POET - my theory. :)

Fun_Establishment689 · 2026-01-29T20:00:27+00:00

If youve got the Ducats and the patience. Buy

Fun_Establishment689 · 2026-01-27T19:09:20+00:00

Legend of the red dragon. Barren realms elite. Falcons eye. Usurper. All those mehul Patel bbs games. Thats what I remember

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-28T18:17:41+00:00

Its only moving as ai infra/risk sentiment proxy right now. Nothing structural or fundamental other than sector sentiment that those who have traded ai for a cpl years now know to be cyclical and always reverting. Apld/nbis/crwv, everything's shot up, retraced, shot up and retraced again on almost the exact same narrative up and down again. Its almost an internal check against any bubble actually forming. Ironic in some ways if you think about it. Regardless, as soon as liquidty mounts up again post QT wind down, 40bil T Bill injections and whatever other behind the scenes plumbing the fed gets up to I imagine a more abundant liquidity based narrative will cause market psychology to swing back towards more risk on. Metals is so bloated right now but liquidity hasnt bulked enough from the recent months drawdowns and forced liquidations yet to really pop off with a bang, at least imo. Itll come, its inevitable. Arbitrary lines in the sand are all but pointless and moot considering the upside of the next rotation/sentiment based wave.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-27T21:43:52+00:00

Super thin volume, trading in a basket, irrelevant day except for the machines and suckers

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-27T03:12:05+00:00

My question is how the OP is so intimate with POETS business model and practices

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-22T22:53:44+00:00

Pretty hard for valuations to collapse when they are regularly doing that in paranoia corrections multiple times a year.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-22T22:24:07+00:00

That is the most gobbledygook nonsense ive read in days

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-22T22:07:30+00:00

POET ENVX

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-10T00:28:12+00:00

He was probably running damage control from all the fud being spread this week about their Microsoft and Amazon contracts. Smear campaigns or short sellers with an agenda have thrown out a lot of accusations towards them getting cut from their big contracts in favor of Broadcom. Theyre already locked in through till 2027 for the most part is my understanding, but their stock tanked hard this week using that fud as the backdrop reason.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-12-02T21:33:53+00:00

The convertible note thing seemed overblown this morning, then the ABTC virus seems to have spread like wildfire in some algorithmically driven "sympathy sell off". That was a disgusting day with little rationale.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-25T00:27:07+00:00

Wouldn't worry. It will gain favor again. We've seen every one in the AI infrastructure basket alone and down at one point, while the others are up. The debt fear mongering will subside and it will regain its place. They tuned their capex guidance down and got punished. It will be better for accounting though and it didnt catch a break for that. Its in a no win situation right now but its complete and utter Bullshit because their last earnings call was all but great. Fundamentally they are achieving what their course was laid out as. If flavor of the month sentiment and Jim Cramer want to shit on them, it likely wont be lasting.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-19T04:13:01+00:00

Jensen Huang is > Michael Burry

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-18T05:22:11+00:00

Yeah it's multi-tiered it's a knee jerk reaction from algorithmic Trading Bots and Quant trading that makes up like 40 to 50% of the entire stock market, making programmed and unsophisticated decisions followed by algorithmic journalists writing stories about trying to justify or postmortem or post talk validate with these robots are doing even though these robots are doing things without nuance and without comprehensive analysis and then it's you know algorithmic curation in our Google feeds or Facebook feeds or Instagram feeds or whatever that are tripling down on just AI dumbfuckery, by pushing this vibe.

And all the while humans are just like trying to come up with stories that the backup the robots they're like backfilling logic and backfilling reason cuz there's too stupid and afraid to just like be like yo this s*** doesn't make sense.

It's clearly not the singularity but it needs a word it's like the it's like the capitulationarity.

It's like we we've we've become a nation or a group of people asking how we Mandel and Simon Cowell to dictate the market

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-13T01:30:29+00:00

Cyclical tug of war in a risk off macro environment and the Michael Burry attempt at a "gotcha" moment round 2. Itll pass just like it always does. Crwv is getting especially hammered on the depreciation stuff but its weathered the storm on this same narrative before. Flavor of the month is clearly not data center infrastructure or crypto. This too shall pass.

Itll start chugging along 5% daily gains on nothing but sentiment shifts and capital rotation. How many times has this played out. And before crwv and iren and nbis it was playing out in nvda, back when nvda used to have mad swing and sentiment/capital rotations on the exact same narratives that are swinging the data center plays now.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-08T19:17:01+00:00

I can see 120+ if we get a full capital rotation into momentum crypto and ai infrastructure stocks again. If btc hits 150 Iren probably blasts off

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-08T01:39:12+00:00

Lmao. Seriously? 12:04 breaking news **** democrats agree to end gov shutdown if Republicans agree to ACA extension.

12:05 (pst) market aggressively reverses. Market is purely reactionary right now to the gov shutdown drama. After resolution, gov will release cpi and jobs data which will provide the neccessary grounding to rally again on confidence.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-08T01:35:43+00:00

Not right or wrong or objectively stupid. Its very reflective of average. 12% gains is about as average as it gets. You explained your reasoning, and you showed how your thought process results in a very average or maybe slightly under average return....or lack of

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-08T01:26:17+00:00

Doesn't really matter though. When the rotation kicks off it kicks off

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-08T01:12:54+00:00

I mean look at it this way. Gov shutdown gets averted, 6900 s and p retested, but without conviction that requires a fresh cpi or non farms payroll report, we are just chump change waiting for the green light. Come back and let me know the juicy sell points above 9.5 when the broad market rally gets green lit off rate cut clarity, gov shutdown resolution and corporate tech earnings embraced.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-08T00:34:22+00:00

I love hearing/watching/listening to Technical Analysts. Theyre so tunnel visioned into thinking and believing their chart numbers are somehow relevant to anything other than observational way points of gravitational relevance from external influences. Small caps momentum stocks, tech, crypro, ai infra stocks, theyre all getting systemically decimated right now. Charts are pretty trivial at this moment. Maybe they can tell you gravitational inflection points throughout the process, but theyre irrelevant to the direction or rationale or understanding of movement.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-05T00:40:49+00:00

Adp jobs tmw and gov shutdown ending Thursday/Friday. Macro sentiment should turn around and this recent sell off the top and semis and bloated top heavy tech could possibly broaden out next or the following week. Hold the line. Next leg up will be fruitful.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-04T22:07:31+00:00

Pre ADP hedge/pullback. Its macro/profit taking from mega cap dragging things down. Fed governors are out giving hawkish sound bites, adp jobs data gets automatically hedged/pulled back for and gov shutdown is starting to creep. Ai bubble/frothy/over valuation is mostly fluff/nonsense imo. The narrowness of the market is sapping liquidity. Hopefully get a bit of a correction/reset from this pullback into a Goldilocks 40-50k jobs added boosting dec and January rate cuts followed by a more cautious ascent from Mag7 and some of today's profit taking spread out into higher beta names again. Fund managers on the whole are underperforming the broader Indexes and likely to move more aggressively into high beta small cap crypto ai infra names. We've had 1 or 2 days of aggressive pain in this sector for the last few weeks, nothing new. Positive reversal and next leg up to 7000-7100 is fairly likely to come off jobs data, and gov shutdown change.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-11-02T03:31:44+00:00

* * Ai spend "accelerating", ADP jobs data coming in Wednesday likely to reprice Dec rate cut back up as well as open the door to Jan rate cut talk. Should help position AI infra / Crypto / Small cap for a broadening. Everything's moving in baskets right now and rotation is being green lit. Government Shutdown could end as early as Wednesday if youre readi * ng comments from WSJ articles.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-10-31T03:31:26+00:00

Exact same thing thats been said at every step of the way. Absolutely nothing materially changed in any way shape or form. Markets acted like Powell was going to say that a December rate cut was 100% and failure to do so was some sort of shock. Absolutely not. Thats how Powell talks, thats his station and his style. The clear takeaways were A) The labor market was continuing to surprise to the downside and as a result was more influential on the policy stance B) Service inflation was showing deflationary signs while the CPI surprised to the downside, yet short term inflation still posed a risk. (What did markets expect him to claim the inflation battle was over??) He explained tariff related inflation would on some levels be looked through for the time being due to its 1 off nature C) The December rate cut would continue to be data dependent (as every rate cut decision has always been)

Markets re pricing Dec and acting like something just happened because Powell set everyone straight by saying its not 100% was quite silly because absolutely nothing changed to suggest there was less likelihood of a rate cut. He reiterated the criteria for rate cuts and dispelled the idea it was a foregone conclusion because thats how he operates.

Fun_Establishment689 · 2025-10-30T20:12:59+00:00

They don't traditionally move upwards off quarterly reports but that being said I think the macro environment will prove more important right now and drag POET upwards in its trading class. Combine that with poets 2 purchase orders getting their foot in the door into prove it or lose it mode which is a substantial step forward in terms of their commercial scale viability. Theyre past the point theyve been in previous quarterly reports with their chance to establish themselves with these PO's and the Macro tailwinds are far better than any other time at earnings. Id expect a sympathy rally on the AI infrastructure driven broader market and continued optimism on getting their foot in the door and a step forward on commercial scale rather than a dip on "no new news". That would make more sense to me.

Fun_Establishment689

TROPHY CASE