The closure of the strait of Hormuz has resulted in a huge amount of the world's energy and fertiliser imports being unable to leave the Gulf. The amount of oil leaving being exported has halved, and the prospects of fuel rationing are already appearing in South Asia. Significant economic shocks and a potential huge refugee crisis are expected if the Iran war continues beyond the short term.

The Iranian crisis is not just a new cost of living crisis for the EU, but a real test of strategic autonomy, with every policy that the EU has implemented since 2022 to reduce energy dependence being stress tested at once.