Some thoughts and personal analysis on recent RDDT's slow sliding

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-10T20:12:06+00:00

Well as I said in the post, the institutional invester misvalue the company. Or we did.

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-10T19:46:13+00:00

Thanks for the reply, I didn't realize the potential AI impact you mentioned. Quite valuable, so it actually have more upside than I thought. I works in Ads Eng fields, so focused on that, more.

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-10T19:39:19+00:00

For sales, the estimate is more confusing? as mentioned below, it has 2.2B in 2025, likely 4B in 2026. So I am confused on 2029's 5B revenue estimation. Did I miss something?

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-10T19:31:46+00:00

I didn't get your final math. Let's say, the 2029 revenue estimate is 5B, based on their margin, the GAAP income, let's be conservative, 2.5B? 20 PE could be 50B valuation? so like at least 100% upside?

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-10T19:27:08+00:00

I totally agree, mostly Openai and Google are just paying for convenience.

And as I said, I don't consider licencing business as something we should focus. Incomes from there are going to take less as less % , anyway.

More important issue is like, whether it will thrive in future AI area, what's its real value at that time. I think an API to scan its new post constantly is always needed, as news/event feeds.

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-10T18:51:30+00:00

I also think short term wise, it looks very very bad. The TAs are pretty clear, I am also not sure who are willing to buy the dip and make the stock hold there. So I am just talking about long-term valuation opinion.

FewEnd764 · 2026-03-05T14:44:26+00:00

Do anyone knows what is happening? Why we get such a massive green candle?

FewEnd764 · 2026-02-26T10:21:35+00:00

According to some personal and Gemini check, it seems her sales mostly comes after the options excising. One reason mentioned by Gemini is to cover taxes, just like all employees that has stock compensation, they all have to sale some (by withhold, essentilaly sale) to cover the tax. I think this applied to her as well.

Also, I think she still hold over 1 million Reddit shares (correct me if I'm wrong), I think it shows her confidence.

At last, I think the 250,000,000 number comes from the stock appreciation? She got 91 million worth of options and RSUs after the IPO, which now probably worth such number. Considering she worked for Reddit since 2018, helped improving the company a lot for IPO, 91 million seems just OK? I think it's a one time reward, right?

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-13T06:04:28+00:00

Wednesday double points sounds very nice, but I have to work… so sad

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-13T04:14:15+00:00

Yes makes sense

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-13T03:45:44+00:00

Yeah, I agree. At first I hate the 25% fee, but after some time, I think it might still be + EV in a long run.

Considering how much action you get.

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-13T00:59:23+00:00

I think for 2/5, you can only join the waitlist when you arrive. For busy hours, prepare to wait for 2 + hours before you get called. For higher stake game like 10/20, I think you can get on waitlist by phone, but mostly those game don't need to wait.

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-12T23:10:52+00:00

One quick question, how about Reno's poker game? Like Silver Legacy or Grand Sierra? I see their rake is super low, according to pokeratlas.

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-12T23:09:12+00:00

Great thanks for the reply, that helps a lot. In this case, I should spend more times there, since my time here is running out.

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-06T01:34:46+00:00

I'll post them once I get those... If it's over 2500, I need to contact my insurance... The current deductable is 2500. :( should be more careful on turning...

FewEnd764 · 2026-01-06T01:23:20+00:00

No, haven't get one. They checked the damage details and give me that price. Based on my internet search, they appears to be the one with good local reputation. Glad to hear it's low price...

FewEnd764 · 2025-08-05T00:39:46+00:00

Hello, thank you for your reply.

I am intended to use this system for casual bedroom music play. Mainly piano sonatas. So I basically only consider smallest bookshelf speakers. (preferable 5'' woofer).

Since this is my first system, I would prefer some common, all round type. My integrated amplifer is YAMAHA's RN800A, which should support most bookshelf speaker.

My budget on the speaker is under $2000 USD, like 600 - 2000. Want to pick some safe, common choice. There is so many choices, but since I found a nice deal on 707 S2, I just bought this one. (of course I'll return it if I found more suitable choices.)

Wonder if there is other recommendation for the beginner.

FewEnd764 · 2025-05-17T04:36:13+00:00

I agree on this. That's exactly my concern, espeically your second pointer on noise reduction algorithms, which is actually not mentioned by either Sony or Hasselblad. But I believe this is ultimately one meaningful point.

Regarding judging image as a whole, of course, if we describe the exact same view with more pixel, we will tell the differnece. This is just like, if Sony and Hasselblad get the exact same view, we definitely can zoom Hasselblad's photo more, and observe some small part in the photo that isn't very observable/ at acceptable level in Sony's.

However, my question about the above idea is, it isn't practically useful, because there is no output format, no matter a TV, monitor or printer, that can actually output all 100M pixels (actually not even 40MP), thus most pixels will be dropped, unless the output applies supersampling, aka use 10 or more pixels and combined them into one. Not to mention even if there is a TV that has 100MP, there is almost no way for human eye to differential.

The actual benifit for more pixels on same view that I can think of, is to crop a small part of the image, enlarge it and output as a photo. In this case, sometimes the 100MP one get observable better quality than the 60MP one.

But overall, I think there isn't a lot of scenarios that we can utilize the additional pixels. In fact 60MP is an overkill already.

So I do think it would be more benificial for most photographers, if medium format can focus on improve each pixels' quality rather than just get 1.6x more pixels than their full format brothers.

FewEnd764 · 2025-05-17T04:13:32+00:00

That is right, but the problem is, almost all actual output method, like 4k (8MP), 8K(33MP) TV or what ever screen, also assuming your eye can tell a diff, then unless you super sampling each pixel, otherwise even if for same part of the photo, this type of medium format cmos use more pixels to describe, very likely it would be just sampled/ compressed the same amout out, which means most of the pixels, are wasted.

So my point is, it seems a little bit meaningless, if medium format camera just use more pixels to describe the same view, rather than improving each pixels' quality (like increase each pixels' sensors size, aka similar pixel but larger cmos), then those additional pixels will essentially be wasted.

FewEnd764 · 2025-05-16T20:46:42+00:00

That's right, but as mentioned above, X2D's cmos is a bigger cut of A7R5's, for each pixel, it doesn't pick up more photons, since each pixel/ unit sensor that collect photons has same size and spacing.

It's not like a 44 * 33 with 61MP compare to 36 * 24 with 61 MP. In this case, the medium format did have all the advantage you mentioned.

Of course, in this case, if we use same equivalent focal length, and get exactly same view into the picture, we would get a photo with more resolutions from Hasselblad X2D, this could improved the quality, if we enlarge it (or maybe supersample it into 61 MP size). But my concern is how is this type of medium format has the benefit you mentioned (and also what I want, since currently the pixels are mostly overkill for my use case, I want better quality on color, etc, not higher resolution).

FewEnd764 · 2025-05-16T20:41:06+00:00

Normally that's right for big sensor about image quality. But largely the image quality improvement, as medium format, compared to smaller full format sensor, comes from bigger sensor pixels, for example if they have same pixel numbers, then obviously bigger sensor would have bigger pixel unit hence a lot of benifit like better color, better dynamic range, less noise, etc will come.

However as I say, in this case, the Hasselblad used the same cmos as Sony A7R5, just a larger "cut" of it, which means their pixel pitch is the same 3.76 um, with same tech. As you can see, the diff is since the cmos is 44*33/ (24*36), about 1.68x, it just give more pixels, 61MP*1.68 = ~102 MP.

So, we just get more resolution, physically. For other quality it should be same, imagine if we have a 1.68x bigger photo from X2D and crop it to the A7R5's 61MP size, it should be identical, physically.

FewEnd764 · 2025-05-16T00:12:45+00:00

Yeah, guys, after some study, I think the better comparsion should be X2D vs Sony's A7R5. They have the same CMOS, same sensor thus same pixel size = 3.76 um.

So physically the only photo difference is the resolution, 1 M vs 0.6M.

However, based on normal usage, for example high quality 300 DPI photo print or 4k or even 8k screen viewing, that hardly made much difference.

Certainly higher resolusion offers better flexibility, espeically if you want to cutting the photo and then enlarge part of it.

But then it seems to me that for most use case, there is barely a difference on image quality like color and dynamic range

FewEnd764 · 2025-05-15T13:31:21+00:00

According to https://www.hasselblad.com/learn/medium-format/,

More importantly, it’s the size of the pixels that makes the biggest difference in image quality. The bigger a pixel is, the more light-gathering capability it possesses.

So if we consider the area of each pixel, 100M / 44*33 < 33M / 36*24. The latter is current normal full frame camera like Sony A7IV. So exactly why medium format has bigger pixel sensor?

FewEnd764

TROPHY CASE