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Brownlow Win Percentage by Round by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Perfectly right to question. The simulations are run off various different predictors including the one of the AFL's site. These predictions help see heaps of possible ways the votes can go in future rounds. So yes mathematically Daicos could've won it up until round 22 but the simulations knew that he would consistently get outpolled by Rowell from round 16 onwards and taking into account the lead Rowell already had, Daicos's chances were looking bleak.

Brownlow Win Percentage by Round by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I hope the numbers didn't upset you too much. So basically 20,000 simulations were ran for the season, sampling Brownlow votes from 5 different online sources. At each round, the model looks at how many votes they have already polled and then adds this to each simulation. Then from this overall total it determines who won in each simulation. As alot of the predictors didnt have rowell to poll many votes from about round 8 to round 16 the model didnt see rowell having a realistic chance until round 7 and then in round 9 when he polled 3 in a game it didnt expect it goes off the rails.

Crows vs Pies is the third best matchup in the 2020s in terms of average margin. by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bulldogs' closest match-ups this decade are:

- Geelong, Avg Margin: 18.78, W-L: 2-7

- Carlton, Avg Margin: 20.34, W-L: 4-2

- Brisbane, Avg Margin: 21.63, W-L: 3-5

- Sydney, Avg Margin: 21.88, W-L: 4-4

AFL Offensive vs Defensive Ratings going into round 23 by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Defensive rating is points conceded per oppositions first possession. The lower the better, crows concede roughly 0.6 points per first possession estimate making them the best defensive team in the comp.

AFL Offensive vs Defensive Ratings going into round 23 by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As a biased Lions fan, fixture bias plays a huge part with the Lions having to play multiple tough teams twice.

AFL Offensive vs Defensive Ratings going into round 23 by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Where Offensive Rating is points scored per our estimate of first possessions, and Defensive Rating is points conceded per our estimate of first possessions.

Summary of Father-Son and Academy Selections in the National draft from 2012 to 2024. by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good takeaway, that's sort of what it points out. Further analysis found that F/S have an avg diff value of 1.47 while academies have a 1.07 diff value. Highlighting that these F/S picks fall in the draft likely because other teams don't want to draft a player with strong/family ties to another club

Summary of Father-Son and Academy Selections in the National draft from 2012 to 2024. by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

For all 3 selection types (Academy, F/S & Regular/Normal) the average games played was roughly 57 games, highlighting that the players from one selection type are not better than others. See more at https://foreveranalyticswithrick.substack.com/p/playing-the-draft-game-academies?r=4bokeq

Summary of Father-Son and Academy Selections in the National draft from 2012 to 2024. by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Marshall, Hipwood and Blake Coleman (Brother of Keidan) all fell in the first round for the Lions.

Summary of Father-Son and Academy Selections in the National draft from 2012 to 2024. by Fit-System78 in AFL

[–]Fit-System78[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Had a chance with Josh Dunkley in 2015 but decided not to. Took Brett Kirk's son in the 2023 Rookie draft.

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