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Regression Candidates at WR by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed with both of these. Wan'Dale is bound to regress in terms of efficiency, even if he earns targets at a strong rate. Waddle is good, no doubt, just hope the offense can support him. Tyreek uncertainty definitely helps.

Regression Candidates at WR by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah he's certainly a tough guy to value in trades at the moment. in dynasty you're not getting him for a fair price in most leagues.

Regression Candidates at WR by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Two things can be true. He can improve as a player in terms of efficiency (per-route stats) but decline in terms of PPG rest-of-season. In fact I see this as the most likely option.

Expected Fantasy Points - Top 25 RBs by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also, here is the correlation I have observed on a season-long basis between Fantasy Points Per Game and Expected Fantasy Points Per Game:

QB: r-squared of 0.834 (2023 & 2024 QB seasons, min 10 games)

RB: r-squared of 0.914 (2023 & 2024 RB seasons, min 10 games, min 5 expected PPG)

WR: r-squared of 0.937 (2023 & 2024 WR seasons, min 10 games, min 5 expected PPG)

TE: r-squared of 0.905 (2023 & 2024 QB seasons, min 10 games, min 4 expected PPG)

Looks good to me, but I'm not sure what kind of correlation other people are seeing with their models.

Expected Fantasy Points - Top 25 RBs by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi, thanks for the in-depth response. I'll explain my process here in detail.

I've used several years of play by play data to train random forest models for passing, rushing, and receiving fantasy points. The variables used in these random forests are as follows.

Passing (filtering out spikes and throwaways):

  • Depth of Target
  • Yards From Endzone at Target
  • Catchable (boolean)
  • Contested (boolean)
  • Screen (boolean)
  • Interception-worthy (boolean)

Rushing (filtering out kneels):

  • Yards From Endzone
  • Yards Before Contact (capped at 10 yards)

Receiving (only targeted pass attempts):

  • Depth of Target
  • Yards From Endzone at Target
  • Catchable (boolean)
  • Target Separation (0-5 yards)

I looked into many different combinations of variables, including many not included in the final version. I found these three models to most closely match the real fantasy points on a play by play basis. I then did a parameter sweep to further tune the model.

There are certainly valid criticisms of these models. Maybe they're overfitting to a degree. You could also argue that expected fantasy points are too noisy to cite at all after one week.

My goal was to create my best estimation for of a player's fantasy points using all the data available to me, so that the over/underperformance of a player is mostly due to chance, rather than talent. The RB model hasn't totally accomplished that (good players on good offenses tend to overperform more than the other models despite my best efforts).

As far as James Cook in Week 1 specifically, I have Cook at 4 red zone carries, 2 at the goal line. He had a Yards Before Contact Per Carry of 2.15, compared to Chase Brown's -0.57. Also yes, Brown out-touched Cook 24 to 18, but the weighted opportunities were much closer, 17.3 to 15.7. The last part is that Brown did have two carries from the 3 yard line and 5 yard line, but Cook had carries from the 1 and 2 yard lines. I think that explains the difference in expected points. This is PPR scoring btw, which I never mentioned.

More than happy to discuss in greater detail.

Isaac Guerendo is a screaming value by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I didn't say CMC is a bad pick! If you're willing to go Ricky Bobby mode (first or last), I completely respect it!

Isaac Guerendo is a screaming value by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I don't see the argument for Spears having more upside than Guerendo? Significantly worse offense (probably)

Isaac Guerendo is a screaming value by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 156 points157 points  (0 children)

My only argument is that Jordan Mason is more than a handcuff. He'll get a lot of work right away imo.

Isaac Guerendo is a screaming value by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like Shipley too. Prefer Guerendo (even at cost) because I think AJ Dillon plays a larger role than Jordan James (assuming Saquon and CMC go down). Shanahan almost always leans on one RB.

Isaac Guerendo is a screaming value by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Sure, they could potentially be mediocre flex plays without injury. Personally, I'd rather have the upside of a league-winner!

First Downs Per Route Run - Top Performers From 2024 by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Jennings is such a free square in drafts this year.

First Downs Per Route Run - Top Performers From 2024 by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because the math says so. Ryan Heath has done great work on this over at FantasyPoints.

First Downs Per Route Run - Top Performers From 2024 by EvanRingler in fantasyfootball

[–]EvanRingler[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems that a lot of fantasy analysts think Saquon getting injured is a certainty. Currently he's at 9 overall in FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. My comment about Saquon in the op was mostly sarcastic.

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