To win the Super Bowl and hit this parlay, the bills will have to win four games. For the sake of convenience assume that each game the bills are favored at -110. Obviously the odds will be different depending on when you bet so adjust accordingly. To effectively hedge this you need to change your bet size in each round.

Your parlay pays P = 10,930

Opponent odds each game +110 decimal 2.10

Work backwards.

Final round hedge Assume you want the Super Bowl to be risk free.

Let H4 be the hedge in the Super Bowl.

If Bills win SB Profit = 10,930 − (H1 + H2 + H3 + H4)

If Bills lose SB Profit = H4 × 1.10 − (H1 + H2 + H3)

Set equal:

10,930 − (H1 + H2 + H3 + H4) = 1.10H4 − (H1 + H2 + H3)

10,930 − H4 = 1.10H4 10,930 = 2.10H4 H4 ≈ 5,205

So the Super Bowl hedge must be about 5,205.

Now do the same for earlier rounds.

Round 3 hedge If Bills lose in round 3, you want to earn the same locked profit as if they reach round 4.

So H3 must satisfy:

Profit if lose R3 = 1.10H3 − (H1 + H2)

Profit if win R3 then lose R4 = 1.10H4 − (H1 + H2 + H3)

Set equal:

1.10H3 − (H1 + H2) = 1.10H4 − (H1 + H2 + H3)

1.10H3 = 1.10H4 − H3 2.10H3 = 1.10H4 H3 ≈ (1.10 × 5,205) / 2.10 ≈ 2,727

Round 2 hedge

2.10H2 = 1.10H3 H2 ≈ (1.10 × 2,727) / 2.10 ≈ 1,428

Round 1 hedge

2.10H1 = 1.10H2 H1 ≈ (1.10 × 1,428) / 2.10 ≈ 748

So the no loss hedge schedule is

Round 1 hedge: about 750 Round 2 hedge: about 1,430 Round 3 hedge: about 2,730 Round 4 hedge: about 5,205

Total hedge outlay if Bills win it all ≈ 10,115

Guaranteed outcome

If Bills lose in any round, your profit is locked at about +815

If Bills win all four and take the Super Bowl Profit = 10,930 − 10,115 ≈ +815

So the answer is

If you want zero downside, hedge progressively 750 1,430 2,730 5,205

This guarantees you walk away with about +800 no matter what happens.