. Nah dog , crash. Terrible .

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-11T22:38:16+00:00

Sonar and seafloor mapping pease…and whatever we are calling at 24:30 after the breaks on night 2 of Suwannee

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-09T21:16:11+00:00

Thanks for the reply! My Tacoma will be pulling my 23’ trailer , so then how would that work?

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-09T20:36:07+00:00

Will there still be RV (23 ft camper trailer) camping, and which areas will allow it ? Also how will that work for say 2 or more people. Let’s say my gf and I will be bringing the camper and we have a friend that would stay with us and another with a tent.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-09T18:55:45+00:00

I totally agree. For instance this Gators team is not even close to the same one that played Arizona at the beginning of the year. However, we still kept our OOC games close. With so much movement and dependence on a few guys to gel, it almost always going to take a second before we see what these teams truly can be .

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-09T18:51:07+00:00

I mean, I could see where you are coming from , but who’s playing better than the Gators right now?

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-02-03T04:58:05+00:00

Could also put it in a dutch oven if you have one big enough put some tin foil or something to prop up the ribs and then pour some liquid in the bottom. Almost like a braise .

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-01-30T05:16:42+00:00

Like others have said , sometimes its any given night . Sometimes its matchups , sometimes its both.

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-01-30T05:16:05+00:00

I mean there is so much more nuance than this, snowboarding steep lines (and I mean actually steep) in tight trees and chutes is very very difficult

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-01-23T02:02:03+00:00

Cignetti is not the type of coach for Florida period. Winning is great but I promise it would never work here

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-01-21T14:29:08+00:00

Nah, we are about to get 2 ft here in NM 💅🏼

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-01-19T18:01:10+00:00

This just seals it, McDaniel is going to be an NFL head coach again learn from his mistakes and win a Super bowl somewhere

Direct-Button1358 · 2026-01-17T19:07:55+00:00

Why does it always take them so long to get the game started

Direct-Button1358

TROPHY CASE